T-Junction

Stan Cox argues the next few years are critical to the kind of future we end up with.

There’s no path leading straight ahead, no more business as usual. Historians of democracy and its decline tell us that we’ll soon be turning one way or the other—either toward a deeper, more diverse, inclusive democracy centered on justice and a livable future for all, or toward life under a corporate-dominated, far-right regime in an ecologically impoverished world.

Out of Reach

UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarks on the Paris Agreement goal.

We are sleepwalking to climate catastrophe. The 1.5-degree goal is on life support. It is in intensive care.

There is no kind way to put it.

The problem is getting worse. If we continue with more of the same, we can kiss 1.5 goodbye. Even 2 degrees may be out of reach.

Meanwhile:

Earth’s poles are undergoing simultaneous freakish extreme heat with parts of Antarctica more than 70 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average and areas of the Arctic more than 50 degrees warmer than average.

Update (June 20):  Parts of the Arctic are warming five to seven times faster than the rest of the world.

Scientists with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute compiled surface air temperatures from islands in the northern Barents Sea from 1981 to 2020. In findings published in the journal Scientific Reports, they wrote that annual average temperatures there are rising by up to 2.7 degrees Celsius per decade, making it the fastest warming region known on Earth.

Becoming Uninhabitable

The second part of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report finds that

Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, despite efforts to reduce the risks.

Matt McGrath reports on major takeaways:

Things are way worse than we thought

Technology is not a silver bullet

The small window is closing fast

Whatever it is about our flawed "intelligence" that makes us as individuals resistant to change, plays out disastrously in terms of civilization. 

Update (March 2):  Eric Schank reflects on AR6.

Building on the previous findings, the report indicates radical action is now necessary to curb climate change after 30 years of insufficient governmental responses to the global threat since the UN first assembled the IPCC to assess the risks of human-induced climate change. Their message was clear then, and it is only more urgent now. Climate action is a matter of survival for millions of people.

Michael Mann is among those who continue to point out that action is still possible and that having agency is a way to counteract despair. It can be important to make the effort even if you still know it's a tough road ahead.

Update (March 4):  Jason Hickel notes a vivid illustration of climate responsibility versus climate vulnerability.

Update (April 5):  While there have been positive trends in the past ten years or so, the third part of AR6 is clear that massive emmissions reductions are still needed to reach climate goals. IPCC panel co-chair Jim Skea:

It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.

Update (April 8):  A chart compares effectiveness and cost of several mitigation options. 

Megadrought

A study published in Nature Climate Change finds that the persistent drought in the western United Statesis now the worst in at least 1200 years.

[W]e show that after exceptional drought severity in 2021, ~19% of which is attributable to anthropogenic climate trends, 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800. This drought will very likely persist through 2022, matching the duration of the late-1500s megadrought.

Lead author Park Williams:

The results are really concerning, because it’s showing that the drought conditions we are facing now are substantially worse because of climate change. But that also there is quite a bit of room for drought conditions to get worse.

 

Disappearing Mountain Glaciers

As part of a general trend, glaciers at high altitude on Mount Everest on thinning at rate 80 times faster than their rate of formation over the past 2000 years, largely through sublimation.

Ocean Heat Content

Despite 2021 being "only" the sixth warmest year on record, the world ocean continues to set new records. Kenny Stancil reports:

According to an annual study published in the peer-reviewed journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, the past five years have been the five hottest for Earth's oceans since measurements began in the late 1950s.

Since the late 1980s, oceans have been warming eight times faster than they did during the preceding decades, and 2021 marked the third consecutive year in which the previous record for annual energy absorption was shattered. These trends, the paper makes clear, are due to "an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

Update (February 12):  Robert Hunziker reports on how warming oceans are causing massive die-offs of marine life. 

Polarization Beyond Repair

A study published in PNAS uses a computer model to point out a particular danger of increasing political and cultural polarization--

the existence of a tipping point beyond which the activation of shared interests can no longer bring warring factions together, even in the face of a common threat.

Nicole Karlis quotes Boleslaw Szymanski:

If the external strong signal does not unite people, we are in danger of getting into this irreversible polarization. In a divided society, it's of course very difficult to maintain that democracy which requires agreements of all people and the people who win elections and lose elections.

It's almost the last call.