Amplifying, Reversible, Feedbacks

Matthew Rozsa discusses how a number of experts are wary of oversimplying climate science or cultivating a "fatalistic outlook".

When these scientists question the usefulness of "tipping point" terminology, they are not discounting the genuine threat posed to humanity by global heating. They all agree that climate change is changing the planet in ways that will harm hundreds of millions of people. Yet how we frame these issues is critical to how we start to address them and experts argue that the idea of a single occasion in which humans cross a barrier from "climate change can be fixed" to "climate change is unfixable" is inaccurate.

Rozsa quotes James Hansen:

The delayed response of the climate system to human-made climate forcing is what makes these issues so difficult to communicate with the public. The time scales are very slow as seen by the public, even though human-forced climate change is occurring very rapidly compared with geological time scales.

Rozsa continues.

This is why it's misleading to frame the climate change crisis in terms of a climax or tipping point — it establishes false expectations about how exactly global warming is harming everyone's lives. It is instead more useful to view climate change as a multifaceted dilemma that will require an equally multifaceted response. ... [T]his still emphasizes that the issue is very difficult to beat — but also ... not an impossible dilemma.

Dilemma refers to a difficult choice. I've seen the word predicament used to describe a problem with no solution. The terms could go together to suggest a situation too overwhelming for humans to grasp with nothing but unpalatable options available. The task seems to be to build resilience so that things get worse less quickly. I can see how refering to "tipping points" might impose a sense of a looming deadline when the effort needs to be ongoing.

"Bloodbath"

Speaking about Chinese automobile exports, but reminiscent of his "stand by" comment in 2020, Dear Leader gave a not-too-subtle command:

Now if I don't get elected, it's going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that's gonna be the least of it. It's going to be a bloodbath for the country. That will be the least of it. But they're not going to sell those cars. They're building massive factories.

If this election isn't won, I'm not sure that you'll ever have another election in this country.

Are people taking Fuckface out of context?  Michael Beschloss doesn't think so.

[I]t's important to know as we talk about this campaign, as it unfolds, we have never seen anything remotely like this in American history: a major party candidate is saying, you elect me, there's going to be dictatorship, bloodbath, violence, retribution against my political enemies, that equals what we saw in Italy, in Germany and other places.

Joe Scarborough calls bullshit.

If you think there's going to be a bloodbath in the auto industry ... I'm not sure he's talking about the niceties of international trade. But let's just take that argument as is. Then he goes on and he says, "That’s going to be the least of it," and repeats it. "It's gonna be the least of it."

Obviously, he's talking about a bloodbath for America.

And Rex Huppke thinks the press is being unfair--by ignoring all the other horrible statements he's made.

[T]he man a majority of Republicans believe should be the next president spent the weekend: calling the sitting president a "numbskull"; calling former Republican primary candidates "terrible"; continuing to deny the results of a free-and-fair election; calling immigrants "animals" while continuing to embrace Hitlerian rhetoric, even after being reminded it's Hitlerian rhetoric; swearing; crudely making fun of someone's weight and another person's name; and calling the people who quite literally attacked the U.S. Capitol and assaulted more than 100 police officers "unbelievable patriots."

Update (March 19):  Amanda Marcotte notes that the MAGA fascists didn't invent gaslighting.

[S]aying something risible and then pretending to be misinterpreted was a favorite Nazi strategy to muddy the waters and waste the time and energy of their opponents. The "bloodbath" debacle shows that the comments being argued over don't even really need to be ambiguous in order for fascists to pretend they are open to interpretation.

Marcotte argues the press shouldn't give in to bad faith denials and highlight Fuckface's violence as much as possible.

[A] lot of Americans have no idea how bad he's gotten because they don't pay much attention. The only way they will learn is if the press keeps up a steady drumbeat.

Some options: Dramatically reducing the "Biden is old" stories ... Doing more polls asking voters if they think it's okay ... to make these threats. Bringing in more context, like connecting [Dear Leader's] violent rhetoric to other MAGA aggression ... [A]sking people ... whether they approve of his calls for a "bloodbath." The media knows how to keep a story alive, if they want to.

Update (March 21):  Looks like Charlie Kirk understands his marching orders.

I want to make sure that we all make a commitment that if this election doesn't go our way, the next day we fight.

Update (March 22):  Heather Digby Parton points out that glorifying January 6 criminals as "hostages" and "patriots" is a classic move.

[I]t's more than just another [Fuckface] troll. By creating martyrs out of insurrectionists, [Dear Leader] is deploying a very potent propaganda tool, one that was perfected by, yes, Adolph Hitler during his rise to power exactly a hundred years ago.

And in an interview with Dean Obeidallah, Ruth Ben-Ghiat explains how MAGA is truly fascist, not just right-wing.

Fascists believe that violence is the way to change history. We saw that clearly enough on Jan. 6, 2021, with the attack on the Capitol mean to keep [the former guy] in power despite his loss in the 2020 election.

By defending the insurrectionists, MAGA gets the message that

violence is sometimes morally necessary and even righteous, and even patriotic. [This is] what we call sacralizing violence, giving violence a kind of ritual, religious tone.

[Offering] pardons [is] about encouraging people to do more violence, thinking that they're not going to pay any consequences. That's actually the essence of authoritarianism and fascism: You arrange government so that you can be violent and corrupt, and get away with it.

Wealth Gap Increasing

In their report, Inequality Inc, Oxfam finds that 

Since 2020, the richest five men in the world have doubled their fortunes. During the same period, almost five billion people globally have become poorer.

Oxfam estimates that the wealth of the bottom 60 percent of the world population (4.8 billion people with about 2.26 percent of total wealth) decreased from $10.51 trillion to $10.49 trillion (in constant dollars) from 2019 to 2022 (down 0.2 percent).  This amounts to about $2000 per person.

Meanwhile, the world's 2566 billionaires grew their wealth from $9.58 trillion to $12.84 trillion (in constant dollars) from 2020 to 2023 (up 34 percent).  This amounts to about $5,000,000,000 per billionaire.

One of the Coolest Years for the Rest of Our Lives

NASA announces another record-breaking year.

Earth’s average surface temperature in 2023 was the warmest on record. Global temperatures last year were around 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above the average for NASA’s baseline period (1951-1980).

[This] was about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.4 degrees Celsius) warmer in 2023 than the late 19th-century average, when modern record-keeping began.

The European climate agency Copernicus estimates that 2023 was 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit (0.17 degrees Celsius) above the previous record in 2016. 

Update (January 19):  Two views of the temperature anomalies (with different baselines):

Last year is exceptional--compared to the past.  

Canada's Summer

The wildfires in Canada burned 18.5 million hectares or about 71,000 square miles--an area the size of Washington State.

As of early October, 18.5 million hectares had burned across the country, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre Inc. Preliminary estimates from Natural Resources Canada show emissions from those fires amounted to roughly 2,400 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent – more than triple the 670 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent reported as Canada’s total emissions for 2021 in the most recent National Inventory Report.

Carbon Dioxide Concentration Highest in 14 million years

An article published in Science finds that 420 ppm of carbon dioxide corresponds to when the Earth was as much as 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer.

Too Little and Too Much

Robert Hunziker quotes an estimate of $200 trillion needed to achieve zero emissions by 2050. Meanwhile, the "production gap" is expected to be twice the level of fossil fuels by 2030 than what would be consistent with the 1.5 degree warming limit.