Relentless

Studies published in Nature find that Antarctica's surface melt features are more extensive than previously thought. Meanwhile, Arctic summers could be ice-free by the 2030s with an associated cost between $7 and 90 trillion by 2100. And, as expected, the Mauna Loa Observatory recorded 410 ppm of carbon dioxide for the first time on April 18.

Low Sea Ice Volume

This time of year is the peak extent of Arctic sea ice, but so far this year each month has seen a record low volume.

Update (July 9):  Brian Kahn notes that sea ice volume continues to be at a record low. Even more dramatic--freezing degree days are well below 2012 which saw the record low sea ice extent.

Scientists project that even if the world manages to cut carbon pollution enough to keep global warming below 3.6°F (2°C), the Arctic could still face ice-free summers in the coming decades.

Also, a reminder from Richard Rood that further warming is locked in even if all carbon dioxide emissions stopped now--perhaps 0.6 degree Celsius on top of the one degree of warming already experienced. His own expectation is around 4 degrees of warming.

If we stop our emissions today, we won’t go back to the past. The Earth will warm. And since the response to warming is more warming through feedbacks associated with melting ice and increased atmospheric water vapor, our job becomes one of limiting the warming. If greenhouse gas emissions are eliminated quickly enough, within a small number of decades, it will keep the warming manageable and the Paris Agreement goals could be met. It will slow the change – and allow us to adapt. Rather than trying to recover the past, we need to be thinking about best possible futures.

Stealing a Court Seat

Mitch McConnell blocked Obama's pick and changed the rules to push through the Republican nominee to the Supreme Court.

Rather than broaden its message or revamp its failed policies, the GOP has declared war on democracy.

McConnell sees shredding of tradition as no vice in the pursuit of preserving privilege.

And with enough money in the next election cycle, the Republicans will face no consequences.

Update (November 26):  Andrew Perez and Margaret Sessa-Hawkins uncover just how much influence one wealthy individual can have in U.S. politics.

The Wellspring Committee, a Virginia-based nonprofit, donated more than $23 million last year to the Judicial Crisis Network, which spent $7 million on advertisements pushing Republican senators to block President Barack Obama’s court pick, Merrick Garland. After the election, the network spent another $10 million to boost [Fuckface von Clownstick's] pick, Justice Neil Gorsuch.

Wellspring received more than $32 million in donations last year, with $28.5 million coming from a single, anonymous donor.

Update (June 26, 2018):  Crime pays with a couple of 5 to 4 decisions.

Update (June 27, 2018):  Another 5 to 4 decision and now Justice Kennedy is retiring. And so we'll live with the consequences of a broken democracy for decades to come.

Update (September 17, 2018):  The Republicans got tripped up in their rush to confirm, as Senator Brian Schatz puts it, "a Republican operative who is posing as a judge". Soon we'll know whether a documented perjurer accused of attempted rape is considered qualified for the Supreme Court.

Update (September 18, 2018):  Confirmation might not be so easy now that the accuser is calling for an FBI investigation before testifying to the Judiciary Committee.

Update (September 19, 2018):  Senator Orrin Hatch exemplifies the Republican attitude that the accusations are not legitimate.

He's a straight-shooting, honest guy. I think when people listen to him, they’ll know he’s alright.

I think this woman, whoever she is, is mixed up. 

Update (September 22, 2018):  Mike Littwin thinks only one side is panicking over the coming confrontation.

Update (September 23, 2018):  Whether the current nomination succeeds or not, Paul Rosenberg argues Republicans should be made to pay a price.

I'm not arguing that the Supreme Court should slavishly reflect every aspect of public opinion. But neither should it be a rear guard, constantly fighting against the tide. It's only like that because conservatives have made the Supreme Court central to their politics for 50 years, using any means at all to achieve their ends, and even refusing to allow an elected president fill an open seat simply because he was a Democrat. To take the Court back, the rest of us need to be willing to do just the same: Make it a top priority, and recapture it by any means necessary.

“Playing nice” by accepting the rules that conservatives lay down — and set aside whenever it pleases them—is no longer an option. Consider how Republicans are treating Christine Blasey Ford even worse than they treated Anita Hill 27 years ago. The lesson should be clear. As Malvina Reynolds sang long ago, “It isn’t nice to block the doorway/ It isn’t nice to go to jail/ There are nicer ways to do it/ But the nice ways always fail.”

Republicans stole the Merrick Garland seat. There's a clear remedy: As soon as they have the power to do so, Democrats should expand the Supreme Court to 11 seats and appoint two liberals -- with the appropriate legal qualifications, of course -- to offset that theft. Yes, that would break with tradition. But there is nothing in the Constitution to prevent it, and in our current situation it's high time to get over handwringing about violating such norms.

And the New Yorker reports on a second woman with accusations of sexual misconduct. So now we get to wonder--how many more? I do have to admit, the timing seems unusually auspicious. But I'm all for his withdrawal and that would save the first woman from a public spectacle.

This is the thing--it's not unreasonable to assume abortion rights are being threatened, and so a lot of women would have the motivation to step up and expose his history.

Update (September 24, 2018):  Third? Fourth? Will the political calculation amount to getting the judge they really want for the next few decades at the cost of losing Congress? But if the accusations get even worse, it may be over soon.

Update (September 28, 2018):  Senator Jeff Flake is a piece of shit for voting to advance the nomination--he could have stopped the whole thing on his own. But he got confronted by two women on live TV.

Look at me when I’m talking to you! You’re telling me that my assault doesn’t matter.

And so a combination of pressures has brought about a "limited" FBI investigation that needs to be finished in a week.

Update (September 30, 2018):  It's funny how Republicans get mad when someone steals a page from their playbook. Whoever leaked the first accusation is definitely playing hardball. And Nancy Pelosi gives the best reaction to the nominee's tantrum.

I couldn’t help but think that if a woman had ever performed that way, they would say "hysterical".

Update (October 4, 2018):  The nominee lies about the dumbest things and then Republican Senators are more than happy to tout a handful of letters willing to back up those lies. Jason Biehl characterizes why the Right is fighting so hard for this.

When you’ve never been held accountable for your actions, accountability feels like oppression.

Update (October 5, 2018):  And so the answer is nothing disqualifies in the eyes of Republicans looking for their big win. When I referred to them as fucking pieces of shit, someone objected that I was praising them too highly. He only attempted rape in high school--on the Court he'll be responsible for thousands of women dying from illegal abortions.

Update (May 28, 2019):  Senator Mitch McConnell now says he'd fill an empty Supreme Court seat if one came up during the election year of 2020. And he gets away with that shit.

Update (September 18, 2020):  Sadly, Justice Ginsberg has died only six weeks before the election. McConnell, of course, promises a vote while Senator Schumer throws McConnell's words in his face.

The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President.

Update (September 20, 2020):  Not that hypocracy bothers Republicans--Senator Lindsey Graham in March 2016:

If there’s a Republican president in 2016 and a vacancy occurs in the last year of the first term, you can say Lindsey Graham said let’s let the next president, whoever it might be, make that nomination.

You could use my words against me and you would be absolutely right.

Tipping Point for Coastal Glaciers

A study published in Nature Communications finds that the peripheral glaciers of Greenland started to lose the capacity to refreeze meltwater sometime around 1997. The accelerated melting of coastal ice could spread to the inland ice sheet.

Global warming ... is a clear culprit of this precipitous decline: Higher temperatures have meant not just more meltwater production, but also less firn accumulating every year to absorb the meltwater.

The Fierce Urgency of Now

Today marks 50 years since Dr. Martin Luther King gave a speech opposing the Vietnam War. And a coalition called The Majority is launching a project called Beyond the Moment.

[A]n effort that aims to educate people across the country about important political issues and engage them in various organized efforts to speak out against issues that could harm marginalized communities most.

Update (April 18):  Ira Chernus reflects on King's comment that

The war in Vietnam is but a symptom of a far deeper malady within the American spirit.  If we ignore this sobering reality we will find ourselves... marching... and attending rallies without end. We as a nation must undergo a radical revolution of values.

Amid the growing resistance to the new administration, Chernus concludes:

The largest mobilization for progressive politics since the Vietnam era offers a unique opportunity to go beyond simply treating symptoms and start offering cures for the underlying illness. If this opportunity is missed, versions of the same symptoms are likely to recur, while unpredictable new ones will undoubtedly emerge for the next 50 years, and as Martin Luther King predicted, we will go on marching without end. Surely we deserve a better future and a better fate.