Low Cost Regulations

As the Environmental Protection Agency prepares to announce new rules to reduce carbon emissions, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has released a report concluding that the regulations would only cost $50 billion per year--less than one percent of the $17 trillion economy.  Litigation is expected to contest these cost-effective measures.

Update (June 2):  The EPA announced the new rules for existing power plants.  Carbon dioxide emissions need to be cut to 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.  States will have several options for achieving the reductions.  It's rare for a Presidential administration to place the long-term well being of humanity above short-term political interests.

Update (June 7):  Paul Krugman disputes Republican criticism of the EPA rules.

Update (June 9):  Robert Samuelson claims that the EPA regulations will only have a moderate impact--both economically and ecologically.

Update (June 16):  Dahr Jamail explains why the new regulations are too little, too late.

Update (July 3):  And the lawsuits begin.

Update (July 29):  A report from the White House Council of Economic Advisers determines that the cost of delaying action on climate change will continue to grow.

Tie for Warmest April

According to NOAA, last month tied with 2010 for the warmest April.

Update (May 21):  Bill McKibben calls for a massive demonstration in New York City for the climate summit in September.  And Pope Francis likens environmental destruction to sin.

Update (June 23):  And now the warmest May ever recorded.

Update (July 21):  And now the warmest June ever recorded.

Update (September 15):  And now the warmest August ever recorded.

Update (October 13):  And now the warmest September ever recorded.  Like a broken record.

Update (November 15):  And now the warmest October ever recorded.

Update (November 29):  With this year on track to set a temperature record, Andrea Thompson points out that record cold years are a thing of the past.

The Cost of Transition

Delaying the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy adds trillions of dollars to the cost. The International Energy Agency estimates in Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 that keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius will cost $44 trillion by 2050.  But that is offset by $171 trillion in fuel savings.

Update (May 17):  Paul Rosenberg reflects on the IEA report and other climate news.  Also, a report produced by Greenpeace and the Global Wind Energy Council called energy [r]evolution A Sustainable USA Energy Outlook details how the U.S. could be nearly 100 percent renewable energy by 2050.

Update (January 31, 2015):  Joe Romm points out the distinction between "cheap" and "easy" and further notes that the cost of doing nothing about climate change is far more than the cost to stabilize temperatures now.

Health Insurance Saves Lives

A study published in Annals of Internal Medicine by Benjamin Sommers, Sharon Long, and Katherine Baicker concludes that the 2006 Massachusetts health insurance reform reduced overall mortality by 2.9 percent over four years, and mortality amenable to health care by 4.5 percent.  The implication is that the Affordable Care Act will achieve similar results.  Fewer deaths isn't the only measure of success, but it is reasonable to suggest overall healthcare would improve with expanded coverage.

It remains inexplicable to me why states have opted out of Medicaid expansion and why the Supreme Court allowed that to happen.

Human Activities Are Now Changing the Climate

The Third National Climate Assessment has been released.  Few informed people will find anything surprising in the report.  Among the key messages regarding health:

Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including impacts from increased extreme weather events, wildfire, decreased air quality, threats to mental health, and illnesses transmitted by food, water, and disease-carriers such as mosquitoes and ticks. Some of these health impacts are already underway in the United States.

There is also a focus on regional impacts such as for the Northwest:

Changes in the timing of streamflow reduce water supplies for competing demands. Sea level rise, erosion, inundation, risks to infrastructure, and increasing ocean acidity post major threats. Increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are causing widespread tree die-off.

Update (May 7):  Brian Merchant makes the point that "[c]limate change is quite capable of overtaking us" with cascading effects felt throughout society.

The greater threat, as outlined in the report, is that more frequent and fiercer natural disasters will begin to break down the technologies and implements of modern society, posing dangers not just to a few unfortunate disaster victims, but everyone who has become accustomed to clean water and a steady flow of power.

Update (May 8):  The Carbon Tracker Initiative evaluates financial risk for oil production investments. One trillion dollars is at risk if warming is to be held below 2 degrees Celsius.  A breakeven price of $95 per barrel for nonconventional sources suggests that we're past peak for all the "easy" oil.

Update (May 9):  Jonathan Chait analyzes climate skeptics George Will and Charles Krauthammer.  By disputing the value of consensus

Krauthammer ... has taken a radically skeptical position not merely on climate science, but on all science. His argument implies that no scientific argument merits respect. Given the provisional and socially constructed peer pressure driving the consensus theory of aerodynamics, it is amazing that he is willing to travel in an airplane.

Update (May 13):  Dahr Jamail reiterates the growing impacts of climate change.

Update (August 20):  Elizabeth Douglass reports on the Carbon Tracker Initiative's evaluation of high-risk oil megaprojects.  And Dahr Jamail seems to provide regular climate updates.

Update (September 24):  A study has determined that most of the warming off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is due to natural climate patterns.

East Antarctica (and West)

A study published in Nature Climate Change concludes that additional warming of just 1 to 2.5 degrees Celsius above the current global mean temperature would melt an "ice plug" in Wilkes Basin.  This would start an irreversible ice flow causing a sea level rise of 3 to 4 meters over several thousand years.

Update (May 12):  Studies published in Science and Geophysical Research Letters point to rapid melting in West Antarctica.  The Thwaites glacier is in early stages of collapse with eventual total collapse almost certain.  Warmer water melts the underside of the glaciers causing a retreat of the grounding-line.  The New York Times reports that a 3 meter sea level rise seems inevitable.

Update (May 13):  Joe Romm says news reports are underplaying the seriousness of these new reports. He quotes Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research:

What climate scientists have feared for decades is now beginning to come true: We are pushing the climate system across dangerous tipping points. Beyond such points things like ice sheet collapse become self-sustaining and unstoppable, committing our children and children's children to massive problems. The new studies strongly suggest the first of these tipping points has already been crossed. More tipping points lie ahead of us. I think we should try hard to avoid crossing them.

Update (May 19):  More about Antarctic ice losses.  And the potential loss in Greenland is also worse than previously believed.

Update (May 21):  More about Greenland and Antarctica, and a reminder of a 2012 paleoclimate report, quoting lead author Kenneth Miller of Rutgers University:

The natural state of the Earth with present carbon dioxide levels is one with sea levels about 70 feet higher than now.

Update (July 7):  A study from the University of New South Wales shows that warmer water is displacing cooler water near the Antarctic coast and will likely accelerate ice sheet melting.

Update (August 21):  A study from the Alfred Wegener Institute used satellite measurements to determine that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting at a combined rate of 500 cubic kilometers per year. That is twice as fast as just five years ago.

Update (August 23):  A study lead by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says warming in Antarctica could become the largest contributor to sea level rise adding up to 37 centimeters by 2100.

Update (October 19):  Joe Romm reports on studies indicating that "worse case scenarios" for sea level rise have been underestimated.

Update (December 16):  New studies indicate that the melting and/or collapse of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets could happen faster than previously estimated.

Update (July 17, 2015):  A study published in Geophysical Research Letters says that Greenland's fjords are deeper than previously known which could lead to faster melting of the outlet glaciers.

Update (May 19, 2019):  A study published in Geophysical Research Letters analyzes 25 years of data from Antarctica.

While the majority of the ice sheet has remained stable, 24% of West Antarctica is now in a state of dynamical imbalance. Thinning of the Pine Island and Thwaites glacier basins reaches 122 m [400 ft] in places, and their rates of ice loss are now five times greater than at the start of our survey.