I think that democracy is at a breaking point. If we can get through the next couple of years, the next three years, then the next five years after that are going to be unbelievably good.
Of course, it hardly seems likely the U.S. can truly prove to be "exceptional" and avoid the fate so many other societies have encountered. And yet, we need to try.
We propose [Earth system boundaries] for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice). ... Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs ... are already exceeded.
Lead author Johan Rockström:
This means that unless a timely transformation occurs, it is most likely that irreversible tipping points and widespread impacts on human well-being will be unavoidable. Avoiding that scenario is crucial if we want to secure a safe and just future for current and future generations.
In the quest for sufficient mineral resources to make green dreams come true, affluent societies will become more dependent on an even more technologically complex, even more physically vulnerable energy supply as they exploit the resources of the global South. Those promoting this quest are all too aware that we are bursting through our planet’s ecological and resource limits.
The alternative to a voracious, high-energy, self-sabotaging economy would be one that provides for just enough material production to equitably ensure a decent, satisfying life for all.
In coming decades, it will be essential that communities across the nation and world find a way to sustain a decent life amid ecological breakdown, in a future they themselves didn’t create.
Update (September 14): An article published in Science Advances finds that six of nine planetary boundaries have been exceeded and two others are heading the wrong way.
Johan Rockström:
We are in very bad shape. We show in this analysis that the planet is losing resilience and the patient is sick.
While researchers have not linked any psychiatric condition to neurobiological variables, there are many links between these conditions and socioeconomic variables. Results from a 2013 national survey, issued by the U.S. government’s Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), provide extensive evidence that unemployment, poverty, and involvement in the criminal justice system are highly associated with depression and suicidality.
Moreover, in the late 1990s, the Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) study revealed a powerful relationship between childhood trauma (including physical and emotional abuse) with later adult emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances. An alienating and dehumanizing society such as ours that creates extensive anxiety, powerlessness, resentment, and rage is a society that creates adults who, in their interactions with children, have little frustration tolerance; and this lack of frustration tolerance makes abuse and trauma of children more likely—resulting in the adverse childhood experiences that create later adult emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances.
The ruling class could not care less whether psychiatric treatment consists of bloodletting, lobotomy, electroshock, SSRI antidepressants, or psychedelic microdosing. As long as the "ruling idea" of society is that our emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances are caused by our medical defects, this keeps us diverted from just how much shit we have to eat in order to survive and how extraordinary our good luck need be for us to find joy.
As Marx stated, "The ideas of the ruling class are in every epoch the ruling ideas," and you would have to be an especially stupid member of the ruling class not to see the value of the "ruling idea" that emotional suffering and behavioral disturbances are the result of medical individual defects—and not the result of a society that is a good deal for the ruling class but is alienating and traumatizing for many of the rest of us.
Also discussed in our group, "A Vast Experiment" by Elizabeth Kolbert which ends with:
Climate change isn't a problem that can be solved by summoning the "will." It isn't a problem that can be "fixed" or "conquered," though these words are often used. It isn't going to have a happy ending, or a win-win ending, or, on a human timescale, any ending at all. Whatever we might want to believe about our future, there are limits, and we are up against them.
Kolbert isn't for despair, but I think she aims for a balance between unwarranted optimism and demotivating pessimism. There are countless videos proclaiming the next "breakthrough" technology. But it will take a collective effort to figure out the least damaging path forward.
More than five years after the story broke, Fuckface von Clownstick will be charged with crimes related to the payoff to Stormy Daniels. CBS News has confirmed the news with a lawyer for the former guy.
Dear Leader is not happy.
Within minutes of the news breaking, [he] posted a lengthy statement on his Truth Social account, which appeared to have been written in advance. The ex-president described the indictment as "political persecution and election interference" and suggested it would help him win the 2024 presidential election.
If it helps his popularity, then he should welcome a downpour of indictments!
Update (March 31): CNN reports there are 34 counts in the indictment. The speculation is that it includes more than just the Daniels case.
Heather Digby Parton agrees that this probably does help win the nomination.
It may have been possible for someone to challenge Trump unless he was indicted at which point the whole party has to circle the wagons to defend him. That's how perverse the Republican Party has become.
Update (April 4): The Biggest Loser pleaded not guilty to 34 counts of falsifying business records. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg:
Under New York state law, it is a felony to falsify business records with intent to defraud and intent to conceal another crime. That is exactly what this case is about. Thirty-four false statements made to cover up other crimes. These are felony crimes in New York no matter who you are.
May this only be the beginning.
This case is about fraud, but Amanda Marcotte points out that "how men treat women tells you a great deal about their character".
[O]ne sure thing we all knew about [Fuckface] was that he didn't believe a woman had a right to say "no" to him. Over the next four years, he proved that this entitled attitude was not limited to sex or women. Trump doesn't think anyone has a right to say "no" to him. Not the president of Ukraine. Not various public officials he leaned on to break the law. And, ultimately, not the American people.
When voters told [him] they preferred Joe Biden, he treated voters like he does a woman who declines his sexual attention. He tried to force himself on the country anyway.
Update (April 5): Areeba Shah reports that claiming false legal expenses on a tax return may be the crime that nails Fuckface. Shah quotes John Kaley and Catherine Ross.
Lying to affect an election would be extraordinarily difficult to prove. Every politician and every statement would come under scrutiny. It would become a war among the political parties with few survivors. False documents are much easier. It's either true or false.
The state tax violation is a more straightforward and easier case to make. It is implied in the statement of facts – particularly [regarding] the payments to Cohen reflecting a joint intent that he falsely report the reimbursement as income and providing him with funds to cover that cost. It should not matter that Cohen paid money in. He filed a false tax return.
Update (July 5): I forgot to note here that Dear Leader became the first former president to be indicted in federal court last month. And there's so much more to come.
Special counsel Jack Smith hasn't been resting on his laurels since he dropped 37 federal charges on [Fuckface]. Smith is also probing [The Defendant's] role in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and his reported attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. That effort appears to be homing in on two areas in particular: the effort to have "fake electors" try to cast Electoral College votes for [the loser] and the fundraising effort that raked in boatloads of cash in the weeks after the election.
Update (August 1): It's the Big One:
The final nails are being put in the coffin and [Fuckface] is trapped inside. [He] can bang away all he wants, but he is not getting out of this one. All of his crimes have been "unforced errors" brought on by his inflated ego and monumental hubris. He has been doing this his whole life, and always managed to a Houdini-like escape. But justice has finally caught up with him, and if he doesn't realize this, he will very soon.
Update (August 2): Nick Visser lists seven key points in the indictment:
1. [The Defendant] knew his claims were false but spread them anyway to create an "intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger".
2. The indictment identifies six co-conspirators.
3. People in [The Defendant's] orbit repeatedly told him there was no evidence of voter fraud.
4. [The Defendant] acknowledged claims about election fraud and voting machines pushed by a co-conspirator sounded "crazy".
5. [The Defendant] pressured the Justice Department to support him and threatened to remove those who refused to go along with his plan.
6. [Vice President] Pence's notes helped the special counsel craft his case.
7. [The Defendant] waited and watched on TV as his supporters stormed the Capitol.
I'd like to add that the fake electors scheme was still being pursued even after Congress reconvened following the attack on the Capitol.
Update (August 6): In case we forgot who we're dealing with, this the Defendant's post after his arraignment for the latest indictment:
IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU.
Update (August 14): Thirteen more counts in Georgia for a total of 91. And there are 18 co-defendants.
[T]hey knowingly and willfully joined conspiracy to unlawfully change the outcome of the election in favor of [Fuckface]. That conspiracy contained common plan and purpose to commit two or more acts of racketeering activity in Fulton County, Georgia, elsewhere in the State of Georgia, and in other states.
David Badash quotes the New York Times:
The indictment laid out eight ways the 'enterprise' obstructed the election: by lying to the Georgia state legislature, by lying to state officials, by creating fake pro-Trump electors, by harassing election workers, by soliciting Justice Department officials, by soliciting Vice President Mike Pence, by breaching voting machines and by engaging in a cover up.
Update (August 15): Liz Skalka and Daniel Marans list eight key points in the Georgia indictment:
[The First Defendant] had lots of help in his quest to undo Biden's win, prosecutors allege.
The indictment isn't limited to only what prosecutors contend happened in Georgia.
It cites the election workers who received death threats after [the First Defendant] shared a story falsely accusing them of election fraud.
[The First Defendant's] tweets are in there.
The numbers were all bullshit.
[John] Eastman allegedly admitted that he knew his plan violated the law.
Lying is a big part of the conspiracy theory allegedly led by [the First Defendant] — but not all of it.
Some of the alleged crimes continued well into Biden's presidency.
Also, Jacob Fischler has compiled a timeline for all the criminal activities and legal actions.
Update (August 17): Amanda Marcotte responds to the ususal Republican whining.
If you actually read Fani Willis' indictment, or even a decent summary, it becomes clear that she's charging these people with "organized crime" because, well, they conspired with each other to commit a big crime, which is pretty much the definition.
[I]t's so aggravating to hear Republicans disingenuously accuse Democrats of "criminalizing politics." Oh, hell no. [Dear Leader] did that, when he made it clear that being a loyal Republican means being ready and willing to commit crimes for the boss, or at least to dishonor yourself by pretending you were looking the other way and didn't see anything.
Update (July 15, 2024): The classified documents case (originally filed on June 8 last year) has been dismissed by Judge Aileen Cannon in a ruling that determines special counsel Jack Smith's appointment is unconstitutional. It seems like an extraordinary decision for that judge to make given previous cases. But it will eventually end up at the Supreme Court which has no regard to precedent anyway.
Update (August 27, 2024): Jack Smith has filed an update to the January 6 charges.
The superseding indictment, which was presented to a new grand jury that had not previously heard evidence in this case, reflects the Government’s efforts to respect and implement the Supreme Court’s holdings.
There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.
Matt McGrath and Georgina Rannard report further:
The authors say that they are optimistic that dramatic changes can be achieved rapidly, pointing to the massive falls in the price of energy made from solar and wind.
They also argue that changes driven by consumers in terms of diet, food waste and switching to low carbon transport can achieve significant cuts in emissions from many sectors.
But the report also acknowledges that in addition to getting to net zero emissions as soon as possible, large scale use of carbon dioxide removal technology will be needed.
Update (March 21): Nick Visser offers five key points in the report:
1. Climate change has already wreaked havoc on the planet.
2. Every bit of warming matters.
3. The impacts of climate change are and will continue to be severe.
4. The warmer the world, the more animal species at serious risk.
5. There is a window to act, but it’s small and getting smaller.
Update (March 22): Can satire save us?
In 2016, I declared: I am your voice. Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed: I am your retribution.
Update (July 5): Amanda Marcotte explains why no other candidate can defeat Dear Leader in the primary.
What MAGA voters love about [him] is not that he's "tough," which would be laughable since he's actually a big old crybaby.
They view him as a punishment to inflict on the rest of the country. MAGA may stand for "make America great again," but in reality, it's a movement focused solely on inflicting pain.
[H]is indictments and other reminders of his criminality only increase GOP support. ... MAGA voters are unmoved when reminded [Fuckface] will struggle in a general election. It's really not about winning elections for them, either. It's about making the process of having an election as miserable as possible.
[Chris] Christie's words about how [The Defendant] "doesn't give a damn about the American people" don't matter to the MAGA base. They know he's speaking the truth about [von Clownstick's] views. It just happens that GOP voters also do not give a damn about the American people.
Update (July 6): Marcotte also notes that modern Republicans are not just out to destroy democracy--they were more than happy to promote disinformation through a fake social media account.
For [MAGA] conservatives, it's not even really so much about lying as it is waging war on the concept of truth itself. The goal isn't to fool people, so much as it is to deprive truth of all social value. They want a world where what they want to believe is "true" and what is actually true is not relevant.
