Rights Under Attack

If a leaked draft opinion holds up, the Supreme Court is planning to overturn Roe v. Wade.  Fifty years of precedent don't seem to matter--any decision supporting social progress could be rolled back. The arc that bends toward justice might take a few detours along the way.

Oh sure, Congress could pass a law legalizing abortion, but we couldn't possibly get rid of the filibuster just to protect women's rights.

Update (May 8):  John Stoehr suggests Republicans will regret the likely Court decision.

As long as Roe was law, rightwingers could work quietly outside the penetrating gaze of a majority of Americans who, in fact, favor women having rights and privileges on par with men.

Now that Roe is in jeopardy, rightwingers must face the penetrating gaze of the majority that’s no longer putting up their bullshit.

Rightwingers ... can’t tolerate disagreement. It literally hurts them. It causes pain. Disagreement raises the possibility of being wrong, and they can’t be wrong, because if they were, their enemies would be right, and that’s impossible. Rightwingers are always right.

Under the penetrating gaze of a majority of Americans who favor women having equal social status as men, the rightwinger’s black and white thinking is complicated in ways literally painful. They crack up.

Update (May 14):  Could Justice Thomas be any more politicaly tone-deaf?

You would never visit Supreme Court justices' houses when things didn't go our way. We didn't throw temper tantrums. It is incumbent on us to always act appropriately, and not to repay tit for tat.

But it's no problem to attack abortion clinics or murder providers.

Apparently, the leak of the draft opinion poses a grave threat.

I wonder how long we’re going to have these institutions at the rate we’re undermining them, and then I wonder when they’re gone or they are destabilized what we will have as a country. I don’t think the prospects are good if we continue to lose them.

Afterall, when has the Right ever undermined democracy? 

Update (June 24):  Overturning Roe v. Wade is now official.  Amanda Marcotte reacts:

It's fitting that the three judges appointed by a man who literally led a fascist coup would be the ones who allowed this to happen. The end of Roe isn't just a tragedy for human rights. It's the surest sign yet that American democracy is collapsing, and Republicans are securing the ability to force the majority of Americans that keep voting against them to live under minority rule.

Update (June 27):  Astoundingly, Associated Press reports that over 1 million voters across 43 states have switched their registration to Republican over the past year. Maybe the January 6 hearings will change some of that. And Heather Digby Parton suggests the Court decision may stir up some backlash.

Republicans have a problem on their hands with Roe overturned and they know it. All you have to do is watch them stumble and dissimulate on television trying to persuade people they aren't going to keep making life miserable for millions of women and their families.

But there's anger directed at Democrats as well.

It's infuriating that "defend Roe" has been a rallying cry for fundraising, but they've never seemed to take the courts seriously. To anyone paying attention, it's obvious that this was the Republican long game, and the Democrats were content to sit there with their heads in their asses, acting like the moment we're in would never come because of precedent or status quo or whatever.

Update (July 3):  Nolan Higdon and Mickey Huff argue that the Democratic Party has failed to exercise the power it had to protect abortion rights.

Leaders do not blame, they lead. Movers and shakers such as Lyndon Johnson, warts and all, knew that the art of politics necessitated deal-making to get things accomplished. Today's Democrats rely on the art of inaction and lecture voters on what they contend is possible, rather than working to make the purportedly impossible become reality. Their argument is always that if the public wants us to protect X (such as abortion rights), they need to elect more Democrats in November. How many more Novembers are we supposed to wait? Voting for the same milquetoast neoliberal centrists who made the collapse of Roe possible (or inevitable) will do nothing to change our current political reality. Indeed, that is the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Women deserve better, as do all of us. The Democratic Party should recognize this, and change course dramatically.

Paul Rosenberg notes that voters under 35 overwhemingly support Democratic Party positions on issues such as abortion rights, climate change, and Medicare for All, but don't trust the party to fight for those policies. He quotes Fortesa Latifi:

To put it bluntly: Young voters think the United States's economic and political institutions aren't working for them and they don't trust the powers that be to correct the course. Seventy-one percent of respondents say they feel mostly pessimistic about the future and 90% said the country as a whole is "on the wrong track".

And adds:

Young voters overwhelmingly align with Democrats on a broad range of key agenda items, sometimes by a ratio of three to one or even more. But they are deeply pessimistic about their future — about raising a family, owning a home and being able to retire — because of what they perceive as a rigged system that neither party can be trusted to fix.

Rosenberg supports efforts to push President Biden into taking action.

This spring, the Congressional Progressive Caucus issued an "Executive Action Agenda" for the administration, developed "with input from the progressive grassroots movements who were key to delivering Democrats the majorities in both chambers and the White House." (Full list here.) It's precisely this combination — decisive executive action informed by grassroots movements in touch with younger voters' lived experience — that holds the key to realizing the potential for long-term Democratic dominance.

Very little can be done immediately to counter the overturn of Roe, and Democrats and progressives must be honest about that. But taking action on this broader range of issues can help secure a broader majority that can codify abortion rights and do much more, including expanding or reforming the Supreme Court so it no longer represents out-of-touch minority opinion, as it so often has throughout its history. There is an overwhelming untapped majority in favor of such a future. Is anyone in the White House listening?

Update (July 8):  President Biden has signed an executive order to help protect access to abortion. It's frustrating that more can't be done now, but John Stoehr says Biden should get credit for taking some action even if it doesn't seem like enough.

The Democrats should say that there’s a bill sitting in the Senate, already passed by the House, that turns Roe into a statute. The Democrats should say that nothing’s guaranteed, but with more Democrats in the Senate, they have a good chance of reforming the Senate rule (the filibuster) currently preventing Roe from being law.

Update (July 11):  Amanda Marcotte counters that Biden's weak response helps Republicans this Fall.

[T]here is simply no excuse for recoiling from the abortion rights fight and rejecting creative ideas that would draw coverage and attention to the issue. Failure to use abortion as a wedge issue is political malpractice on a stunning scale. We desperately need Democratic voters to turn out in huge numbers in 2022, to save not just Congress but state governments from being taken over by Republicans who fully intend to steal the 2024 election for Trump. But convincing those voters to turn out in the fall means putting up a fight now. Under Biden's leadership, Democrats are failing at their most basic task of persuading voters to turn out this November. Without that, democracy itself, not just legal abortion, is in serious danger.

Update (August 2):  In a hopeful sign for this fall, a larger than usual turnout for a primary election voted to preserve abortion rights in Kansas. 59 to 41 percent!

Update (August 3):  John Stoehr sees a reason to be more optimistic.

For those of us worried about the future of democracy, especially the will of a democratic people to take their destinies into their own hands, last night’s results are about as good as any of us can expect.

And Amanda Marcotte says this is a winning issue for Democrats.

[T]he main takeaway is this: Abortion is being banned despite a strong majority of Americans wanting to keep it legal. That makes the issue a leading indicator of how much democratic collapse this country has already endured. Radical right-wing Republicans manage to hang onto power despite the fact that Democrats — and especially Democratic policies — are way more popular. Even in situations, like this Kansas abortion fight, where Republicans are cheating as much as they can, voters will protect abortion rights. This is why Republicans are working so hard at making sure that voter opinions never matter in American politics again.

Update (August 5):  Marcotte notes that Indiana has already decided again bringing the question to voters.

Enacting abortion bans means keeping the voters as far away from weighing in as possible. This is why Republicans have embraced [Dear Leader's] war on democracy. They know they can't get away with policies like banning abortion if they have to answer to voters.

 

T-Junction

Stan Cox argues the next few years are critical to the kind of future we end up with.

There’s no path leading straight ahead, no more business as usual. Historians of democracy and its decline tell us that we’ll soon be turning one way or the other—either toward a deeper, more diverse, inclusive democracy centered on justice and a livable future for all, or toward life under a corporate-dominated, far-right regime in an ecologically impoverished world.

Out of Reach

UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarks on the Paris Agreement goal.

We are sleepwalking to climate catastrophe. The 1.5-degree goal is on life support. It is in intensive care.

There is no kind way to put it.

The problem is getting worse. If we continue with more of the same, we can kiss 1.5 goodbye. Even 2 degrees may be out of reach.

Meanwhile:

Earth’s poles are undergoing simultaneous freakish extreme heat with parts of Antarctica more than 70 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average and areas of the Arctic more than 50 degrees warmer than average.

Update (June 20):  Parts of the Arctic are warming five to seven times faster than the rest of the world.

Scientists with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute compiled surface air temperatures from islands in the northern Barents Sea from 1981 to 2020. In findings published in the journal Scientific Reports, they wrote that annual average temperatures there are rising by up to 2.7 degrees Celsius per decade, making it the fastest warming region known on Earth.

Becoming Uninhabitable

The second part of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report finds that

Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, despite efforts to reduce the risks.

Matt McGrath reports on major takeaways:

Things are way worse than we thought

Technology is not a silver bullet

The small window is closing fast

Whatever it is about our flawed "intelligence" that makes us as individuals resistant to change, plays out disastrously in terms of civilization. 

Update (March 2):  Eric Schank reflects on AR6.

Building on the previous findings, the report indicates radical action is now necessary to curb climate change after 30 years of insufficient governmental responses to the global threat since the UN first assembled the IPCC to assess the risks of human-induced climate change. Their message was clear then, and it is only more urgent now. Climate action is a matter of survival for millions of people.

Michael Mann is among those who continue to point out that action is still possible and that having agency is a way to counteract despair. It can be important to make the effort even if you still know it's a tough road ahead.

Update (March 4):  Jason Hickel notes a vivid illustration of climate responsibility versus climate vulnerability.

Update (April 5):  While there have been positive trends in the past ten years or so, the third part of AR6 is clear that massive emmissions reductions are still needed to reach climate goals. IPCC panel co-chair Jim Skea:

It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.

Update (April 8):  A chart compares effectiveness and cost of several mitigation options. 

Megadrought

A study published in Nature Climate Change finds that the persistent drought in the western United Statesis now the worst in at least 1200 years.

[W]e show that after exceptional drought severity in 2021, ~19% of which is attributable to anthropogenic climate trends, 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800. This drought will very likely persist through 2022, matching the duration of the late-1500s megadrought.

Lead author Park Williams:

The results are really concerning, because it’s showing that the drought conditions we are facing now are substantially worse because of climate change. But that also there is quite a bit of room for drought conditions to get worse.

 

Disappearing Mountain Glaciers

As part of a general trend, glaciers at high altitude on Mount Everest on thinning at rate 80 times faster than their rate of formation over the past 2000 years, largely through sublimation.

Ocean Heat Content

Despite 2021 being "only" the sixth warmest year on record, the world ocean continues to set new records. Kenny Stancil reports:

According to an annual study published in the peer-reviewed journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, the past five years have been the five hottest for Earth's oceans since measurements began in the late 1950s.

Since the late 1980s, oceans have been warming eight times faster than they did during the preceding decades, and 2021 marked the third consecutive year in which the previous record for annual energy absorption was shattered. These trends, the paper makes clear, are due to "an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

Update (February 12):  Robert Hunziker reports on how warming oceans are causing massive die-offs of marine life.