Amazon Tipping Point

A study published in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change finds that the Amazon rainforest may have already tipped from a carbon sink to a net source of greenhouse gasses.

Despite uncertainty in their responses to change, we conclude that current warming from non-CO2 agents (especially CH4 and N2O) in the Amazon Basin largely offsets—and most likely exceeds—the climate service provided by atmospheric CO2 uptake.

Update (May 5):  Matthew Rozsa reports on a study published in Nature Climate Change that finds the Brazilian Amazon became a net carbon emitter in the past decade largely due to forest degradation.

[T]he rain forest absorbed 13.9 metric tons of carbon dioxide between 2010 and 2019 — but released 16.6 billion metric tons during that same period. (To put that in context, human fossil fuel combustion is believed to produce around 35 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide [per year].)

Forest degradation happens when a forest's biological diversity and wealth is permanently diminished. [That has] contributed 73% of the "gross biomass loss" of the Amazon, compared to deforestation, which contributed 27% of that loss.

Minimum Wage Defeat

Do these eight Senators actually believe their vote against a $15 minimum wage will win them votes in their next election?  Or are they just happy to condemn Democrats to minority status for the foreseeable future?

Democratic opponents to the minimum wage boost included two close Biden allies from his home state, Chris Coons and Tom Carper of Delaware, along with moderates Jon Tester of Montana, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire. Sen. Angus King, a Maine independent who caucuses with Democrats, also opposed it.

All of them voted alongside Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has been called the unofficial majority leader based on his outsize influence in an evenly-split Senate.

Update (March 8):  While Amanda Marcotte acknowledges some disappointment with the American Rescue Plan such as the defeat of the minimum wage increase, she notes the $1.9 trillion package is still a major progressive victory which not one Republican voted for. Marcotte is hopeful that that intransigence opens the door for further vital legislation.

[B]oth [Senators] Manchin and Sinema are already softening their pro-fiilbuster stances, indicating that they are open to "reform" that allows them to say they "saved" the filibuster while removing most, if not all, Republican uses of it. What seemed impossible a week ago — that actual bills to save democracy, protect the environment, etc. would get a floor debate in the Senate — now is coming into view. And that's huge!

Update (July 15, 2022):  The Economic Policy Institute finds that the federal minimum wage is at the lowest value since February 1956 when is was $0.75 per hour ($7.19 in June 2022 dollars). The current period without an increase is the longest since the policy was established.

Emissions Reductions Falling Short

An initial synthesis report from the United Nations about the voluntary nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from the Paris climate agreement finds that, so far, the pledges would reduce emissions by only one percent.

Update (March 5):  Robert Hunziker elaborates on the report.

According to data provided by the 74 nations that have reported to the much-heralded Paris climate accord, collectively, their plans are to reduce emissions by 2030 by 0.5% of 2010 levels. But, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) clearly stated that global emissions must fall by 45%, not a measly 0.5%. Otherwise, there’s no chance of staying below 1.5°C [increase].

Ocean Current Disruption

A study published in Nature Geoscience finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is at its weakest since 400 CE. Co-author Stefan Rahmstorf:

We risk triggering [a tipping point] in this century, and the circulation would spin down within the next century. It is extremely unlikely that we have already triggered it, but if we do not stop global warming, it is increasingly likely that we will trigger it.

The consequences of this are so massive that even a 10% chance of triggering a breakdown would be an unacceptable risk.

Update (August 6):  A study published in Nature Climate Change suggests there has been a loss of stability in the AMOC. Author Niklas Boers:

We already know from some computer simulations and from data from Earth's past, so-called paleoclimate proxy records, that the AMOC can exhibit—in addition to the currently attained strong mode—an alternative, substantially weaker mode of operation. This bi-stability implies that abrupt transitions between the two circulation modes are in principle possible.

The findings support the assessment that the AMOC decline is not just a fluctuation or a linear response to increasing temperatures, but likely means the approaching of a critical threshold beyond which the circulation system could collapse.

Update (October 3):  A study published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology finds that Pacific Ocean currents are also shifting due to climate change.

[R]esearchers conclusively found, using observational data and modeling studies, that [the Kuroshio Current and Extension] is warming, adjusting its latitudinal position northward, and possibly increasing the amount of warm water that it moves north in the process.

Update (July 25, 2023):  A study published in Nature Communications concludes that the AMOC could collapse sometime between 2025 and 2095 (95% confidence interval).

Hali Kilbourne:

It is very plausible that we've fallen off a cliff already and don't know it.

End the Filibuster

The already undemocratic Senate is being held hostage by Minority Leader McConnell. He wants to force Democrats to keep the 60 vote threshold to get anything done. Democrats will only have themselves to blame if they don't stand up against the filibuster. Amanda Marcotte notes the long-term strategy used to damage Democratic control of government.

Ever since Ronald Reagan's administration, Republicans have campaigned on the idea that government is inherently dysfunctional. The idea is to demoralize voters and drive down turnout so that the only people who show up to vote are right-wing culture warriors. And the best possible way to do that is to make absolutely sure that government never works, by tanking any efforts by Democrats to pass bills that actually help people.

[T]hey believe — rightfully — that seeing the government work effectively for the common good would do long-term political damage to the Republican Party. They'd rather just keep screwing over their own constituents, and pretending the problem is government itself, and not Republican obstructionism.

Update (January 26):  McConnell has backed off his effort to block the organizing rules for the Senate. John Stoehr reports Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may have found a way to gain the upper hand. 

Last night, he told [Rachel] Maddow the Democrats would no longer trust the Republicans to act in good faith! (He said his party will not repeat the mistakes they made during the Obama years.)

This could be a good sign. I hope Schumer told McConnell something to the effect of "you get in our way and we'll fuck you up".

Update (January 29):  Republicans are only too happy to forget about the Big Lie over the election and the insurrection at the Capitol. Heather Digby Parton says Democrats shouldn't waste time trying to get cooperation from the opposition.

Of course, the minute [Biden] set about enacting the agenda he ran on the Republicans called for the smelling salts, shrieking that he isn't unifying the country, presumably because he isn't enacting their agenda instead.

John Stoehr sums up their purpose well.

The point of being a Republican is not accomplishing things for the greater good of the country. The point is creating conditions in which accomplishing things for the greater good is impossible.

Amanda Marcotte points out that despite some intra-party squabbling, Republicans know what it takes to hold onto power.

[U]ltimately, that power struggle is more about aesthetics and tactics than goals. The McConnell wing prefers to undermine democracy through procedural obstructionism that slips the notice of the average voter. The [von Clownstick] wing wants violent insurrection and in your face gun-waving. Either way, the objective is the same: Installing minority rule, gutting democracy, and shutting the majority of Americans out of power.

And there's increasing danger as one wing bends ever more toward the will of the other.

Instead of shunning [Orangeman] and his fellow travelers for stoking an insurrection, congressional Republican leadership is supporting and encouraging the very people who are most responsible for the attempted overthrow of the government.

Update (March 5):  The filibuster itself is already profoundly anti-democratic and Heather Digby Parton makes it clear that U.S. democracy will be effectively destroyed if voting rights aren't secured through the For the People Act (H.R.1).

The Democrats have a small window of opportunity to prevent this undemocratic movement from gaining steam and securing minority rule for the foreseeable future. [Dear Leader] himself is not out of the picture and his party is single-mindedly focused on attaining power by any means necessary. Democrats must act decisively now and make sure that all 50 Senators understand the stakes and do what is necessary to pass H.R.1.

Update (March 14):  Matthew Rozsa recounts the erroneous beginning and mostly racist history of the filibuster.

If the filibuster were actually some venerable bulwark of democracy, enshrined in the Constitution and protecting good government, maybe a case for it could be made. None of that's true: It was born of absent-mindedness and has mostly been used as a tool of oppression. To preserve democracy — and basic human decency — the filibuster has got to go.

Update (March 17):  Jake Johnson suggests Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is scared Democrats really will move against the filibuster. Heather Digby Parton points out McConnell made a big mistake by showing no respect for democratic norms himself.

By being so smug and so flamboyant in wielding his power he finally managed to get the Democrats to understand that they have nothing to lose by going around him to enact their agenda and letting the people decide if they like the results. If it works out they will be re-elected. If not, they did their best. That's democracy, after all, the most important norm of all.

Update (March 19):  Senator Raphael Warnock makes the connection between voting rights and the filibuster.

[T]his issue — access to voting and preempting politicians' efforts to restrict voting — is so fundamental to our democracy that it is too important to be held hostage by a Senate rule, especially one historically used to restrict the expansion of basic rights.

It is a contradiction to say we must protect minority rights in the Senate while refusing to protect minority rights in the society.

Update (July 22):  So only six months in and the Biden presidency has effectively come to an end.

President Joe Biden reiterated his opposition to abolishing the Senate's filibuster rule on Wednesday, claiming that rather than making it easier to pass legislation, it will actually make it harder.

"There's no reason to protect it other than you’re going to throw the entire Congress into chaos and nothing will get done," Biden said during a CNN town hall. "Nothing at all will get done, and there’s a lot at stake."

Biden hopes to "bring along Republicans who I know know better" which requires 10 more votes for voting rights. Sherrilyn Ifill, president of the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund, isn't buying it.

What are their names? Name the Republicans who know better. This is not a strategy. The time for magical thinking is over.

Update (September 25):  There is still a chance for some progress, but I'm not too confident.

Democrats are currently discussing two ways to change the Senate’s filibuster rules in order to pass voting rights legislation. The options under consideration include a special carve-out from filibuster rules for voting rights legislation or the implementation of a new kind of talking filibuster.

Update (October 7):  President Biden hints that the filibuster could be modified if Republicans remain too obstructive. 

Update (October 21):  More hints from Biden after Republicans block voting rights legislation for the third time.

President Joe Biden

There needn't be any illusions about what might be accomplished, but it's nice to want to use the President's name again.

At 78 years old, Biden is the oldest U.S. president to take the oath of office. He is the 15th vice president to become the country’s chief executive.

Harris’ vice presidency is historic in several regards: She’s the first female, Black and South Asian person to hold the position.

Amanda Marcotte notes that a whole bunch of executive orders are lined up.

[T]here's still good reason to be concerned that [Biden's] instincts — he loves to talk about bipartisanship, for instance — are too moderate and compromising, and will lead to Senate Republicans derailing his efforts with phony "talks" where they pretend they're willing to negotiate in order to run out the clock. But there are also promising signs that Biden understands that seriousness of the moment and, as David Roberts at Vox advised in December, is willing to focus on "doing as much good on as many fronts as fast as possible" instead of getting bogged down with the GOP's derailing tactics.

Update (April 29):  As President Biden finished his first 100 days in office, he laid out his agenda before a joint session of Congress. Amanda Marcotte notes not everyone was enthusiastic.

Republicans are grumpy, extremely grumpy. Republican Senators watching the speech last night collectively looked like they smelled a fart, and not just because they were wearing masks. They're mad, not just because they know he's right. They're mad because they know he's popular and what he's saying is popular. They'll block as much of his agenda as they can and hope that voter suppression and gerrymandering do the rest. But on the merits of the argument itself? They're toast.

It's not because Biden is some super-politician. It's because Republicans spent decades making politics into a reality TV show. Now that we're facing a real crisis, the public is turning its eyes towards the comfort of a real politician who wants to do real policy. And Republicans have nothing to say in response.

Update (April 30):  Heather Digby Parton reminds us that a handful of Democratic Senators will decide if President Biden is successful or not.

The Republicans cannot credibly oppose Biden's agenda. Their arguments about debt and tax cuts have been refuted, their ideas about radical individualism have been shredded by our experience with the pandemic, their claims to moral authority in the wake of [Fuckface] are simply laughable. All they have is power and they will wield it mercilessly. But they have no way to explain it to the broader American public that makes any sense.

The only question, then, is whether or not that makes any sense to the centrist Democrats like West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin or the two senators from Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly. Sadly, there is a fair chance that other than the hardcore [Dear Leader believers] who will believe anything they're told, these Democratic senators will be the only people in America to whom it does. They must be persuaded that now is the time, while the Republicans are ideologically spent and the economy is set to blast off, to do something real and meaningful for the American people.

Assuming these Senators don't want to see an authoritarian return to power, then they need to realize Republicans have zero interest in "bi-partisanship" or helping anyone. 

Impeachment Part Two

Ten Republicans were part of a 232 to 197 vote to charge Fuckface von Clownstick with "incitement of insurrection".  Out of four presidential impeachments in U.S. history, this guy is two of them.

Update (February 9):  The trial started today and soon we will know exactly which Republican Senators are loyal to democracy and who is loyal to one man. But Amanda Marcotte fears the majority will back down from calling witnesses.

Democrats have a real chance to outline for the country not just [Dear Leader's] guilt, but the stakes if we continue down this path of having one out of two political parties increasingly reject democracy.

Democrats need to stop being such cowards. The very fate of our nation rests on their ability to show courage in the face of creeping fascism, and to marshal every tool they have towards beating it back. Democrats may fail — fighting fascism is often an uphill battle — but it shouldn't be for lack of trying. Calling witnesses is a no-brainer, a way to help draw media attention and make the case to the public about why violent authoritarianism and the party that supports it, the GOP, should be wholly rejected. If Democrats fail to make that case out of a fear of offending Republicans, they share in the complicity of letting [Fuckface] pull our nation further into darkness.

Update (February 12):  Heather Digby Parton knows what's coming.

The Impeachment managers delivered an irrefutable argument that proved the former president incited an insurrection which came horrifyingly close to causing death or injury to members of Congress, the Senate and the Vice President — and yet he is almost certain to be acquitted. A glorious triumph indeed.

[I]t's profoundly depressing. After all, if what happened on Jan. 6th does not result in any consequences for the man who incited it, then it's hard to imagine what would.

Most Republican Senators just don't give a fuck about democracy or the constituition. Parton quotes Dahlia Lithwick:

Rep. Eric Swalwell narrating in the second person what happened to United States senators was astounding. This happened. And it happened to you. A recitation of facts that were excruciating one month ago is worse today, as new details come out of colleagues, like Romney and Pence, who were closer to harm than they even realized at the time. None of this will change their minds, a fact that starts a spiral of hopeless despair as the back of one's mind asks: What else will we have to live through before the Republican Party finds its way back to fact-based decision-making?

And in a late evening story, CNN reports on the phone call Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy made to Dear Leader as rioters were breaking into his office at the Capitol. The response?

Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are.

This is the same asshole who attacked his own vice president by tweet after learning Pence was in danger. And yet, it still won't matter. Even McCarthy didn't vote for impeachment. 

Update (February 13):  Apparently there was a vote to have Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler testify about the McCarthy call, but then a "deal" was made to just take a written statement. Within hours, Dear Leader was acquitted by a vote of 43 to 57. So a small victory in falling "only" ten votes short.

Update (February 14):  Matthew Rozsa argues last year's acquittal set the stage for 43 cowards to signal yesterday that no Republican president will ever be held accountable for any abuse of power.

Motivated by a mixture of partisanship, career opportunism and fear of [his] increasingly fascistic supporters, they have reinforced the idea in MAGA world that if their Dear Leader doesn't win an election, that election simply does not count.