Neoliberalism is a Sham

A paper published by the International Inequalities Institute called "The Economic Consequences of Major Tax Cuts for the Rich" disputes the benefits of "trickle down" policy. Co-author David Hope:

Our research shows that the economic case for keeping taxes on the rich low is weak. Major tax cuts for the rich since the 1980s have increased income inequality, with all the problems that brings, without any offsetting gains in economic performance.

Update (December 26):  David Masciotra argues that neoliberal policies "have devastated the lives of ordinary people" and cites a RAND Corportation study:

[F]rom 1975 to 2018, the top 1 percent, taking advantage of tax policies, corporate welfare and other built-in benefits, took in $47 trillion that otherwise would have been distributed among the bottom 90 percent.

Masciotra says now is the time to promote a progressive vision for the future.

Centrists insist that "moderation" is the only sensible approach to national politics in a large and diverse country. They might have an argument worthy of consideration if the world's problems were moderate. But the impending climate apocalypse is not moderate, nor is the dramatic and worsening economic inequality, on a scale not seen since the Gilded Age. Those things cannot be addressed with compromises or half-measures.

 

Potential Methane Burst

Robert Hunziker summarizes a talk by Peter Wadhams about the release of methane along the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. While the probability of the event is not quantified, there is concern over a sudden outburst of as much as 50 gigatons.

[W]e’d be getting an extra 0.6°C more or less immediately, a sudden rise of global temperatures… Now, this is not good news because the entire move up since the 19th century has only been one degree centigrade for the planet as a whole, and here we are… adding 0.6°C instantly, within a few months or weeks, we don’t know how instant, but it would be very instant. It’s something we’ve never experienced on this planet.

Update (October 4, 2021):  Hunziker reports on record heat in Siberia and a new source of methane.

Inordinate levels of methane in Siberia were traced to hydrocarbon reservoir rocks, not wetlands, not permafrost, not microbial methane. This ancient methane is stored in carbonates.

On the Cliff of Despair

While a margin of six million votes is decisive for President-elect Biden, I find it depressing to accept that 74 million people voted for the piece of shit who will go down as the worst president in U.S. history. I struggle to see the justification for that choice. I feel far removed from that part of America.

Peter Montague examines the notion of "deaths of despair" quoting Atul Gawande.

When it comes to people whose lives aren’t going well, American culture is a harsh judge: if you can’t find enough work, if your wages are too low, if you can’t be counted on to support a family, if you don’t have a promising future, then there must be something wrong with you. When people discover that they can numb negative feelings with alcohol or drugs, only to find that addiction has made them even more powerless, it seems to confirm that they are to blame. We Americans are reluctant to acknowledge that our economy serves the educated classes and penalizes the rest.

So what happens as that reluctance starts to shift? Montague:

Hopelessness and helplessness join with pain and anger, which are also widely felt. In 2019 an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll reported that 70 percent of Americans say they feel angry "because our political system seems to only be working for the insiders with money and power, like those on Wall Street or in Washington." [Fuckface] promised (falsely) to take down those insiders and restore power to the people.

In an interview with Paul Rosenberg, Jack Goldstone discusses how societies handle organizational failures and how that can lead to revolutions.

The breakdown, the polarization, the divisions of American society are not about [Dear Leader]. They are about people rejecting the actions of an elite — both conservatives and liberals, it really didn't matter; it was both New York elites and Texas elites — rejecting a notion of a society in which winners take all and government should be starved, with no provide benefits or support for communities that are in trouble, and basically leaving people on their own.

[W]hen things are bad enough for a large portion of the population, they are much more easily recruited to movements that say, "We gotta get rid of everything. These are bad people in charge. Things are never going to get better until we get them out of the way." That's how you recruit a mass movement for rebellion or revolution.

Meanwhile, we're speeding toward the largest organizational failure of all and potential collapse. The neoliberal ideology that benefits the few at the expense of the many erodes social cohesion. Goldstone says problems fester when the government's ability to respond is damaged.

How close are you getting to the edge of the cliff? We can't tell exactly where the edge of the cliff is, because you could say it's shrouded in fog. It depends on lots of particular circumstances. But we know there's a cliff out there.

[I]f the moderates cannot work together and cannot get anything done, that strengthens the extremists on both sides.

The polarization will be worse, the anger will be worse, the recrimination on both sides will be vicious and nothing will have been accomplished in four years.

The interview doesn't end there. Rosenberg asks about democratic reforms and Goldstone says there are many ideas to help pull us away from the brink. He insists that we don't just want partisan solutions. But I'm afraid that if we have to rely on the likes of Mitch McConnell for bipartisan cooperation, we just might already be over the edge.

Update (November 23):  Andrew O'Hehir considers where we might be heading. Dear Leader has shown us the sharp conflicts in U.S. politics.

[H]is cruelty, his vulgarity and his open contempt for democracy, the rule of law and constitutional order woke many of us up — and I don't entirely exclude his voters and supporters — to the deep wounds in our society, the lack of any shared understanding of reality and the profound apprehension about the future.

But Democrats are generally unwilling or unable to offer much more than "we're not crazy". 

Rhetorical gestures toward abstract ideals of justice, equality and democracy may have been just about enough to defeat a widely despised and famously incompetent president, but they are not nearly enough to defeat a surging fascist movement built on white nationalism, cultural dispossession, economic stagnation and anti-elite rage.

One political party in America now has a clear agenda and a loyal following, and has now taken a low-risk dry run at seizing and holding power without regard for laws or rules or standards of decency or those famous "democratic norms." That party didn't go all-in on that effort this time around, but it now sees that with the right leader and adequate planning — not to mention the necessary level of force — the task can probably be managed. The other party is against all that, gosh darn it! But it still doesn't know what it wants to be when it grows up, and it may not get the chance.

Update (November 25):  Amanda Marcotte maintains that the 74 million Republican votes are not about the candidate so much as a movement representing the rise of American fascism.

That the most powerful country in the world is being held hostage by an authoritarian, racist minority drunk on conspiracy theories is the biggest story in politics. It's part of a larger story about the entire world in the grip of rising authoritarianism. Their power will define Joe Biden's presidency. Their ability to cripple him will matter more than any of his Cabinet picks or even his executive orders.

[Dear Leader] is just the shorthand for this very real and ongoing problem. The reason it feels like we can't quit [him] is that we can't quit the people who elected him. [W]e shouldn't pander to those people or seek to placate them, but we also can't just ignore them. Not while they still control so many levers of power.

Update (November 27):  Anthony DiMaggio clarifies that "being white and earning a lower income is not significantly associated with an increased statistical likelihood of voting for" Dear Leader.

[S]upport for [him] is not significantly associated with "deaths of despair" among economically insecure whites ... . While [his] white supporters are more likely to say they struggle with depression and alcohol abuse (although not illicit drug abuse), these struggles are not linked to financial insecurity (lower incomes), and such drug problems are common across the income spectrum, among lower, middle, and upper income earners. ... [T]here is very little evidence that support for [him] is seriously linked to financial insecurity, among Americans in general or among whites.

[O]ccupationally stressed, xenophobic white Americans – those who report working overtime or a second job, and who agree that "immigrants exert a harmful impact on society because they take American jobs, housing, and health care" – are significantly more likely to support [Agent Orange]. ... [S]aying that white [supporters] are angry because they are struggling to get ahead in their jobs is very different than saying these individuals are the same people who are being left disproportionately behind in an era of rising inequality and worker insecurity. ... What separates [his] supporters from other Americans, who are also facing occupational stresses is the former’s willingness to blame immigrants for their struggles.

Update (November 28):  Tony McKenna warns against complacency.

It is difficult to imagine that [the Biden administration] will offer the electorate either something qualitatively new or something that's likely to genuinely uplift the economic interests of the vast majority. The cloud of euphoria — which was more about the exorcism of [Dear Leader] than about the ascension of Biden — is likely to dissipate rather quickly under the grind of the neoliberal machine.

[E]fforts to call into question the validity of the democratic process, both before and after the election — on the surface the last-ditch cry of foul by a gaudy vulgarian, will in fact act as a potent rallying point for a political base all too ready to congeal around the notion that a liberal elite has robbed the "anti-establishment" candidate of his rightful win. And the more the Democratic Party pursues its pro-Wall Street policies, the more it will reveal itself as the party of an elite minority.

The slick brand of managerial capitalism which encompasses high finance and a new era of global imperialism, which Biden's administration is almost certainly set to offer, could well create the perfect conditions in which a new type of far-right demagoguery can metastasize; something which will unite the anguished fury of the lower-middle classes with the most rabid fringes of the far right, fusing them into a toxic and potentially lethal brew.

And Paul Edwards sees multiple issues on which there are, perhaps, irresolvable differences--economic, religious, race relations, ecological, foreign policy, labor, immigration, healthcare, and even beliefs about the very function of government.

[T]hese percolating disasters are unintended consequences of an economic system the sole purpose of which is to grind the living world to powder for money; a system without one single provision for the care and preservation of life in any form other than as a source of monetary gain.

There will be no "coming together"; no "healing of wounds". No "long, national nightmare" will be over. The lesions that unrestrained Capitalism has inflicted and left raw and festering on the body politic are not healable, and are fatal.

Update (December 9):  Heather Digby Parton notes that the enormous partisan divide make compromise unlikely.

[Dear Leader] may have lost the legal battle and will lose institutional power within a few weeks. But the danger won't pass anytim soon, because the GOP establishment sees benefit in leveraging this incoherent rage to sabotage what they're essentially claiming will be an illegitimate Democratic presidency. Biden can initiate all the outreach he wants but I don't think GOP officials could put that genie back in the bottle if they wanted to. And they have made it very clear that they don't want to.

Update (December 17):  In a conversation with Bill Moyers, Steven Harper and Heather Cox Richardson consider what the country is heading toward.

Harper:

Hannah Arendt would say when you're bombarded with lies, repeatedly, the purpose of the lie is not really to get you to believe the lie. It's to persuade you to doubt everything. And with such a people, you can do as you please. ... I think that pundits have ... really underestimated [Dear Leader] for a long time by referring to the things he does as "breaking norms." As if a norm is not a big deal. But one of the norms that this country has stood for, and what makes the country what it is, is respect for the rule of law. And if you shatter the rule of law, which is what's been happening again and again and again under [him], what's left? If you eliminate truth, if you eliminate facts, if you let people believe whatever they want to believe, if they confine themselves to the comfortable bubbles of people telling them what they want to hear, I don't think democracy survives that.

Richardson: 

I think there is also the recognition on the part of a number of Republicans that this is it. They have to retain power. Because if they don't, the Democrats will in fact make it easier to vote, and the current day Republican Party is not going to be viable any longer.

But one of the things that [this] administration has done, is it has woken up an awful lot of Americans to the idea that democracy is not a spectator sport. And they're getting involved in ways that they have never been involved before. And they are really starting to understand that what happens in their government matters to their lives. And they're running for office, and they're meeting, and they're writing letters, and they're voting, and they're talking about what it means to be an American. And that, to me, looks like our greatest moments. ... And I really think, when you look at where we are, sure, this could be the end of American democracy and we might see the rise of oligarchy that looks a lot like a modernized version of fascism. But it could also look like a new future. And the work I see people doing on the ground makes me hopeful that that's the direction we're actually going.

Update (December 20):  Paul Rosenberg examines how the perception of victimization (as opposed to actual victimization) drives political support for tyranny. A tyrant will stir up support by feeding into narcissistic beliefs about being better than others and thus deserving special treatment.  Rosenberg quotes Elizabeth Mika:

You can expect the members of historically privileged classes and groups to have a sense of specialness ingrained in them by the virtue of being part of that class. When their sense of privilege is threatened and/or eroded, by, for example, expanding the privilege to others, members of previously disenfranchised and thus 'inferior' groups, they react with anger and rage that seek suitable scapegoats, more often than not from among those who are seen as 'stealing' their privilege or otherwise responsible for its loss. For narcissists, the loss of privilege feels like oppression.

Rosenberg continues:

This description is a near-perfect fit for [Dear Leader's] white, Christian nationalist base. That base easily delivered landslide re-election victories for Richard Nixon in the 70s and Ronald Reagan in the 80s, but has only managed one popular-vote victory since 1988. Its privileged position has been eroding for at least 30 years now, and has only survived this long because of multiple anti-democratic features of our politics: the Electoral College, gerrymandering, voter suppression, the Senate filibuster and ideologically-stacked courts. The longer that power has been sustained on such a fragile, illegitimate foundation, the more crushing its loss would seem. Hello, snowflakes!

Both kinds of victimhood seem central to conducting politics.

If one is not a victim but claims to be, that's very likely an example of envious reversal [a form of projection]. But if one is a snowflake and has spent years attacking others as snowflakes, that's also an example of envious reversal. So, too, if you believe that others are unfairly claiming victim status, when in fact that's been your go-to move ever since Brown v. Board of Education. So there's a potential for this kind of victimhood to lead into a hall-of-mirrors fantasy situation. But remember: This is still subjective victimhood. Questions about how subjective and objective realities align are incredibly important, but to fully address them we need to understand the subjective side as well as can.

Update (January 3, 2021):  Paul Rosenberg argues the United States is not so much a representative democracy as a form of "competitive authoritarianism". He notes antidemocratic features of the U.S. system such as "voter suppression, gerrymandering and the apportionment of U.S. Senate seats" and quotes Mark Copelovitch:

[O]ur electoral institutions have institutionalized minority rule and locked in policies at odds with what large majorities of Americans seem to want on almost every issue.

Bob Hennelly goes further to describe the U.S. as a failed state. 

[T]o finger [Dear Leader] alone for our miserable situation fails to not fully grasp the awful truth that's been decades in the making.

Update (January 10, 2021):  Doug Neiss warns that the "left" and "right" are not on equal footing as threats to democracy. Only one side looks to take on the "not impossible task, except politically" to "improve the quality of life for the lower half or more of the population" and resist "the power of money to subvert or displace any other values people hold".

The U.S. is said to have a two-party system, but many have observed that the parties are suspiciously similar, and refer to the system as a duopoly. They are closer to the truth, which is that we have a single right-wing party that rules, that sets the agenda and the limits of debate, whether officially in power or not, and a second, phantom party that goes through the motions of wielding power or of being in opposition.

If we simply revert to our pre-[Agent Orange] course, however, as the phantom party seems bent on doing, we should be very concerned about what rough beast awaits us on the other side of Joe "soul of America" Biden.

You're Fired!

The lead grew large enough in Pennsylvania for the major news outlets to call the election for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.  At this point 284 to 214 electoral votes according to Associated Press.

Update (November 8):  While there's concern over his behavior for the next several weeks, we can hope the adults prevail.

[The] First Lady ... has joined the growing chorus of [von Clownstick's] inner circle advising him the time has come for him to accept the loss.

Update (November 10):  So because we don't just live in a politically polarized country, but also as people who don't accept the same version of reality, William Barr is allowing baseless voter fraud claims to be investigated. That prompted Richard Pilger, the director of the Election Crimes Branch, to resign from the Department of Justice in protest.

Despite breaking with tradition, it doesn't seem to be a serious effort to overturn the election, merely a way to soothe the fragile ego of the whiner-in-chief.

Amanda Marcotte asks why Mitch McConnell "and other Republicans are refusing to stand up for the integrity of our democracy".

[T]he real reason McConnell is doing this is simple: He does not believe in democracy.

[H]e's treating [Dear Leader's] efforts to invalidate this election as an opportunity. It's not that he thinks [the] clownish power-grab will succeed, although McConnell would certainly be delighted if he did. It's that McConnell sees [the] false accusations of fraud as a pretext he can use to undercut Biden even before he takes office — and in all likelihood to refuse to acknowledge Biden as a legitimate president once he does.

McConnell's main goal with Biden, as it was with Obama, is to make a Democratic presidency look like a failure.

Update (November 12):  Fuckface still refuses to concede the election and Amanda Marcotte sees that as a dangerous message.

Bitter resentment about having to share power with people who aren't white, Christian or conservative is what fueled [Dear Leader's] rise in the first place. He has spent the past five years encouraging his supporters in their bigoted belief that they're the only Americans who count — and therefore the only Americans whose votes should count. His last weeks in office look like they will be defined by his bitter, pugnacious insistence that any vote, anywhere, that wasn't for him should be illegal.

Update (November 13):  Sixteen federal prosecutors have written a letter to William Barr telling him there are no election problems to investigate.

[I]n the 2020 election cycle, there is no evidence of "substantial allegations of voting and vote tabulation irregularities" that "could potentially impact the outcome of a federal election".

Update (November 14):  In light of lack of evidence of election fraud, Fuckface is running out of schemes to overturn the result.

State GOP lawmakers in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have all said they would not intervene in the selection of electors, who ultimately cast the votes that secure a candidate’s victory. Such a move would violate state law and a vote of the people, several noted.

Update (November 17):  It sure is amazing how Republicans throw around baseless claims of election fraud. Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham tried to get absentee ballots thrown out in Georgia and for a short time, there was an attempt to disenfranchise all of Detroit. Governor Gretchen Whitmer:

In refusing to approve the results of the election in Wayne County, the two Republican members of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers have placed partisan politics above their legal duty to certify the election results.

Thankfully, people were paying attention and pressured the Board of Canvassers to certify the election after the initial vote.

The initial action by the GOP board of canvassers members was part of a scheme, promoted by [the president's] campaign, involving local and state-level Republicans on local canvassing and elections boards refusing to certify election results in jurisdictions where Biden won. In doing so, they believe, they could throw the certification decision to Republican-controlled state legislatures that could then choose [Dear Leader] as the winner, even though he lost the popular vote to Biden by almost 3%. Republican legislative leaders have, however, said that they will play no role in the theft of the election.

[Fuckface] praised the initial refusal to certify the Wayne County results in an inaccurate tweet claiming that the certification for statewide Michigan results had been refused.

Update (November 18):  While Biden's win is solid, Paul Waldman argues we kind of got lucky. Only 45,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin would've swung this election--compared to 77,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016.

If [Dear Leader's] team were not such a bunch of buffoons, and if Republican officials at the state level were just a little more corrupt than they already are, he might have been able to steal the election after all.

Update (November 19):  The Michigan story gets more convoluted. The Republican campaign dropped a lawsuit in Wayne County went they thought they had won. And now the two Republican that originally voted against certification want to change their minds again. It seems to be too late for that. Yet Republican leaders from the Legislature are meeting with Fuckface at his request. 

They are fucking relentless. Paul Blumenthal explains how appalling this is.

Republicans now face a litmus test of endorsing a belief that the 2020 election was unfair, a position that undermines the necessary peaceful transfer of power that American democracy would not exist without.

These efforts will all fail. But they augur a terrible turn to the past in the long-standing effort to limit Black voter participation in elections. It harkens back to the long history of racist disenfranchisement perpetrated by the white majority on Black Americans.

And Chris Marshall suggests it's not necessarily clear they won't succeed.

[W]e have the unprecedented spectacle of a president rejecting the results of an election no matter what judges and election officials say, including Republican judges, Republican secretaries of state and relevant officials in his own administration. And now an entire (semi-loyal) political party, with precious few exceptions, abnormally backs up that abnormal president and his abnormal behavior.

[A]ccording to a bogus legal doctrine being pushed by none other than Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch, [the] Article II language means that the state legislature and the state legislature alone makes the election rules, and any other — shall we say "alteration" — of the rules by any other political actor in the normal course of the governmental process is in strict violation of the United States Constitution. Given the prevailing, currently unusual circumstances, then, one might argue that the state legislatures have no real choice, after all, but to intervene and send their own slates of electors to the Electoral College. And it would be perfectly reasonable, would it not, if three of those state legislatures just so happened to judge that [Dear Leader] is the rightful winner instead of Biden?

[O]nly a fool would trust that the forbearance, restraint and fundamental reasonableness of [Fuckface von Clownstick] and the sycophantic cultists who populate his party will be sufficient to rule out availing themselves of the one remaining pathway they have to victory. They have the means, motive and opportunity, and they are unrestrained by principle. Therefore, the smart money says they may well try it. I fear they will choose to be legends. And if they try it, they will work it for all its worth, and, experience teaches us, the vast majority of the thoroughly corrupt, semi-loyal Republican Party will fall dutifully into line like good little authoritarians.

Update (November 20):  There's been no major violence so far and yet we're already fucked as Republicans continue to undermine trust in elections. Heather Digby Parton gives her take on the machinations over electors.

Is any of this remotely possible? Sure. It's unlikely, but it's possible. It's tempting to think this is all so nuts that it could never possibly happen, but we thought everything [Manbaby] has done over the past five years was nuts, and here we are. All our hand-wringing about this plot being un-American and destructive to our democracy is sadly irrelevant — not just to the preposterous Giuliani and the equally preposterous [von Clownstick] but to the entire Republican Party. They have learned the power of total shamelessness, and it is profound. I would never count them out.

And some reassurance from the Michigan legislators who met with Fuckface today.

We have not yet been made aware of any information that would change the outcome of the election in Michigan and as legislative leaders, we will follow the law and follow the normal process regarding Michigan's electors, just as we have said throughout this election.

Once again, we need to be grateful for several local Republican officials with integrity and for the stupidity of the Republican lawyers.

In one section of his affidavit, Ramsland listed as highly suspicious 100% voter turnouts he calculated in 25 districts in Detroit’s Wayne County, which went for Democrat Joe Biden. But all of the districts listed were actually in Minnesota.

Update (November 22):  Ian MacDougall explains the difficulties with trying to get legislatures to appoint electors. 

Update (November 23):  Michigan certifies the election results and the General Services Administration finally signs off on ascertainment.

Update (November 24):  John Stoehr explains why most GOP elected officials are slow to acknowledge Biden's win.

[T]he problem is one of choices. The Republicans do not fear [Dear Leader]. They fear losing power. They are, in intent and in effect, choosing power over principles, power over promises, and power over patriotism. They could choose to explain for the good of the country that [von Clownstick] should get out of the way. But they are choosing not to. We are left, then, with a reasonable conclusion: they believe sticking with [him] gives them an advantage over people who believe some things matter more than power. Sticking with [Fuckface] gives them an advantage over those of us who believe in democracy. They say they are afraid in order to gain advantage over people of good faith who fall for it.

Update (November 25):  Why are we tip-toeing around the fact that Dear Leader is deranged and needs psychiatric help? He called in to some kind of "hearing" in Pennsylvania:

Why wouldn't they overturn an election? Certainly, overturn it in your state.... We have to turn the election over, because there's no doubt. We have all the evidence, we have all the affidavits, we have everything. All we have to do is have some judge listen to it properly.

You can't keep making serious claims for three weeks and never back them up.  

Update (November 26):  It's so tiring to keep reading this bullshit. Maybe he shouldn't even be invited to the inauguration. One donor is suing to get his money back.

It’s going to be a very hard thing to concede, because we know there was massive fraud. This was a massive fraud, this should never take place in this country. We’re like a third-world country.

I know one thing, Joe Biden did not get 80 million votes. This race is far from over.

Update (November 27):  The Republican campaign lost yet another case in the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. The campaign was not even pleading fraud in seeking to overturn the Pennsylvania election.

[C]alling an election unfair does not make it so. Charges require specific allegations and then proof. We have neither here.

But no matter how many cases go against him, Dear Leader remains detached from reality.

Biden can only enter the White House as President if he can prove that his ridiculous “80,000,000 votes” were not fraudulently or illegally obtained. When you see what happened in Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia & Milwaukee, massive voter fraud, he’s got a big unsolvable problem!

Update (November 28):  The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has dismissed a challenge to mail-in ballots. 

Update (November 30):  Yes, it's all over now except for 51 more days of whining and crying.

[O]n Monday, the [election] results met a new official threshold as Arizona and Wisconsin became the final decisive swing states to certify their votes.

Update (December 1):  Eliza Newlin lists six "guardrails" that protected democracy--this time. The military, the courts, the states, the media, the hardware, the voters.

[I]t's worth acknowledging the guardrails that have held fast against the nation's severe democracy stress test, and against [Dear Leader's] specious and ongoing fraud allegations. There's no guarantee these railings would hold against a more sophisticated adversary, and the need to shore up voting rights and election administration remains urgent.

 NOW is it finally over?

Attorney General William Barr said Tuesday the Justice Department has not uncovered evidence of widespread voter fraud that would change the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

Update (December 2):  In an interview with Dean Obeidallah, Ruth Ben-Ghiat acknowledges hearing from non-Americans (in particular people from the Middle East) who are convinced Dear Leader won't be leaving office.

I would caution anybody to think that just because you see [Fuckface] going to play golf or he doesn't have any public events on his schedule, it doesn't mean people are not digging in for this desperate endgame.

Update (December 10):  The Texas Attorney General, joined by 17 other Republican state attorneys general, is suing Georgia, Michigan, Pennsyvania, and Wisconsin over the election. Theoretically, six conservatives could find a reason to keep Fuckface in power. Kristen Clarke:

Were the Supreme Court to agree to hear this meritless suit brought by Texas, we might as well toss the Constitution.

Amanda Marcotte points out most Republican officials have no qualms supporting Dear Leader's attempted coup. Their lack of results was simply "acting more out of legal necessity than a desire to defend democracy". The vote just wasn't close enough to make it possible to steal the election. 

The expressed concern about election integrity is dangerous because the sentiment is not sincere.

Conservatives know better than to openly argue that Democratic votes shouldn't be counted. So instead they concoct this elaborate conspiracy theory, painting themselves as the victims of voter fraud in order to justify an illegal effort to steal the election.

Unfortunately, the belief that these folks are sincere in their claims that the election was "stolen" puts a glow of innocence on their actions. This leads many observers underestimate the seriousness of a situation where a large percentage of Americans are actively supporting a coup. It also focuses attention away from what needs to be done to fight back. The "delusion" model of understanding Republican behavior suggests that education is the solution.

Instead, it's important to see those who support [von Clownstick's] coup for who they are: People who have been radicalized through racism, hateful propaganda and a sense of perpetual grievance, against democracy. They aren't going to change their minds because of new facts, because the underlying belief — which is that they deserve to be in power, no matter what — is the problem here. It's a rising American authoritarianism, and we underestimate it at our peril.

Update (December 11):  Heather Digby Parton acknowledges the attempted coup has failed, but argues that the "guardrails" of democracy have taken a beating.

In a healthy democracy the president of the United States would not be attempting to overturn a legal election, nor would he be able to convince tens of millions of his followers that he was justified in doing so based upon a series of lies so preposterous that normally only a naive child could believe them. In a system that was working, any leader would be humiliated at having been shown to be such a pathetic sore loser in one courtroom after another. His party would show him the door.

Parton quotes Ron Brownstein.

[T]he Republican Party is on a continuum toward the kind of "democratic erosion" visible in other countries ... [where] a party that wins office through a democratic election then seeks to use state power to tilt or completely undermine future elections.

And it turns out the Supreme Court has now rejected the Texas suit for lack of standing. Only two justices even expressed support on that issue let alone any other merits.

Two conservative justices — Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas — said they believed the Supreme Court was technically required to allow Texas to file a bill of complaint, but indicated that they would “not grant other relief,” meaning they would not agree to throw the country into chaos.

But, hey, keep pounding away at those guardrails. We're bound to break through eventually. 

Update (December 14):  As the Electoral College makes it official, I can't help but wonder at the persistent intransigence of the losers. There are protests to "Stop the Steal" even though it's their own Dear Leader who is trying to steal the election. 

Andrew O'Hehir imagines there are still people with whom he shares "enough assumptions about the world to have a coherent conversation about what has gone wrong and how to fix it". Yet we can't say what kind of political world we are transitioning into and he asks

Is the collapse of America really happening, or is it all just a hilarious troll — and how will we know the difference?

O'Hehir quotes John Ganz:

This question "Are they just delusional or do they really believe this insanity?" that we are constantly forced to ask is precisely the same question people ask about totalitarian regimes, because they practice a politics that confounds the boundaries between belief and cynicism.

Update (December 15):  Is Senator Mitch McConnell finally, finally the last word on this?

The Electoral College has spoken. So today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden. The president-elect is no stranger to the Senate. He's devoted himself to public service for many years. Beyond our differences, all Americans can take pride that our nation has a female vice president-elect for the very first time.

Update (December 21):  Incredibly, it is still not over. Amanda Marcotte refers to a New York Times story about Dear Leader talking about martial law with lunatics like Michael Flynn at the White House.

The story isn't just alarming because [Fuckface] is flirting with violence, either. It's alarming because it's proof that [he] is continuing to push these idiotic conspiracy theories because he really, truly does think there's still a way for him to steal this election.

Update (December 28):  Rupert Murdoch owned New York Post published an editiorial with the front page headline, "Stop the Insanity".

You have tweeted that, as long as Republicans have "courage," they can overturn the results and give you four more years in office.

In other words, you’re cheering for an undemocratic coup.

And further.

Michael Flynn suggesting martial law is tantamount to treason. It is shameful.

Update (January 3, 2021):  All the Republicans planning to challenge the electoral vote count in Congress are encouraging this insanity.

[Fuckface von Clownstick] on Saturday pressured Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a fellow Republican, to recalculate the state’s tally of presidential election votes to overturn President-elect Joe Biden’s win.

This is a quote from the actual recorded phone call.

We have won this election in Georgia. And there’s nothing wrong with saying that, Brad. You know, I mean, having the correct ― the people of Georgia are angry. ... And there’s nothing wrong with saying that, you know, that you’ve recalculated.

Update (January 4, 2021):  In response to Dear Leader, Brad Raffensperger points out "that the data he had is just plain wrong". Also, Democrats call for his indictment. Representative Pramila Jayapal:

[Fuckface] once again abused the power of his office, demanded interference in our elections, betrayed this country, and attacked our democracy. We must hold him fully accountable, even after he leaves office. There must be justice.

Update (January 5, 2021):  Even George Will slams the Republican challenge for the electoral vote count.

On Wednesday, the members of the Hawley-Cruz cohort will violate the oath of office in which they swore to defend the Constitution from enemies "foreign and domestic". They are its most dangerous domestic enemies.

Update (January 25, 2021):  Amanda Marcotte highlights the efforts of pro-democracy activists such as the Democracy Defense Coalition to stop the efforts to steal the election. 

The true story of how [Fuckface] was defeated, by regular people who fought for their democracy, is empowering. It can convince people to keep up the fight. So while no one should doubt [he] is an idiot, it's important to give credit where it's due for his defeat: On the progressives who fought him, every step of the way.

For a New Day

Andrew O'Hehir looks past next week.

In terms of conventional political outcomes, the recent explosion of activism among younger adults and teenagers, from the post-Parkland student movement to Greta Thunberg and the climate strikers to the massive Black Lives Matter protests all across America (and the world) this past summer, has not actually accomplished anything. But those are unmistakable expressions of political power that announce the rising consciousness of a new generation.

These younger activists have noticeably shifted the national temperature and the national discourse on guns and the climate crisis and police violence. They have helped create an environment where the widespread popular rejection of [Fuckface von Clownstick] and the Republican agenda seems not just possible but nearly inevitable. There is no way to know what long-term political impact they will have, but they offer far more lasting hope for the renewal of democracy than whatever President Joe Biden and a hypothetical Democratic Congress may accomplish.

This year's election will come and go — and that can't happen soon enough. But Americans are beginning to understand what political power is, and how it works. Maybe they'll learn to use it before it's too late.

Heather Digby Parton adds that "electoral grassroots organizing is still vital". State power is essential for political movements to have real accomplishments.

[T]he new progressives in Congress ... will need the passion and numbers of outside movements to help them leverage their power on the inside. If they can do that effectively they may end up showing the Republicans, and the world, what a government that's actually responsive to the people looks like.

Greenland is Melting Faster

A study published in Nature uses modeling to predict that the rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet this century will exceed any previous rate during the entire Holocene. Matthew Rosza notes one anticipated impact.

[I]f [the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation] is slowed down or even halted entirely because of the infusion of melted icewater from Greenland, it could have unpredictable and disruptive consequences for humanity and the rest of life on Earth.

"Stand Back and Stand By"

Nothing says Law and Order like a president who refuses to condemn white supremacists. This is the same Administration that's willing to defy a court order about conducting the census. This is someone who conducted a racist campaign of targeting 3.5 million black voters in 2016 to discourage them from voting.

Even Fox News can't spin the refusal.

[He] blew the biggest layup in the history of debates by not condemning white supremacists. I don't know if he didn't hear it, but he's got to clarify that right away. That's like, "Are you against evil?"

Heather Digby Parton sees a clear intention with a deranged debate performance.

[H]e's openly calling for violence and intimidation around the election. He may end up finally leaving office at the end of this ordeal, but it appears that he's prepared to leave a smoldering ruin of a country in his wake.

Update (October 1):  Amanda Marcotte offers her take on this lunatic.

[N]one of this is the behavior of a man who thinks he's winning. [Agent Orange] is lashing out because he knows he's a failure and a loser, and he's trying to hold that truth at arm's length with a torrent of lies and violent threats.

Update (October 9):  Fuckface during the September 29 debate:

[S]omebody has got to do something about antifa and the left because this is not a right-wing problem, this is a left-wing problem.

And now the FBI has announced arrests related to a plot to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. 

In total, 12 people were arrested on Wednesday on state and federal charges. One day later, six men were charged in the alleged kidnapping plot.

The FBI said the alleged plot involved a Michigan militia. Suspects allegedly surveilled Whitmer's vacation home twice and discussed bringing her to a remote area in Wisconsin to face trial for "treason."

[Dear Leader has] repeatedly attacked Whitmer over her coronavirus restrictions. In April, the president called to "liberate Michigan." 

Update (October 18):  Fuckface continues to incite violence against Governor Whitmer. 

When the crowd started chanting "Lock her up," with absolutely no justification, [Dear Leader] smiled and repeated the phrase. Then he chillingly added: "Lock 'em all up."

Tax Dodger

The New York Times obtained 20 years of tax returns for Fuckface von Clownstick. The Times reports Dear Leader paid only $750 of federal income tax for 2016 and paid nothing in ten of the previous 15 years. He is also over $400 million in debt with loans coming due over the next four years. I.R.S. fines could amount to $100 million.

The tax returns that [Mr. Orange] has long fought to keep private tell a story fundamentally different from the one he has sold to the American public. His reports to the I.R.S. portray a businessman who takes in hundreds of millions of dollars a year yet racks up chronic losses that he aggressively employs to avoid paying taxes. Now, with his financial challenges mounting, the records show that he depends more and more on making money from businesses that put him in potential and often direct conflict of interest with his job as president.

I can't wait for him to prove The Times wrong when he immediately releases his true tax returns! 

Update (September 28):  Andrew Weissmann suggests Fuckface owes that money to Russians.

Update (September 29):  Roger Sollenberger says Manbaby might owe as much as $1 billion. He quotes Barb McQuade.

Someone with a mountain of debt like [the president] is a national security risk and would be unable to get a security clearance if he were any other government employee. When someone is desperate for cash, they are susceptible to blackmail or bribery. For that reason, people with massive debt or in bankruptcy are not permitted access to our nation's secrets.

Amanda Marcotte points out Dear Leader tends to actively makes things worse. Quoting Greg Sargent:

[T]hese tax returns show that [his] epic cheating wasn't shrewd so much as a desperate effort to "compensate for truly epic levels of incompetence and failure."

[W]e can see the same tendencies playing out with the coronavirus pandemic. If [he] had simply left well enough alone, letting public health officials do their job, the pandemic would still be bad, but would now be much better contained.

Marcotte also quotes First Daughter that "my dad's communication style is not to everyone's taste" but that "the results speak for themselves." 

Yeah, First Daughter: They do. ... [A]s these tax documents prove, it's a lie that goes back decades. [Agent Orange] is both an asshole and a terrible businessman, quite possibly the worst on planet Earth. He surrounds himself in gold-plated cheese, but his real Midas talent is his ability to turn anything he touches to ashes. He did it to his endlessly fake and failed business enterprises, and now he's doing it to our country.

Update (September 30):  David Cay Johnston explains Fuckface's history of tax fraud and how tax avoidance is common among the wealthy. 

Getting caught cheating, again and again, didn't make him into anything even vaguely resembling an honest taxpayer.

What [he] did learn long ago from his mentor and "second father," the notoriously corrupt lawyer Roy Cohn, was to lie, cheat, steal and never ever apologize or concede any fact. Just tie the authorities up for years and make them pour their limited resources into a case so they will give up and cry uncle.

Update (October 5):  Alex Henderson notes that tax avoidance is not the same as tax evasion and discusses an article by Derek Thompson which presents three scenarios for understanding Fuckface's tax history.

Explanation 1: [His] Businesses Are Doing Terribly, Explanation 2: Extremely Questionable Tax Maneuvering, and Explanation 3: A Mystery Only Prosecutors Can Unwind.

Update (October 9):  James McFadden speculates on who leaked the tax returns. 

Update (January 1, 2023):  After three years of legal battles, the House Ways and Means Committee released six years of Fuckface tax returns. David Cay Johnston analyzes the many instances of fraud.

One technique he used at least 26 times between 2015 and 2020 was as simple as it was flagrant. [Von Clownstick] filed sole proprietor reports, known as Schedule C, that showed huge business expenses despite having zero revenue. That created losses which [he] used to offset his income from work and investments, thus lowering his income taxes. Additional Schedule Cs had expenses exactly equal to revenues while only a few showed profits.

The 65 Schedule Cs [Dear Leader] filed as a candidate and as president helped him convert a federal tax bill that could have been as high as $46 million into a $2.1 million profit from the federal tax system.

Climate Change Maps

ProPublica published a series of maps showing the expected impact of climate change in the United States over the next several decades.

[W]arming temperatures and changing rainfall will drive agriculture and temperate climates northward, while sea level rise will consume coastlines and dangerous levels of humidity will swamp the Mississippi River valley.

The most suitable "niche" will change dramatically.

By 2040 to 2060, ProPublica reports, extreme temperatures will become the norm in the South and Southwest. But it’s not just heat that will drive Americans out of their homes: humidity and rainfall patterns will also make it difficult for the human body to control its own temperature for one out of every 20 days of the year in the Midwest and Louisiana by 2050. Farm productivity, of course, will also be exacerbated by this — much of the agricultural industry will be obsolete by then.

Meanwhile, satellite images show current disasters "before what is typically peak wildfire season in the West and with 2½ months left in the official Atlantic hurricane season".

Not to mention the emerging new climate in the Arctic and disintegrating glaciers in the Antarctic.

Update (September 18):  The disintegration refers to a PNAS study of the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers. They already contribute about five percent of sea level rise and would potentially add 4 feet of rise in total.

Nearing 1.5 Degrees

A report from the United Nations, the World Meteorological Organization, and other groups finds an increasing probability of global mean temperature exceeding the 1.5 degree Celcius increase limit proposed in the Paris agreement.

[I]n the five-year period 2020–2024, the annual mean global near surface temperature is predicted to be between 0.91 °C and 1.59 °C above pre-industrial conditions (taken as the average over the period 1850 to 1900). The chance of at least one year exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is 24%, with a very small chance (3%) of the five-year mean exceeding this level.

Just two years ago the expectation of exceeding 1.5 degrees was sometime between 2030 and 2052.

And Elizabeth Weil writes about this past Labor Day.

This was the weekend that climate change, in California, stopped being about the future. The weekend that the idea that COVID-19 was worse than climate change, or fascism was worse than climate change, disappeared.

Fascist Violence

Although Amanda Marcotte sees someone who gets an ego boost watching people fighting because of him, Heather Digby Parton points out the significance of soon-to-be former advisor Kellyanne Conway's statement that "the more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns, the better it is for the very clear choice on who's best on public safety and law and order".

Conway's little gaffe in which she admitted that the White House and the [Fuckface] campaign believe street violence is good for them illuminates the president's fanning of the flames. He has finally grasped that he cannot unilaterally sending in a bunch of federal cops, as he did in Washington to stage his photo-op last June. Instead, he's not-very-subtly signaling to his gun-toting fans that they are going to have to take action on their own if they hope to scare people into voting for him. Leave the propaganda to him, just ramp up the chaos.

In fact, Agent Orange defended a 17-year-old vigilante who killed two people at a protest in Kenosha, Wisconsin over yet another police shooting of a black man.

Joe Biden notes that Republicans are trying to scare the country about what would happen under a Biden Administration and yet the violence is happening under their watch.

It’s getting worse, and you know why. Because [Dear Leader] adds fuel to every fire. Because he refuses to even acknowledge that there’s a racial justice problem in America. Because he won’t stand up to any violence.

Republicans look ridiculous describing Biden as a leftist.

I want to make it absolutely clear. Rioting is not protesting. Looting is not protesting. Setting fires is not protesting. None of this is protesting — it’s lawlessness. Plain and simple. And those who do it should be prosecuted.

Ask yourself, do I look like a radical socialist with a soft spot for rioters? Really? I want a safe America, safe from COVID, safe from crime and looting. Safer from racially motivated violence, safe from bad cops. Let me be crystal clear. Safe from four more years of [Fuckface von Clownstick].

Yet Joshua Shanes refers to a number of recent incidents suggesting a rise in white violence around the United States. US Crisis Monitor tracks political violence.

It’s worth examining the direct connection between the violence we witnessed in the past week and the political performances of the Republican National Convention. The alleged Kenosha shooter, it’s important to note, had posted images from a front-row seat at a [Fuckface] rally earlier this year. Meanwhile, two of the stars of the RNC were a Missouri couple also famous solely for waving guns at Black Lives Matter protesters. This represents a growing and open policy by the president and his party to encourage violent supporters and their racist causes.

David Atkins argues the escalating tension is because "white supremacists are invading American cities with the express intent of starting a civil war". We are confronting a dangerous person.

Americans won’t be safe as long as a white supremacist president is leading a movement of bigots to incite a civil war, and attempting to ensure that the majority of Americans with cosmopolitan, egalitarian values remain politically disenfranchised and under the thumb of those who fear and despise them.

Stuart Stevens says the United States is in the most dangerous period since the Civil War and current Republican leaders are moral cowards.

I cannot tell you what being a conservative means right now. Right now, all the Republican Party cares about is power.

David Frum calls Fuckface a secessionist who believes that "since we are two countries, we can have two sets of laws and rules: one for friends, another for enemies".

[He] regards himself as a wartime president of Red America against Blue America. That's how he can describe riot and disorder as happening in 'Biden's America,' even when it happens under his presidency.

Update (September 7):  Cody Fewwick quotes Russian dissident Nadya Tolokonnikova.

Our president has only just recently had the law changed so that he can stay in power until 2036, but his program of repression didn’t start out this blatantly. These things happen in pieces, bit by bit, small acts. And each one may even seem relatively benign at first, perhaps bad, but not fatal. You get angry, maybe you speak out, but you get on with your life. The promise of our democracy was chipped away in pieces, one by one: corrupt cronies appointed, presidential orders issued, actions taken, laws passed, votes rigged. It happens slowly, intermittently; sometimes we couldn’t see how steadily. Autocracy crept in, like the coward it is.

It might not take much more than the threat of violence to achieve the desired effect. Yet, Heather Cox Richardson seems cautiously optimistic that Americans from across the political spectrum are resisting Dear Leader's attack on democracy.

[W]e should definitely worry.

But should we despair? Absolutely not.

Convincing people the game is over is one of the key ways dictators take power. Scholars warn never to consent in advance to what you anticipate an autocrat will demand. If democracy were already gone, there would be no need for [Fuckface] and his people to lie and cheat and try to steal this election.

Update (September 13):  Anthony DiMaggio identifies Dear Leader's poll watching initiative as part of a pattern of "creeping fascism".

The creeping/aspiring fascist framework is advantageous because it looks at fascism as existing on a political spectrum, with nations moving relatively closer to or further away from fascism over time. ... [T]he risk is that American fascism will take a more "friendly" form. As I’ve documented in previous research, the distinctly American-"friendly" version of creeping fascism involves far-right reactionaries like Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, and [Fuckface] smuggling fascistic, racist, and authoritarian themes into "mainstream" media discourse, while denying the extremism of these positions. ... [F]ascistic discourses and political aspirations continue to be sold through Orwellian propaganda techniques – celebrated through the rhetoric about freedom, liberty, and democratic empowerment.

Nowhere in this initiative does the president or his supporters advertise that "poll watching" is a euphemism for "vigilante white supremacist goons coming together in mass to harass, intimidate, and terrorize people of color in a massive voter suppression effort."

[The] initiative, coupled with his celebrations of vigilante violence against his political enemies, represents a ticking time bomb in its potential to provoke disaster come election day. This administration represents an existential threat to what little remains of American democratic institutions and the rule of law.

And Cody Fenwick wonders why Dear Leader celebrates the death of someone accused of killing one of his supporters rather than calling for justice as normal political leaders would.

[T]he U.S. Marshals killed him. And I will tell you something: That’s the way it has to be. There has to be retribution when you have crime like this.

Update (September 16):  Amanda Marcotte sees Dear Leader preparing his followers to do what it takes to keep him in power.

The beauty of "retribution" as an excuse for violence is how flexible it is. Implicit in [his] unhinged comments is a belief that laws against murder are too strict, and that his followers should feel free to transgress them if they conclude that the target of their ire has it coming.

Update (October 13):  FiveThirtyEight has the election at 334 to 163 for Biden right now, but Sonali Kolhatkar argues Dear Leader is too dangerous to be defeated by an election. 

In repeatedly denouncing poll results as "fake" (here and here, and many other places), and lying repeatedly about nonexistent "voter fraud," he is laying the groundwork among his army of supporters to become motivated by a false belief that their president is being denied a legitimate win and charge to defend him on Election Day.

Democrats are doing nothing to stop a rushed Supreme Court confirmation and Kolhatkar states few people in the U.S. believe a power grab can happen here.

Even though [Fuckface] suddenly remembered a day after the debate that he apparently didn't know who the Proud Boys were, the group immediately announced it would be delighted to serve him, and issued a new logo reflecting their new marching orders from the president. If such a scenario were playing out in another nation, the U.S. State Department and American media outlets would be referring to the Proud Boys as an "armed right-wing paramilitary" group that the nation's leader is calling up in order to threaten a coup.

Update (October 26):  Police departments are preparing for violence whether Fuckface wins or loses. But not to worry.  Carl Bernstein says Senate Republicans--those paragons of virtue--are discussing what to do if Dear Leader refuses to leave. And Greg Sargent identifies five scenarios where we might get throught the election with just an all caps tweet storm.

Greenland Ice Sheet

A paper published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment using over 30 years worth of satellite data finds that the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced an increase in melting at the start of the century that was "sufficient to effectively shift the ice sheet to a state of persistent mass loss".

The implication is that the ice sheet may have passed the point of no return.

The researchers found that, throughout the 1980s and 90s, snow gained through accumulation and ice melted or calved from glaciers were mostly in balance, keeping the ice sheet intact.

Before 2000, the ice sheet would have about the same chance to gain or lose mass each year. In the current climate, the ice sheet will gain mass in only one out of every 100 years.

Co-author Ian Howat:

Glacier retreat has knocked the dynamics of the whole ice sheet into a constant state of loss. Even if we were to stabilize at current temperatures, the ice will continue to disintegrate more quickly than if we hadn't messed with the climate to begin with.

Update (September 4):  A study published in Nature Climate Change finds that ice sheets are melting at a rate matching worst-case scenarios from previous forecasts.

Melting of ice in Greenland has pushed the world’s oceans up by 10.6mm since the sheets were first monitored by satellite in the 1990s, while Antarctic ice has contributed a further 7.2mm. The latest measurements show the world’s seas are now rising by 4mm each year.

Melting ice now contributes more to sea level rise than thermal expansion.

Update (July 23, 2023):  A rediscovered ice core includes frozen soil from Northwest Greenland. 

As scientists started to sieve it to separate out the sediment, they were surprised to see twigs, mosses, leaves and seeds.

[They] calculated that the sediment was deposited in an ice-free environment roughly 416,000 years ago.

This doesn't bode well. 

Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are 1.5 times higher now than they were 400,000 years ago, and global temperatures keep climbing.

If Greenland's ice sheet saw rapid melting during a period of moderate warming, it "may be more sensitive to human-caused climate change than previously understood – and will be vulnerable to irreversible, rapid melting in coming centuries," the study authors said in a statement.

130 Degrees Fahrenheit

If verified, the temperature recorded in Death Valley, California would be the hottest on Earth since 1913 and possibly the warmest unquestioned reading ever.

Meanwhile, Robert Hunziker reports on massive fires in the Amazon and Siberia.

[T]he very region of the planet that’s famous for the coldest temps of all time is now recording Miami-type summer temps like 100°F.

The fires are double trouble as one half of the fires are on peatlands, which, once started, can burn almost forever if the heat is intense enough (which it is) emitting both carbon dioxide and methane.

Update (August 22):  Nina Golgowski reports on all the overlooked climate news.

Update (September 10):  Matthew Green reports it's becoming clearer that some extreme events wouldn't be happening without anthropogenic climate change.

In recent weeks, the world has seen ferocious wildfires in the U.S. West, torrential rains in Africa, weirdly warm temperatures on the surface of tropical oceans, and record heat waves from California to the Siberian Arctic.

This spate of wild weather is consistent with climate change, scientists say, and the world can expect even more extreme weather and higher risks from natural disasters as global emissions of greenhouse gases continue.

An Historic Election

Joe Biden would be the oldest person ever elected president and Kamala Harris would be the first woman, the first Black person, and the first Indian American to be elected vice president. Those on the left can debate her merits. And the campaign has already turned ugly.

But Amanda Marcotte has a stark warning:

This election, at the end of the day, is coming down to one single question: Will [von Clownstick] be able to steal it?

It doesn't help that the U.S. Postal Service is now alerting states to make adjustments for late ballots. Marcotte is hopeful people will be prepared to do something about it.

Organizers and journalists, thankfully, have considerable resources when it comes to convincing voters that this threat is real and must be taken seriously.

Having [Dear Leader] confess to his nefarious plan on TV helps circumvent that reluctance to believe that, yes, he really is trying to steal the election.

For journalists and pundits, the most important thing is to break long-standing habits of viewing everything in electoral politics through the filter of standard horse-race analysis. That stuff just doesn't matter as much in an election where there's only one way [Fuckface] can possibly win: by cheating.

How something will "play" with voters doesn't much matter if voters can't vote. And that's what this election will come down to: Whether people get a chance to vote at all.

The only way we get back to normal is by facing this problem head on: The president is trying to steal the election, he has the means to do it, and he very well may succeed unless he's met with massive, organized resistance.

Update (August 15):  Representative Bill Pascrell has made a "criminal referal" to New Jersey Attorney General Gurbir Grewal.

I call upon you to open a wide-ranging investigation of [Dear Leader's] actions to interfere in our elections and to empanel a grand jury for the purpose of considering criminal indictments for [Fuckface von Clownstick], U.S. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy .... [who] are participating in ... the subversion of New Jersey state elections.

We do not have much time to prepare and our state, like others, will rely absolutely on the USPS’s efficiency. Amid this ongoing pandemic, the USPS will be the electoral heart and engine of New Jersey’s and America’s electoral machinery.

American democracy is today in question.

Update (August 16 ):  Democrats in the House of Representatives are calling on Louis DeJoy to testify at a committee hearing.

Update (August 17):  Heather Digby Parton reminds us that voter suppression is a Republican tradition.

[Dear Leader] is taking it to a new level, however, by attempting to suppress Republican votes right along with Democrats. For years the GOP has been pushing voting by mail to help their senior and rural constituencies who have tended to prefer it.

All of this is downright self-defeating if he wants to get out his vote, but that's clearly not what he's trying to achieve.

It appears that all this nonsense is in service of a plan to contest his defeat if the vote count is delayed or if there's any significant confusion, regardless of the vote margin. And he won't have to go it alone. The New York Times reported last May that the Republican Party was gearing up to help him.

This isn't a [Fuckface] thing. It's a GOP thing. And it's been going on for a very long time. At some point, this country is going to have to come to terms with the fact that the Republican Party is fundamentally hostile to democracy and do something about it.

Have lawsuits caused Agent Orange to change his tune?

SAVE THE POST OFFICE!

Also, Amanda Marcotte argues that impeachment worked to get more people to actually pay attention to this latest attempt to steal the election.

Yes, he was technically acquitted by the Republican-controlled Senate, but it's unlikely there's a single soul in this country that actually mistakes that vote for an assertion that [Manbaby] is innocent. On the contrary, the evidence of [his] guilt that was brought to bear was overwhelming, and the acquittal was really more a demonstration of the widespread Republican embrace of cheating in service of winning elections.

In other words, the sustained attention to the Ukraine scandal made one thing absolutely clear: [Fuckface] has no compunction about cheating to win in 2020.

The question is no longer about whether [he] is corrupt, but more about whether or not voters care about that. Now that his corruption is threatening their ability not just to vote but to receive all the things ordinary people get by mail, there's good reason to believe it will finally come back to bite him.

And Zach Carter says von Clownstick must be held accountable.

[He] admitted to a serious crime last week — one much more severe than his effort to coerce the Ukrainian government into attacking his political rival, which rightly resulted in his impeachment.

[T]his is not a moment for the theater of public questioning alone. It demands action — subpoenas, investigations and documentation that state lawmakers can use to bring legal action against the administration swiftly. Time is running out.

Update (August 18):  Bob Cesca lays out the plan to steal the election--convince the MAGAs not to worry about the pandemic so that they'll be willing to vote in person, challenge absentee voting everywhere as fraudulent, sabotage confidence in the U.S. Postal Service, and limit options even further by getting rid of ballot drop boxes.

The ultimate goal here is to disenfranchise his opposition while corralling his supporters into voting booths on Election Day. Any absentee ballots that make it through [Dear Leader's] gauntlet will face legal challenges before they're counted. As long as the options are narrow, he can control the process.

[T]hat's on top of the voter ID laws, voter purges, voting booth restrictions and all the rest of it. The party of [Agent Orange] knows its days are numbered, so it's doing everything it can to rig the process against the growing majority of Americans who are done with [Fuckface] and all his insanity and fascism.

There's still time to stop him. We have to. Once he's gone, former U.S. attorney Glenn Kirschner's concept for a [Fuckface] Crimes Commission should be launched, investigating a wide range misdeeds, up to and including the sabotage of the USPS. I hope [Manbaby] and his adult children have picked out non-extradition nations and packed their go-bags. They'll need 'em.

Update (August 20):  Amanda Terkel and Brooklyn Wayland have a collection of Fuckface statements aimed at undermining the election.

And what's this? Republicans failed to produce any evidence of election fraud related to mail-in ballots for a Pennsylvania lawsuit? Could they be inventing the whole issue of election fraud?

Update (August 21):  It sure is infuriating. Rather than take steps to prevent problems, Fuckface would rather rant about the evils of mail-in voting every day until the election and beyond.

You’ll never have an election count on November 3rd. You’re not going to be able to know the end of this election, in my opinion, for weeks, months — maybe never.

Alan Blotcky says Dear Leader is growing increasingly desperate and that "[h]is psyche will continue to unravel before our eyes".

[Agent Orange] is now trying to steal the election by crippling the Postal Service. He is fueling a campaign of voter suppression. He knows it is his only chance to win. He is adamantly opposed to national mail-in voting. Such voting would defeat him for certain. No matter what happens with mail-in voting, [Manbaby] is already setting the stage for claims that he is the victim of voter fraud. This could conceivably allow him to confound and even paralyze the whole election process.

The next 11 weeks will be unsettling and scary for all of us. That is not presidential leadership; that is psychiatric disturbance breathing unrest and disarray into our daily lives.

Update (August 24):  After Louis DeJoy's testimony to the House Oversight Committee, Amanda Marcotte says Democrats need to continue to urge people to vote by mail early and use drop boxes.

DeJoy's scowling performance on Monday did little to dissuade fears that he's deliberately undermining the post office, either partially or entirely for the purpose of helping [Dear Leader] steal the election.

Update (August 28):  As Fuckface himself rants against mail-in voting, it seems Junior made a recorded call to supporters.

I’m calling on behalf of the Republican National Committee because my father, ... has already made you an official absentee ballot request which may have already arrived or will soon arrive. [He] is counting on you to make a plan to return your absentee ballot request.

Meanwhile, Julia Conley refers to a CBS poll to argue Biden is wasting effort trying to appeal to moderate Republicans. At this point Biden is winning a lower percent of Republican votes than Obama or even Clinton.

Among Republicans, Biden trails 5 to 93 percent. Among Independents, Biden trails 37 to 47 percent. Among Democrats, Biden leads 95 to 3 percent. Overall, Biden leads 52 to 42 percent.

Conley quotes David Sirota:

Three things stand out in this new CBS poll: 

1. Biden has a solid overall lead (good!) 

2. [Agent Orange] has a disturbingly big lead among independents (bad!) 

3. There's basically no such thing as a Biden Republican, which means defeating [Dear Leader] is all about Democratic turnout.

But then Amanda Marcotte says the only Republican strategy is to "actively incite and encourage violence, and then turn around and feign outrage while promising voters 'law and order'". Reed Galen explains the contest will get closer and come down to swing voters in key states. The hope is that Republicans are doing nothing to appeal to those voters.

[Fuckface] and his campaign look at their polling and know he can’t win a majority of the vote. They’re not even trying. Instead, [von Clownstick] is hoping to do nothing more than keep the election from being a total blowout on Election Day. That way, he has a chance to roll the dice and hit the Electoral College the hard way — or, failing that, utilize his goon squad to stir up trouble, contest the election and make the transition from his administration to Biden’s incredibly disruptive and painful.

Update (September 3):  Agent Orange is stirring up the chaos by telling people to vote twice. Karen Hobert Flynn, president of Common Cause, responds:

The Department of Justice needs to make absolutely clear to the public that what the president is encouraging his supporters to do is to commit a felony punishable by jail time. This cannot be the cable news fumbling of Attorney General William Barr trying to not to offend the president by excusing his urging of Americans to commit crimes.

What [Fuckface] is suggesting his supporters do is not only nonsense, but it is also a felony meant to undermine the integrity of our elections. You cannot test election integrity rules by breaking them any more than you can rob a bank to make sure your money is safe.

Also, in North Carolina it is illegal for "any person with intent to commit a fraud to register or vote at more than one precinct or more than one time, or to induce another to do so". [Emphasis added]

Former FBI special agent Asha Rangappa has a theory.

[He] knows he’s going to lose in a fair fight. So he tells his supporters to vote twice, knowing some of them are dumb enough to try. When they get arrested, he’ll claim that [his] voters are being targeted, deep state, rigged, etc. but Democrats are getting away with "fraud".

But it's just one part of the plan to steal the election. Amanda Marcotte has an update.

[T]he sheer number of schemes in play is all the more reason to worry, because it shows [Dear Leader's] team is flexible and capable of adapting to changing circumstances.

1. Keep as many Democrats as possible from voting in the first place.
2. Declare victory on Election Day before final results are tallied.
3. Disqualify as many mail-in ballots as possible.
4. Build an ad hoc right-wing militia to intimidate election officials or pro-democracy protesters.
5. If all else fails, reject the election results by declaring the election "rigged" and refuse to leave office.

We're hoping to find out that at least somewhat less than half of all voters are insane. But then there's this:

A YouGov poll taken in January 2020 shows that a majority of Republican voters agree that the "traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it" and only 22% were willing to disagree. Similarly, 41% believed that "a time will come when patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands" and only 22% disagreed. The rest were "unsure," which likely means they will either softly support such violence or at least will do nothing to stop it.

Update (September 14):  Heather Digby Parton reiterates what we know:

It's obvious by now that [Fuckface] is no longer trying to win the election by legitimate means.

The idea here is to end election night with [Dear Leader] in the lead and cement the idea that he's the winner, no matter what.

But there is reason to hope things might work out better than we imagine. 

Democrats are well aware that Florida counts its mail-in votes quickly, so winning there is more important than ever. If that happens [Fuckface] will find the tables turned on him and will suddenly have to tell his voters to wait for the mail-in votes in other states to be counted. He'll still cause chaos and declare that the vote was stolen elsewhere, of course. But it sure won't look good if his "perfect" state goes the wrong way.

Update (September 23):  The focus now is on election day and only counting votes on that day. Lawsuits will be filed and the courts may end up deciding the winner of the presidential election. Filling a Supreme Court seat before the election is now crucial to the plan. Heather Digby Parton:

I thought [Dear Leader] was being shortsighted in his desire to "win" this battle before the election — but maybe I was wrong. Frankly, I'm pretty sure that if the Republicans thought he could win the election outright they would have persuaded him to use the open Supreme Court seat to help him get out the vote. But they all know that he's extremely unpopular and highly unlikely to win a free and legitimate contest. So they've decided to try to re-run the disastrous 2000 election and have their partisan majority on the Supreme Court install [Fuckface] for another term instead. It worked marvelously the first time around — and it's probably their best shot.

We're left with the hope that the rush to appoint new justice is motivating enough to produce a landslide win for Democratic candidates. 

Update (September 24):  While Joshua Geltzer offers some reassurances about the law, it's hard not to be nervous when Agent Orange gives this answer on whether he's committed to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose in the election:

We are going to have to see what happens.

Amanda Marcotte says Fuckface is giving up the advantage of surprise by announcing his coup plans in advance, but Joshua Holland suggests the election is already in the process of being stolen--if people assume that's what he's going to do, they are less likely to vote.

[Dear Leader] is banking on Democrats coming to believe that their votes won’t count, becoming demoralized and not putting in the effort to jump through the necessary hoops to participate.

Update (September 25):  Dan Froomkin notes that some of the mainstream press is finally taking notice of Dear Leader's threat to democracy. There's also a memo circulating on options for Democrats to delay the confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice. Heather Digby Parton emphasizes that Republicans only care about raw power.

They are craven opportunists who have observed the way [Fuckface] has exposed the weaknesses in our system and showed them how liberating the simple act of blatant shamelessness can be. They see how easily power can be seized, and that if the opponent doesn't have a countervailing institutional strength, there is nothing to stop them from keeping it.

Republicans know they could afford to wait until after the election is decided — in fact, under the normal terms of political self-interest, that would probably be smarter. But they are ready and willing to install a new Supreme Court justice before the election for the express purpose of handing [Agent Orange] a second term. If they succeed in doing so, they will irreparably destroy the legitimacy of the court, and quite possibly the legitimacy of our democratic system altogether.

Yet Sophia Tesfaye doesn't see much hope in Democrats actually doing anything about it.

Republicans lie, cheat and steal. Democrats pretend to "resist" with weak appeals to the nonexistent conscience of Republicans who long ago sold their supposed principles down the river.

Whether they boycott hearings, bring impeachment articles against Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, or use Senate rules to slow down normal business, Democrats have more than a few arrows in their quiver. But despite Pelosi's brave words, Democrats' actions this week suggest they have no real intention to pull them out to save our democracy.

Update (October 1):  Amanda Marcotte lists five ways to prevent a stolen election.

1. Don't panic.

2. Vote! Early and in person, if possible.

3. Volunteer to get out the vote — and consider focusing your efforts on Florida.

4. Volunteer to be an election protector.

5. Prepare yourself now for the post-election fight for all votes to be counted.

Update (October 28):  The Supreme Court is already dropping hints about limiting the count of mail-in ballots. From Justice Kavanaugh:

States want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of impropriety that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election.

So maybe partial results shouldn't be publicized because the actual results aren't known until all the legitamate votes are counted. 

Update (October 29):  Fuckface literally wants courts to stop the states from counting ballots after election day. And several justices are ready to comply. Rick Hasen is somewhat hopeful though.

It is unlikely the Supreme Court will decide the 2020 elections because it would have to be so close in a state pivotal to the Electoral College that litigating could make a difference. That's what happened in 2000 and it could happen again, but odds are against it. If cases do get to the court, we have seen the court divide along ideological and party lines in some key election cases. I hope that would not be the case in 2020.

Update (November 2):  Because he's such a fucking asshole, Dear Leader needs to continue to keep us on edge--Heather Digby Parton outlines all the ways Republicans might screw with the election.

None of this may come to pass, or at least not in a way that changes the outcome of the election. A lot of what Team [Orange] is doing can be seen as hype to get their voters out and work the refs, meaning the media, state officials and the federal judiciary. Whether [Fuckface] is able to seriously contest the election results will remain unclear until we see how the votes come in, but there's every indication that when he told some of his extremist fans to "stand by," they heard him loud and clear.

Let's hope that the results are decisive and that [Manbaby] is persuaded to behave like a mature, responsible leader for once. It would be a welcome irony if the night he loses the election is the night he finally does become a president.

Update (November 4):  As of this morning, six states are undecided and still counting millions of votes. As expected, Fuckface declared victory overnight. Heather Digby Parton:

It's simply impossible to understand how 45% of our fellow Americans could actually admire and respect someone who would do such an inexplicably un-American thing. How could they possibly want such a person to lead this country? That's the question that will haunt all of us for a very long time.