Climate Deaths

A study published in Energies estimates the toll from future warming.

Several studies are consistent with the "1000-ton rule," according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter.

Hottest Month (Yes, So Far)

The Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that last month is the warmest on record by a wide margin.

July’s global average temperature of 16.95 degrees Celsius (62.51 degrees Fahrenheit) was a third of a degree Celsius (six tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) higher than the previous record set in 2019.

The month was 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times [and] 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.3 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than the average July from 1991 to 2020.

Days in July have been hotter than previously recorded from July 2 on.

Update (September 6):  The World Meteorological Organization announced that this summer was the warmest for the Northern Hemisphere. 

Last month was not only the hottest August scientists ever recorded by far with modern equipment, it was also the second hottest month measured, behind only July 2023.

Update (October 9):  And now the record for the largest monthly anomaly.

Last month's average temperature was 0.93 degrees Celsius (1.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1991-2020 average for September. That's the warmest margin above average for a month in 83 years of records kept by the European Space Agency's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Copernicus calculated that the average temperature for September was 16.38 degrees Celsius (61.48 degrees Fahrenheit), which broke the old record set in September 2020 by a whopping half-degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit).

Update (November 10):  Climate Central reports that the twelve months from November 2022 to October 2023 were the warmest in recorded history. 

[A]verage global temperatures during that period were roughly 1.32º Celsius (2.4º Fahrenheit) above preindustrial averages. As a result, roughly nine out of ten humans alive experienced at least 10 days over the past 12 months during which high temperatures would have been unlikely if not for climate change.

 

Hottest Day ... So Far

The global mean temperature measured 62.62 degrees Fahrenheit on July 3 exceeding the previous record of 62.46 degrees set in August 2016. I would guess this record will be broken in considerably less than seven years.

One reason is that the carbon dioxide concentration in Mauna Loa was 424 parts per million in May. 

That’s more than 50% higher than before the industrial era began roughly 250 years ago and 3 parts per million higher than what federal scientists counted in May 2022. It represents the fourth-largest annual increase since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration started its tally 65 years ago.

This trend is pushing the Arctic toward ice-free summers as soon as the 2030s. 

The loss of summer sea ice would trigger a feedback loop known as "Arctic amplification" with the dark ocean absorbing more solar heat and causing additional planetary warming.

And the emergence of the El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean only intensifies extreme weather events.

The effects of El Niño tend to peak during December, but the impact typically takes time to spread across the globe. This lagged effect is why forecasters believe 2024 could be the first year that humanity surpasses [warming of] 1.5 degrees Celsius. Global average temperatures in 2022 were 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer when compared to the late 19th century.

Update (July 5):  Well, that was fast.

On Tuesday, the global average temperature peaked at a new all-time high of 17.18 degrees Celsius [62.92 degrees Fahrenheit] as regions worldwide—from Asia to Africa to the U.S. South—reeled from dangerous heatwaves.

Update (July 6):  Apparently, Wednesday tied Tuesday's record. Brian McNoldy:

It's so far out of line of what's been observed that it's hard to wrap your head around. It doesn't seem real.

Update (July 7):  The new (unofficial) record, set Thursday, is 63.01 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Update (July 15):  No new global records yet, but the southwest U.S. is blazing.

Nearly a third of Americans were under extreme heat advisories, watches and warnings. The blistering heat wave was forecast to get worse this weekend for Nevada, Arizona and California, where desert temperatures were predicted to soar in parts past 120 degrees Fahrenheit (48.8 degrees Celsius) during the day, and remain in the 90s F (above 32.2 C) overnight.

Phoenix marked the city’s 15th consecutive day of 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) or higher temperatures on Friday, hitting 116 degrees Fahrenheit (46.6 degrees Celsius) by late afternoon, and putting it on track to beat the longest measured stretch of such heat. The record is 18 days, recorded in 1974.

Update (July 26):  World Weather Attribution claims that this month's record heat would be "virtually impossible" in the absence of anthropogenic climate change. 

Update (September 10):  Phoenix continues to set new heat records for 110 degree Fahrenheit days.

[Saturday] was the 54th day this year that the official reading at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport made the mark, eclipsing the previous record of 53 days set in 2020.

In July, Phoenix also set a record with a 31-day streak of highs at or above 110 F (43.3 C). The previous record of 18 straight days was set in 1974.

Update (July 24, 2024):  Sunday and Monday are being described as record-breaking days for global mean temperature. The values are given as 17.09 degrees Celsius (62.76 degrees Fahrenheit) and 17.15 degrees Celsius (62.87 degrees Fahrenheit). Apparently, last year's record was revised to 17.08 degrees Celsius for July 6.

And it looks like Tuesday tied Monday.

Update (July 25, 2024):  I guess Monday was revised to 17.16 degrees Celsius (62.89 degrees Fahrenheit) and so Tuesday is the second warmest day on record.

Update (September 4, 2024):  Phoenix is on the verge of breaking last year's record and has also set another record with 100 consecutive days of 100 degree Fahrenheit temperatures.

Too Late?

Paul Rosenberg has published a series of three articles focused on author Peter Turchin and his book, End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. Turchin argues the United States is entering a period of crisis that is part of a cycle typical for many countries through history. 

Rosenberg recalls a quote from Amanda Littman and offers serveral resources that give him reason for hope.

I think that democracy is at a breaking point. If we can get through the next couple of years, the next three years, then the next five years after that are going to be unbelievably good.

Of course, it hardly seems likely the U.S. can truly prove to be "exceptional" and avoid the fate so many other societies have encountered. And yet, we need to try.

Safe and Just

A paper published in Nature finds that the Earth system is in dire condition.

We propose [Earth system boundaries] for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice). ... Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs ... are already exceeded.

Lead author Johan Rockström:

This means that unless a timely transformation occurs, it is most likely that irreversible tipping points and widespread impacts on human well-being will be unavoidable. Avoiding that scenario is crucial if we want to secure a safe and just future for current and future generations.

Stan Cox notes that technology simply can't ensure that "safe and just" future.

In the quest for sufficient mineral resources to make green dreams come true, affluent societies will become more dependent on an even more technologically complex, even more physically vulnerable energy supply as they exploit the resources of the global South. Those promoting this quest are all too aware that we are bursting through our planet’s ecological and resource limits.

The alternative to a voracious, high-energy, self-sabotaging economy would be one that provides for just enough material production to equitably ensure a decent, satisfying life for all.

In coming decades, it will be essential that communities across the nation and world find a way to sustain a decent life amid ecological breakdown, in a future they themselves didn’t create.

Update (September 14):  An article published in Science Advances finds that six of nine planetary boundaries have been exceeded and two others are heading the wrong way.

Johan Rockström:

We are in very bad shape. We show in this analysis that the planet is losing resilience and the patient is sick.

The Source of Mental Illness

Bruce Levine questions the "medical model" of mental illness--does that approach really help people with their difficulties or does it work to the benefit of those who control society?

While researchers have not linked any psychiatric condition to neurobiological variables, there are many links between these conditions and socioeconomic variables. Results from a 2013 national survey, issued by the U.S. government’s Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), provide extensive evidence that unemployment, poverty, and involvement in the criminal justice system are highly associated with depression and suicidality.

Moreover, in the late 1990s, the Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) study revealed a powerful relationship between childhood trauma (including physical and emotional abuse) with later adult emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances. An alienating and dehumanizing society such as ours that creates extensive anxiety, powerlessness, resentment, and rage is a society that creates adults who, in their interactions with children, have little frustration tolerance; and this lack of frustration tolerance makes abuse and trauma of children more likely—resulting in the adverse childhood experiences that create later adult emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances.

The ruling class could not care less whether psychiatric treatment consists of bloodletting, lobotomy, electroshock, SSRI antidepressants, or psychedelic microdosing. As long as the "ruling idea" of society is that our emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances are caused by our medical defects, this keeps us diverted from just how much shit we have to eat in order to survive and how extraordinary our good luck need be for us to find joy.

As Marx stated, "The ideas of the ruling class are in every epoch the ruling ideas," and you would have to be an especially stupid member of the ruling class not to see the value of the "ruling idea" that emotional suffering and behavioral disturbances are the result of medical individual defects—and not the result of a society that is a good deal for the ruling class but is alienating and traumatizing for many of the rest of us.

Which Narrative?

Also discussed in our group, "A Vast Experiment" by Elizabeth Kolbert which ends with:

Climate change isn't a problem that can be solved by summoning the "will." It isn't a problem that can be "fixed" or "conquered," though these words are often used. It isn't going to have a happy ending, or a win-win ending, or, on a human timescale, any ending at all. Whatever we might want to believe about our future, there are limits, and we are up against them.

Kolbert isn't for despair, but I think she aims for a balance between unwarranted optimism and demotivating pessimism. There are countless videos proclaiming the next "breakthrough" technology. But it will take a collective effort to figure out the least damaging path forward.