Oceans and Cryosphere

A report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change paints yet another dismal future under "business as usual".

The damage caused by catastrophic "superstorms" combined with rising sea levels could increase by a hundred-fold or more, displacing hundreds of millions of people from coastlines around the world unless more is done to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

In India alone, around 200 million people live in coastal regions. Harjeet Singh:

The question is: where are they going to go? We are talking about one of the most populous countries in the world, which means it’s eventually going to lead to conflict between the host and displaced communities. We are sitting on a timebomb.

Update (September 29):  IPCC Vice Chair Ko Barrett notes that the oceans can no longer keep up with the changes taking place.

[T]he world’s ocean and cryosphere have been taking the heat from climate change for decades; the consequences for nature and humanity are sweeping and severe.

No Bounds

It doesn't seem possible to do something as "cruel and inhumane" as a decision to end medical deferred action (which allowed immigrants with serious illnesses to temporarily remain in the U.S.), potentially impacting thousands of people.

Beginning last week, lawyers for some of these immigrants received boilerplate letters from Citizenship and Immigration Services informing them the agency’s field offices will no longer consider applications for renewal under the program.

Senator Ed Markey is among the critics:

This is a new low for [Fuckface]. The administration is now literally deporting kids with cancer.

Update (August 29):  Sophia Tesfaye suggests even supporters might have a limit.

Whether such displays of cruelty are the cause of [Dear Leader's] plummeting polling on his signature issue — [he] is now deeply underwater on immigration, with even non-college-educated white voters, a large portion of his base, evenly divided at 47- 48 on the issue — or its effect is still up for debate. But the brutality is no longer in question.

Weak Recovery

Bob Hennelly cites the most recent "Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households" from the Federal Reserve to argue the next recession could hit some Americans harder than the one in 2008.

Although the report itself notes improvement over 2013, Hennelly points out that 39 percent of those polled for the report would still have trouble paying a $400 emergency expense, that 25 percent have no retirement savings, that debt has exploded, that a record number of people are behind on car payments, that the proportion of renters is the highest in over 30 years.

One essential element of keeping the lid on America’s collective anger over decades of declining wages, disappearing benefits and actual decline in our average lifespan, is to cover the ups and downs of the economy as if it were some sort of naturally occurring meteorological phenomenon.

But the kinds of market gyrations that promote dislocation and misery for the masses are not the result of gravity or barometric pressure. They are the consequences of decisions driven by an ever-shrinking circle of people and institutions who engineer scarcity — because making a killing is the only way they know how to make a living.

Update (August 27):  Annie Lowrey shows how young adults will be especially susceptible to the next recession.

The toxic combination of lower earnings and higher student-loan balances—combined with tight credit in the recovery years—has led to Millennials getting shut out of the housing market, and thus losing a seminal way to build wealth.

Millennials have put off saving and buying homes, as well as getting married and having babies, because of their crummy jobs and weighty student loans. A downturn that leads to higher unemployment and lower wages will force Millennials to wait even longer to start accumulating wealth, making it far harder for them to accumulate any wealth at all.

Update (February 28, 2022):  Coming out of the pandemic recession, housing prices are soaring. 

[H]ome prices shot up nearly 19% last year, up from a gain of roughly 10% in 2020. That's the steepest one-year increase in the index in more than three decades.

Incomes can't keep up. Daryl Fairweather:

Unfortunately, the middle-class dream of homeownership has been fading away. [It] is a signifier of the upper class now.

Land Use and Food Security

A report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "reveals how land and water are being abused, making food systems increasingly precarious and increasing the spread of desert and non-arable land". Co-author Panmao Zhai:

In general, climate change will cause declined yields, increased prices, reduced nutrient levels and disruptions in supply chains for food.

Robinson Meyer concludes:

Climate change requires us to alter the biogeochemical organism that we call the global economy on the fly, in our lifetimes. Such a task should command most of the time and attention of every economist, agriculturalist, investor, executive, and politician—anyone who fancies themselves a leader in the physical workings of the economy, or whatever we call it. It is our shame, and theirs, that they don't.

Update (August 18):  Dave Borlace discusses the IPCC report and points to George Monbiot's criticism that it "shies away from the big issues and fails to properly represent the science".

If we want to prevent both climate and ecological catastrophes, the key task is to minimise the amount of land we use to feed ourselves, while changing the way the remaining land is farmed.

Update (September 17):  The Food and Land Use Coalition offers "Ten Critical Transitions to Transform Food and Land Use".

Update (September 19):  The Exponential Climate Action Roadmap lists 36 of the most significant solutions for reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 50 percent by 2030.