Climate Science Special Report

The New York Times published a draft of the climate report ahead of official release due to concern that the Administration would suppress it.

This report concludes that “it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.”

Another study estimates there is only a 5 percent chance that warming will be limited to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. Also, visualizing warming by country.

Update (August 11):  While suppression concerns may have been genuine, The New York Times did release this statement.

An article on Tuesday about a sweeping federal climate change report referred incorrectly to the availability of the report. While it was not widely publicized, the report was uploaded by the nonprofit Internet Archive in January; it was not first made public by The New York Times.

Maybe that previous availability means the report wasn't exactly "news" as usually defined, but Dave Lindorff makes the case for paying attention anyway.

[U]nless some people in government read it and understand its clear warning, and unless American newsrooms move beyond their breathless focus on alleged Russian meddling in the last election and on the latest Bachelorette scandal, the question will not be whether America can be “great again,” but whether there will be any America at all to speak of, come 2100.

Update (November 4):  The National Climate Assessment is now officially released.

[T]he study authors outline the scientific uncertainty around things like feedback loops and tipping points. Essentially, there is so much human-influenced ecosystem change of which we aren’t yet aware — and so much that is unprecedented — that we can expect “abrupt and/or irreversible” surprises. The problem being, of course, that we don’t know what those surprises are.

Also, Climate Action Tracker says that current policies have only a 0.5 percent chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

Update (March 1, 2018):  Mary Mazzoni lists the highlights of the report.

1. Humans are the cause of global warming.
2. The Earth is warming rapidly.
3. Sea levels are rising faster now than in the past.
4. Ocean ecosystems are increasingly at risk.
5. Extreme weather events are more frequent and intense.
6. The only way out is to reduce emissions.