To Spite the Face

In line with the same thinking that seeks to cut SNAP, Congress failed to extend unemployment benefits to 1.3 million people experiencing long-term unemployment.  While some politicians claim the benefits are a disservice, those kinds of cuts end up hurting the economy as a whole. By next December, nearly 5 million people may be denied benefits.

Update (February 27, 2016):  On April 1, twenty-two states will reimpose rules that limit SNAP benefits for adults with no dependents or disabilities unless they meet work or education requirements.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that 500,000 to one million people will lose access to food stamps this year, citing the experience in states where work requirements already returned.

Peak Oil

While the topic rarely shows up in the news, a theme issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society addresses The Future of Oil.  According to one of the co-editors, Richard G. Miller, a retired analyst with BP,

We are probably in peak oil today, or at least in the foot-hills. Production could rise a little for a few years yet, but not sufficiently to bring the price down; alternatively, continuous recession in much of the world may keep demand essentially flat for years at the $110/bbl price we have today. But we can't grow the supply at average past rates of about 1.5% per year at today's prices.

One of the studies in the theme issue by David Murphy of Northern Illinois University estimates the global EROEI for oil and gas production at 15.

... the minimum oil price needed to increase the oil supply in the near term is at levels consistent with levels that have induced past economic recessions. From these points, I conclude that, as the EROI of the average barrel of oil declines, long-term economic growth will become harder to achieve and come at an increasingly higher financial, energetic and environmental cost.

Update (January 20, 2014):  Nafeez Ahmed reports on the Transatlantic Energy Security Dialogue.  One troubling fact:  Despite a 200 to 300 percent increase of investment by the oil industry since 2000, oil supplies increase by only 12 percent.  It's a classic case of diminishing returns.

Update (January 25, 2014):  Fracking won't prevent peak oil.

Update (March 16, 2014):  Oil companies are being squeezed by the rising cost of oil production.

Update (March 28, 2014):  Matt Mushalik argues that the boom in U.S. shale oil production masks a plateau in world crude oil production going back to 2005.

Update (August 15, 2014):  Gail Tverberg explains twelve principles of "reaching limits in a finite world".

Update (September 9, 2014):  Richard Heinberg issues a reminder that peak oil is part of a constellation of problems related to unlimited growth.

Update (July 7, 2015):  Reflections on the end of oil.

Update (August 19, 2016);  Nafeez Ahmed explains that peak oil means increasing reliance on "crappy oil" during the transition to renewable energy--oil that is dirtier and more expensive to produce.

[I]f more and more energy is invested simply in the process of producing fossil fuel energy, then that higher energy input entails higher greenhouse gas emissions: an increased carbon footprint.

The shift to unconventional fossil fuels is therefore putting us on a collision course with the climate, which will “increase global greenhouse gas emissions even more than anticipated and counteract other decarbonisation endeavours.”

In the long-term, that means we’re increasing the risk of dangerous global warming. In the short-term, there’s a tangible impact right now: the economy. The more we rely on more expensive and lower quality energy to keep the economy moving, the slower the economy moves.

Update (July 2, 2017):  Sally Dugman offers a reminder that peak oil still matters.

[W]e collectively have to stop our delusions about perpetual economic growth and find another way to live from this point forward. We need to stop pretending that all is well because our myopic view of life shows no oil or other major shortfalls in the very near future.

Update (October 8, 2017):  Nafeez Ahmed analyzes China's impending peak in oil production.

China’s rapidly rising dependence on fossil fuel imports further suggests that after 2018, world oil markets will be increasingly strained by the country’s escalating demand. This could well be another potential major driver of a global oil squeeze in or after 2018, in a way that most mainstream forecasts have overlooked.

Update (November 20, 2018):  Ugo Bardi argues that the concept of peak oil is still useful despite decreased interest in recent years.

Update (July 24, 2019):  If true, these hidden little nuggets make renewable energy even more urgent: Saudi Arabia recently announced their largest oil field produces about three-fourths of what everyone thought, and the fracking industry has lost $280 billion dollars over the past 12 years.

Update (September 4, 2020):  Although U.S. oil production orginally peaked in the 1970's, fracking techology made the country the world's largest producer. But Antonia Juhasz reports the pandemic has hit the industry hard.

[O]il analysts Casey Merriman and Abhi Rajendran of Energy Intelligence expect a good deal of the US oil production cuts to be permanent. They predict that the country has reached peak oil production and will never return to the record 13 million barrels of oil per day reached in November 2019.

The pandemic has made painfully clear that there are two ways the age of oil might end. There’s the status quo path, in which we are so overcome by the disasters brought about by our oil reliance—calamities in the forms of war, political upheaval, and the climate catastrophes of worsening drought, floods, hurricanes, fires, and disease—that we are unable to consume oil. And there is a more intentional, thoughtful path, one that embraces justice, equity, and sustainability. If we take that route, the "end of oil" will be a commitment to live in peace with one another and the planet.

Hunger and Homelessness Survey

In a survey of 25 cities, The United States Conference of Mayors reports an average increase in emergency food requests of 7 percent and an overall increase in people experiencing homelessness of 3 percent.  An estimated 47 million Americans live below the US standard for poverty.  Meanwhile, corporate subsidies amount to $90 billion per year while individuals on welfare cost a total of $59 billion per year.

A broken government and lackluster economic recovery probably have a lot to do with increasing hunger and homelessness in the United States.  But worldwide, extreme poverty has been reduced. The proportion of people living on less than $1.25 per day went from 43 percent to 22 percent during the period from 1990 to 2008.  Even a broader definition called the Multidimensional Poverty Index showed improvement in 18 of 22 countries.  Less extreme poverty doesn't necessarily imply a smaller gap between rich and poor.

Of course, the big question for future reductions in poverty will be how governments choose to respond (or not respond) to increasing inequality and climate change.

Update (January 2, 2016):  Even in a recovering economy, the need for help increases.

Voter Suppression

Research by Keith Bentele and Erin O'Brien at the University of Massachusetts shows that voter restrictions were more likely to be proposed in states where greater numbers of minorities and lower income people voted.  Restrictions were more likely to be passed when Republicans controlled the state government.

Update (April 23, 2014):  The Republican election strategy starts with disenfranchisement.

Update (July 31, 2016):  Court rulings have overturned some voting restrictions. The law in North Carolina was especially harsh. From the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit:

[I]n what comes as close to a smoking gun as we are likely to see in modern times, the State’s very justification for a challenged statute hinges explicitly on race — specifically its concern that African Americans, who had overwhelmingly voted for Democrats, had too much access to the franchise.

Faced with this record, we can only conclude that the North Carolina General Assembly enacted the challenged provisions of the law with discriminatory intent.

Worst Case

While the IPCC reports are, of necessity, based on consensus, Dahr Jamail investigates the views of some climate scientists who see the possibility of rapid, catastrophic changes.  For example, the "Great Dying" extinction event of 250 million years ago was related to the release of methane.  Ninety-five percent of species were killed.  And with temperatures rising fastest in the polar regions, a 50 gigaton "burp" of methane from melting permafrost is possible.  That would be equivalent to at least 1000 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions (compared to 240 gigatons total emissions since the industrial revolution began).  It's hard to see how civilization could withstand that sort of disaster.

These views get derided as alarmist, yet our political institutions have yet to heed any warning.

Update (December 19):  Nafeez Ahmed reviews research that claims climate change impacts may be underestimated.

Update (December 26):  Bruce Melton offers a review of current climate science and calls for "sky mining" as a solution since emissions reductions are inadequate to prevent dangerous climate change.

Update (December 29):  Climate change by the numbers.

Update (February 14, 2014):  Answering the deniers.

Update (March 8, 2014):  Lindsay Abrams offers five theories for the motives of climate change deniers.

Newtown

Today is the one year anniversary of that horrible day.  It is fitting to hold the families in our thoughts. It is also fitting to note the on-going tragedy of gun violence in the United States and the failure of our political system to do anything about it.

There is evidence to suggest that fearful people tend to be more conservative.  And the conservative belief that human nature is fundamentally competitive would seem to reinforce the fear of a dangerous world.  I could see how the acquisition of guns would assuage that fear, even though, for me, the idea of people around me having guns adds to my own fear.

Isn't it just logical to think that fewer weapons would avoid at least some the violence that happens everyday?  And yet gun control isn't going to happen because fear overrides compassion.

Update (December 31):  The Boston Globe editorializes about mass killings this past year.

Update (June 20, 2014):  A study from the Violence Policy Center ranks states by gun death rate and finds that

states with the lowest overall gun death rates have lower rates of gun ownership and some of the strongest gun violence prevention laws in the nation.

Update (July 29, 2014):  Differences in threat bias explain a large part of the variation in political ideology according to a study from lead author John Hibbing of the University of Nebraska.  John Stuart Mill referred to a party of stability and a party of progress as common in political systems.

Update (February 15, 2022):  In a settlement with nine families of Sandy Hook Elementary School victims, Remington Arms will pay $73 million. It's the first time a gun manufacturer has been held liable for a mass shooting.

Getting Ahead

A bachelor's degree still pays, but not as much as it used to.

Young women managed to hold steady, but still don't earn as much in real terms as male high school graduates forty years ago.

And yet, somewhat contrasting research suggests that twenty percent of Americans will experience a household income of $100,000 or more for at least a year during their lifetime.

So it may be largely a function of age--a certain number of people will be in a profession that eventually leads to that higher income.

2 Degree Disaster

A paper by James Hansen et al concludes that 2 degrees Celsius of warming would spur an eventual warming of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius with "disastrous consequences".

Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects.

Update (December 17):  NASA reports that the mean global temperature for November was the highest ever recorded for that month since records began in 1880.  The November mean was 0.78 degrees Celsius above the base mean.  It was the 345th consecutive month with a mean temperature above the long-term average.

Update (December 31):  A study published in Nature suggests that cloud formation would decrease with higher temperatures which in turn would enhance the warming.  A minimum warming of 4 degrees Celsius is expected by 2100.

Update (April 4, 2015):  Petra Tschakert with the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Pennsylvania State University argues that the 2 degrees Celsius limit on warming is inadequate.

A low temperature target is the best bet to prevent severe, pervasive and potentially irreversible impacts, while allowing ecosystems to adapt naturally, ensuring food production and security, and enabling economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Inequality by Choice

A report at the Economic Policy Institute by Lawrence Mishel, Heidi Shierholz, and John Schmitt disputes the "skill-based technological change" (SBTC) model for growing wage inequality. Rather, policy decisions regarding issues such as minimum wage, unionization, and globalization have greater effect.  Other wealthy countries have institutions in place to lower inequality (note the horizontal axis doesn't start from zero):

Update (December 1):  Combating inequality takes an economic-rights movement.  Michael Lind argues that economic-rights progressivism versus libertarian conservatism is the central political battle of our time.

The mainstream right’s economic vision is libertarian, pure and simple: smaller government, lower taxes, free trade and deregulation. Add to this the goal of replacing universal, tax-financed social insurance programs such as Social Security and Medicare with means-tested vouchers to subsidize for-profit providers of retirement savings and medical insurance and medicine, and you have pretty much the whole right-wing economic program.

Only direct legislation can serve as a remedy to the evils of low wages and inadequate benefits. Through the government, America’s citizenry must insist that all businesses in the U.S. pay a living wage. And employer benefits should be gradually phased out and replaced by universal, generous social insurance — not only universal health care and an expanded Social Security system, but also a new federal system of family leave, paid for by payroll taxes.

Update (December 4):  In a speech sponsored by the Center for American Progress, President Obama called growing income inequality a "defining challenge of our time".

Update (December 10):  Growing inequality has made the United States a country "rich in name only".

Update (December 15):  Addressing inequality means more than just creating equality of opportunity at the expense of looking at equality of outcome.  As Sean McElwee demonstrates, outcome determines opportunity for the next generation.

Update (January 25, 2014):  Sean McElwee argues that a focus on upward mobility is not a substitute for addressing the immorality of inequality.

Update (January 29, 2014):  An interview with John Schmitt.

Update (January 30, 2014):  Eleven problems with inequality.

Update (March 16, 2014):  Thomas Frank writes about President Obama's pivot from "inequality" to "opportunity" and how Obama failed to bring meritocracy to Washington, DC.

A New Tyranny

As a new poll shows that an "unprecedented" number of Americans worry about losing their job, Pope Francis released an apostolic exhortation which, in part, addresses concerns about poverty and growing economic inequality.

As long as the problems of the poor are not radically resolved by rejecting the absolute autonomy of markets and financial speculation and by attacking the structural causes of inequality, no solution will be found for the world's problems or, for that matter, to any problems.  Inequality is the root of social ills.

Update (November 29):  Eugene Robinson reflects on the Pope's message.

Update (May 9, 2014):  Pope Francis calls for the redistribution of wealth to the poor.

Update (June 14, 2014):  In an interview, Pope Francis expresses concern about high youth unemployment and an economic system based on "the idolatry of money".

[W]e are discarding an entire generation to maintain an economic system that can’t hold up anymore, a system that to survive must make war, as the great empires have always done.

For an Eco-Socialist Future

Richard Smith of the Institute for Policy Research & Development gets straight to the point:

Capitalism is, overwhelmingly, the main driver of planetary ecological collapse.

It has become necessary to stop doing what we are doing (the over-consumption of everything), and yet any aspect of reform is essentially incompatible with capitalist motivations.  Smith argues there is no technical solution or market solution to prevent collapse.  Using "green" energy to promote more growth is not a solution.  Carbon taxes won't put a cap on emissions.  Energy companies are not going to voluntarily leave fossil fuels in the ground.  Ignoring the economic implications means we are deluding ourselves.

The solution requires greater democracy and basic economic equality.  Smith claims that by consuming less, everyone's basic necessities could be met, and that our lives would be richer without wasteful production and mindless shopping.

The question is:  will humanity stand by and let the world be destroyed to save the profit system?

Update (November 22):  Richard Heinberg takes on Paul Krugman regarding the end of growth.

Update (November 27):  A quote from Fawzi Ibrahim's book Capitalism versus Planet Earth, being used to promote Buy Nothing Day:

A stark choice faces humanity:  save the planet and ditch capitalism or save capitalism and ditch the planet.

Update (December 1):  Climate scientists Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows-Larkin call for a rethinking of the economic order in an interview with Amy Goodman.  Anderson says that avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of warming requires a "revolutionary change to the political and economic hegemony".

Update (December 22):  David Suzuki explains why endless exponential growth is impossible.

Update (September 9, 2014):  Joe Todd laments the culture of consumption.

Update (June 26, 2018):  It is embarrassing that I'm just now made aware of An Ecosocialist Manifesto.

Ecosocialism will be international, and universal, or it will be nothing.

Update (July 14, 2019):  Rob Urie:

Given the trajectory of environmental decline, Western political economy will either be used to ring-fence rich from poor to leave the poor to their own devices, problems will be deemed unsolvable and decline will take its course, or capitalism will be overthrown and replaced with something workable.

Update (July 17, 2019):  Manuel Garcia asks, "do we work dutifully to the death, or till cast adrift as expendable, and do we willingly follow the leader to perdition if he is hellbound and determined for it; or do we rebel, overturn the structure of command, and lead ourselves even if such freedom entails a hard life?"

Remember that the biggest threat to humanity’s survival is anti-social human behavior; climate change alone can’t kill us.

Many will say that obviously climate change as competitive war game is the only realistic alternative because it requires no behavioral changes from our over 10,000 years of "civilized" human history, and because eco-socialism is pure utopianism and thus beyond all realistic actualization. And of course, eco-socialism is impossible in a world of Ahabs and fanatical Ahab followers. But all that is just an excuse to continue with bad behavior. There are no actual physical or biological constraints preventing people from choosing to associate in an eco-socialist manner. The current societal improbability for deeply cooperative behavior does not make future species-wide collective cooperation an impossibility. Responding to climate change could provide a framework on which to build such a species-wide socialist civilization.

Elusive Opportunity

The Emissions Gap Report 2013 from the United Nations Environment Programme estimates that the effort to limit carbon dioxide emissions will fall 8 to 12 billion tons short of a goal set in 2010. The "window of opportunity" to prevent a 2 degree Celsius rise in global temperature is closing.

Update (November 6):  The World Meteorological Organization reports that the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration averaged 393.1 ppm in 2012, a new record.  The increase from 2011 to 2012 was higher than the average increase over the previous ten years.

Update (November 15):  At the Warsaw climate talks, Japan announced a revised goal for reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 2020:  from 25 percent to 3.8 percent of 2005 levels due to the shutdown of their nuclear plants.

Update (November 25):  A study has found that US methane emissions have been underestimated. The revised estimate of 49 million tons for 2008 is 1.5 to 1.7 times as much as previous estimates.

Update (December 22, 2015):  A study says cold-season methane emissions from permafrost have been underestimated. Also, soil erosion in general increases carbon emissions.

Mean Income Up, Median Stagnant

From the Social Security Administration Wage Statistics for 2012, David Cay Johnston reports that only workers in the top half of compensation are experiencing any gains.  While the mean wage was $42,498, the median was $27,519.  Two-thirds of employees have incomes below the mean.

Big Ed

Christian Exoo and Calvin Exoo propose that the crisis in higher education is not access, but rather retention. And, while schemes like Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) seem to make college level classes available to thousands of students who couldn't otherwise attend well-known colleges, the completion rates of MOOCs are spectacularly bad.  In addition, the sorts of at-risk students MOOCs might wish to serve are exactly the sorts of students most ill prepared to benefit from online classes.  The kinds of support found in physical schools just isn't available in MOOCs. Privatization is not the answer to everything.

Update (November 15):  A study by Toby J. Park at Florida State University of 38,000 community college students shows that 94 percent leave school at least once and, of that group, 57 percent do re-enroll.  But leaving more than once makes it very unlikely to finish a bachelor's degree.  76 percent of degree holders only left school once.  Only 16 percent in this study finished a bachelor's degree within six years, although some were still enrolled and others only seek two year degrees.

Update (November 19):  The profit motive means sliding back toward "separate and unequal".

Update (December 3):  A survey of MOOC users show that most are already privileged and well educated.

Update (December 5):  There's money to be made in charter schools.

Update (January 11, 2014):  Susan Douglas argues that the Right has an interest in devaluing higher education.  Rising tuition in response to budget cuts can restrict access and causes some people to question whether a college education is worthwhile.

Update (June 25, 2014):  The Detroit Free Press has a special report on charter schools.

Update (July 14, 2014):  David Dayen reports on the formation of Democrats for Public Education to combat "market-driven" educational reform.

Update (July 16, 2014):  Tenure for teachers is under attack.  Gabriel Arana explains that tenure is about due process (just like physicians have a process before losing their license or lawyers have a process before being disbarred).  Teaching quality matters, but only accounts for about 10 to 20 percent of student achievement.

Update (July 25, 2014):  Andrew Leonard takes a critical look at technology and classrooms pointing out that "there's a crucial difference between 'access to information' and 'education'".

Update (September 21, 2014):  Around three-fourths of college instructors are part-time, but they are being taken advantage of with pay that scarcely amounts to minimum wage.

Update (October 13, 2014):  Cabell Gathman examines online diploma mills.  Also, Noam Chomsky's views on how corporate models are hurting education.

Update (May 2, 2015):  The fight for living wages includes adjunct college instructors.

Update (September 28, 2017):  Part-time instructors continue to struggle to make a living.

Update (March 26, 2018):  In a book excerpt, Allen Marshall argues that schools have lost their purpose and college isn't for everyone.

Whether at the secondary or postsecondary levels, the true purpose of the American education system seems to be to make sure children are unprepared for the adult world—and to charge them huge sums for the privilege.

Update (June 2, 2018):  Debra Leigh Scott offers the five steps used to destroy higher education. And I like this quote from H.G. Wells:

History is becoming more and more a race between education and catastrophe.

Arctic Warming

A study from the University of Colorado finds that the Canadian Arctic has reached the highest average summer temperatures in at least 44,000 years.

Update (October 28):  Global Post is starting a series on the impacts of climate change called Calamity Calling.

Party of Selfishness and Greed

Charles Simic tears into the "soulless bastards" of those like the Koch brothers and the Republican Party.

[T]he backers of the government shut-down . . . spent more than $200 million last year to spread disinformation and delude the gullible among the populace about the supposedly catastrophic harm giving health care to the uninsured would do to the economy.

Indifference to the plight and suffering of human beings of one class or another by some segment of the population is a universal phenomenon, but spending millions of dollars to deepen the misery of one's fellow citizens and enlisting members of one political party to help you do so is downright vile. 

Update (October 20):  While the Democrats held firm against being blackmailed over the debt limit and President Obama struck back against the Reagan theme that "government is the problem", nothing has been done about the sequester and the crisis is likely to resume in just a few months.  Martin Wolf says the Democrats have really conceded the argument:

It's strange to me that a government that has obviously achieved very important things . . . should be now regarded as nothing more than a complete nuisance. . . [S]o in a way . . . the extreme conservative position has won . . . it's only a question of how much you cut . . . rather than, well, what do we want government for? . . . How do we make it effective?  And how do we ensure that it is properly financed?

Update (October 28):  E.J. Dionne reiterates the thought that national politics has been focused on the wrong problem.

Decline and Fall

Chris Hedges bemoans a state of mind "where fantasy is more real than reality".  In the end, all empires are unsustainable.  But this time collapse threatens all of civilization.

It is more pleasant, I admit, to stand mesmerized in front of our electronic hallucinations.  It is easier to check out intellectually.  It is more gratifying to imbibe the hedonism and sickness of the worship of the self and money.  It is more comforting to chatter about celebrity gossip and ignore or dismiss what is reality.

Update (December 14):  In an overview of recent events, Patrick Smith notes that the role of the United States is changing.   Diplomacy is not just for small nations anymore.

Health Insurance Failure

Because health insurance is such a dire threat to the Republic, the Republican controlled House of Representatives was compelled to shut down the Federal government last Tuesday.  But the real disgrace stems from the Supreme Court ruling that allowed states to opt out of the Medicaid expansion.  In 26 Republican controlled states the expansion was declined.  As a result, eight million people fall in the crack between lack of Medicaid and no ACA provision for subsidized insurance.  The New York Times editorializes about their own report:

It is outrageous that millions of the poorest people in the country will be denied health insurance because of decisions made mostly by Republican governors and legislators.

Update (October 13):  The Times with a follow up editorial about how the childless poor fall through the gaps in the safety net.

Update (November 1):  Paul Krugman marvels that those Republican controlled states are willing to pay a large price simply to maintain their "war on the poor".

Update (November 17):  The Washington Post editorializes against the "misguided opposition" of Republicans to Medicaid expansion.

False Promise

Richard Heinberg's Snake Oil takes on the boom in fracking for oil and gas and makes the case that it is not sustainable.  He includes a history of fracking technology and examines the production data. Heinberg explains the concept of a resource pyramid and the significance of "energy returned on energy invested" (EROEI).  He gives a long response to an article in The Atlantic on the prospects for methane hydrates as a new source of hydrocarbons to be developed.  It's a question of technology versus geology.

James Howard Kunstler relates a story about giving a talk on energy at Google headquarters.  In the end, there were no questions, only statements to the effect of (as Kunstler puts it), "Dude, we've got technology." Kunstler bemoans the fact that even well educated people confuse energy and technology.  There's a deep-seated belief that the right technological fix will save us.  It shows up with the increasing interest in geoengineering to solve global warming.

Ultimately, chasing after every last bit of hydrocarbon diminishes our ability to fund the necessary transition away from that dependence on fossil fuels.  EROEI is declining which means the energy sector draws away investment and human resources from other parts of the economy. Heinberg boils down the complexity of our energy-economy-climate situation to two equally true statements:

Hydrocarbons are so abundant that, if we burn a substantial portion of them, we risk a climate catastrophe beyond imagining.

There aren't enough economically accessible, high-quality hydrocarbons to maintain world economic growth for much longer.

Update (October 5):  A report by Environment America, Fracking by the Numbers, details the overall environmental impact of the drilling.

Update (April 11, 2014):  A study in Ohio links fracking to earthquakes.

Update (June 8, 2014):  Four ways in which fracking is bad news.

Update (August 2, 2014):  Michelle Bamberger and Robert Oswald discuss their book, The Real Cost of Fracking: How America's Gas Shale Boom Is Threatening Our Families, Pets, and Food.

Update (February 14, 2015):  A report from the National Academies of Science examines geoengineering technologies in two broad categories--carbon dioxide removal and albedo modification.  The latter is easier to do, but could also make things worse.

Ten Ways Young Adults Have It Worse

Alex Henderson offers ten reasons why the Millennial generation is worse off than older adults (I am a Baby Boomer).

1. A dying middle class

2. The financial crash of September 2008

3. Crushing student loan debt

4. The broken healthcare system

5. The post-9/11 surveillance state

6. Endless war

7. Painfully low interest rates

8. Bailouts and the federal deficit

9. The George W. Bush administration

10. Unlikely homeownership

Update (September 20):  Edward McClelland reviews the demise of the middle class in the United States.

Update (December 2):  Tim Donovan bemoans the indifference toward climate change and notes that the younger generation who will bear the brunt of the coming disaster has little political influence or economic means to do anything about it.

Update (January 20, 2014):  Without comment.  "Employees Face Growing Pressure to Relax".

Update (March 31, 2014):  Households headed by someone 40 years old or younger remain 30 percent below the real level of wealth in 2007 while households of older people have recovered.

Update (April 13, 2014):  A New York Times editorial asks "Recovery for Whom?"  It points out that the age cohort of 25 to 34 is worse off than previous generations and will feel the impact of the Great Recession throughout their lives.

Update (March 1, 2019):  Young adults face a dismal economic future.

According to the New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel, debt for Americans between the ages of 19 and 29 exceeded $1 trillion at the end of 2018, the highest that number has been since late 2007.

Highest Share for Top One Percent

IRS data shows that the top one percent of US earners collected 19.3 percent of household income in 2012. This exceeds the previous high of 18.7 percent in 1927.  Also, the top ten percent received more than 50 percent of total income.

Update (September 13):  The percentages for income excluding capital gains are slightly different.

Global Cooling?

This article in The Telegraph seemed to get a lot of attention.  Only two sources are named.  Sea ice extent has rebounded from last year's record low in the Arctic.  But ice extent is comparable to 2009 and remains far below the average for 1981 to 2010.  "Global cooling" conclusions are not justified.

Update (September 14):  Arctic sea ice volume reached a new low for winter earlier this year.

Update (September 22):  Five reasons why sea ice decline should be front page news.

Update (December 16):  Arctic sea ice volume at the end of summer 2013 was fifty percent higher than one year previous.  But this minimum volume is still far below typical values from 30 years ago.

Update (September 21, 2014):  Arctic sea ice minimum is about the same this year as last year. But the trend is clear and Cambridge University professor of ocean physics Peter Wadhams says, "The Arctic ice cap is in a death spiral."

Politics Over Reason

One would hope that even in a contentious political argument, facts would be persuasive.  But a study by Dan Kahan, Ellen Peters, Erica Cantrell Dawson, and Paul Slovic demonstrates how political views can impede mathematical reasoning.

The researchers asked participants to interpret the results of a fake study.  The numbers were misleading--a calculation was needed to get the correct answer.  Each participant was presented with one of four scenarios--two about politically neutral skin cream and two about politically charged gun control.

Some people were determined to be more numerate than others and everyone performed about the same on the skin cream questions.  But when it came to gun control, conservatives were likely to misinterpret when the scenario depicted a decrease in crime and liberals would misinterpret when an increase in crime was depicted.  In fact, the differences between correct and incorrect interpretation increases for those who are better at math.  These are people who could easily understand the problem--unless the results go against their political views.

Unfortunately, this seems to show that having more information or better reasoning ability isn't enough.  We'll continue to see what we want to see.

Update (March 1, 2014):  Research by Emily Pronin and Katherine Hansen at Princeton University demonstrates that people maintain the belief in their own objectivity even when they know the process they are using is biased.  We have a blind spot when it comes to recognizing our own biases.

Update (June 28, 2014):  In a paper called "Climate Science Communication and the Measurement Problem", Dan Kahan demonstrates that the phrasing of science questions can avoid challenging one's personal beliefs.

It goes on to show that conservatives aren't ignorant about the science of climate change, they just don't choose to believe it.

Can the Bombing of Syria Be Stopped?

Whip counts show movement toward defeat in the House of Representatives, and a few individual members report overwhelming opposition to intervention from constituents.  And so Patrick Smith makes the interesting point that the manufacturing of consent is no longer possible--instead we may see the manufacturing of the appearance of consent.  Will it be possible for Congress to do the right thing?

Update (September 8):  White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough admits that the US doesn't have concrete evidence that Syrian President Assad ordered the chemical attacks of August 21.  German newspaper Bild am Sonntag cites German intelligence that the Syrian military acted without Assad's order.

Update (September 9):  Russia proposes to put Syria's chemical weapons under international control. Apparently this stemmed from a comment from Secretary of State Kerry, who dismissed the possibility Syria would agree.  A vote in the Senate about a US strike on Syria has been postponed.

Update (September 10):  Syria is reported to be committed to the Russian proposal.

Update (September 13):  Syria has signed the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Update (September 14):  The United States and Russia have reached an agreement over Syria's chemical weapons.  It is characterized as very difficult, but doable.  The use of force at a later time is not ruled out.

Update (September 27):  The UN Security Council reached agreement on a resolution to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons.

5 Minutes to Midnight

Seemingly borrowing the phrase from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Rajendra Pachuari, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is emphasizing that time is running out to take action.

We may utilize the gifts of nature just as we choose, but in our books the debits are always equal to the credits.  May I submit that humanity has completely ignored, disregarded and been totally indifferent to the debits?

And as a side note, William R. Polk's analysis of the crisis in Syria includes the under-reported aspect of drought.  Collapsing agriculture lead to poverty and competition for resources.  The situation was poorly handled and helped spark the civil war.  It may not be directly linked to climate change, but that sort of devastation becomes more likely as temperatures continue to rise.

Update (September 21):  James Hansen, et al in the Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society conclude that "humanity stands at a fork in the road".  If all available fossil fuels were burned, the world be made uninhabitable by humans.  Adaptation is not a long-term strategy.

Update (November 1):  President Obama has issued an executive order directing federal agencies to make plans for handling the impacts of climate change.

Update (November 12):  A leaked version of an upcoming IPCC report describes the social disruption expected from climate change.

Update (November 22):  The state of the science for climate change:



Update (December 3):  A report from the National Academy of Sciences evaluates the potential for abrupt effects of climate change.

Update (December 7):  More on the NAS report:

"The planet is going to be warmer than most species living on Earth today have seen it, including humans," added Tony Barnosky, a professor in the Department of Integrative Biology at the University of California, Berkeley. "The pace of change is orders of magnitude higher than what species have experienced in the last tens of millions of years."

From the summary:

Update (March 2, 2015):  More about how drought contributed to the conflict in Syria.

Acidic Oceans

Oceans adsorb a lot of carbon dioxide.  This may have slowed down the increase in global mean temperature, but it also means that the acidity of oceans is increasing at the highest rate in 300 million years.

Update (September 22):  The Seattle Times reports on the impact of ocean acidification.

Update (October 4):  A follow up post about The State of the Ocean Report 2013.

Update (October 6):  More about the report from the International Programme on the State of the Ocean.

Update (October 16):  A study published in PLOS Biology looks at the impact of climate change on the world's ocean.

Update (October 31):  A study lead by Yair Rosenthal of Rutgers University shows that the world's ocean is now absorbing heat 15 times as fast as it had been over the previous 10,000 years.  That absorption has been a buffer against the effects of climate change for the past 60 years.

Update (July 2, 2014):  Concern about "missing" plastic, and a Newsweek report about the damage being done to the oceans.

Update (April 12, 2015):  According to a study from the University of Edinburgh, rates of acidification in the oceans are similar to those of 250 million years ago that prompted the greatest extinction event in earth's history.

Update (August 9, 2015):  A study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany concludes that ocean acidification could take centuries to reverse.

Update (November 12, 2018):  Garbage patches only account for a small fraction of the plastic entering the ocean.

Climate Change Affects East Antarctica

Research published in Nature uses declassified satellite photography over a period of 50 years to conclude that the world's largest ice sheet in East Antarctica may be more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought.

Zero Wage Growth

A report from the Economic Policy Institute shows that real hourly wages have not increased for the typical worker for more than a decade.  This is despite a 27 percent growth in productivity since 2000.

5 Degrees Celsius

A leaked draft of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mainly reflects even greater confidence that human activities are responsible for most of the warming since the 1950s.  If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, the world is on track for 5 degrees Celsius of warming by sometime around the end of the century.

Update (August 19):  It's interesting to note that while the upcoming AR5 makes an effort to explain why land surface temperatures have been steady for the past ten years, research not included in the assessment demonstrates that warming in the oceans has accelerated over the past 15 years.  90 percent of overall warming of the planet goes into heating the oceans.

Update (September 23):  As the IPCC gets closer to publishing AR5, the climate change deniers are coming out in force.

Update (September 27):  The Summary for Policymakers is now available with more to come.

Update (January 16, 2014):  Further leaks of the IPCC report suggest that, in the worst case, the cost of preventing climate change could exceed the cost of adapting to it.

Wrecked World

A speech by Noam Chomsky takes a long look at "really existing capitalist democracy" (RECD). It's a system that pays lip service to genuine democracy but in fact the vast majority have no influence on policy. This shows up in polls where public opinion diverges from policies that benefit the elite.

Chomsky sees grim prospects for the future under RECD.  He highlights the environment and the possibility of nuclear war.  There's a skewed rationality that seeks to exploit every last source of fossil fuel.  He happens to mention Ecuador as a place that sought to stop that exploitation, but which now seems to have changed course.

Chomsky also makes clear the role of the press in keeping us in the dark.  For example, Iran's nuclear program is constantly touted as a threat, but there's no mention of a cancelled international conference that would have addressed efforts to create a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East.  The conference was cancelled by the Obama Administration after Iran agreed to attend.

And yet, Chomsky ends optimistically:

The general picture is pretty grim, I think. But there are shafts of light. As always through history, there are two trajectories. One leads towards oppression and destruction. The other leads towards freedom and justice. And as always - to adapt Martin Luther King's famous phrase - there are ways to bend the arc of the moral universe towards justice and freedom - and by now even towards survival.

Water for Oil

Drought (enhanced by climate change), decades of overuse, and now fracking are leading to a water crisis in places like Texas where 30 towns may run out of water by the end of this year.

Update (February 5, 2014):  More about the water problems related to fracking.

The Speed of Climate Change

A report from Stanford University says the rate of change for global temperatures is now larger than at any time in the past 65 million years.  Previous warming periods amounted to a change of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius over 20,000 years.  If the earth experiences that kind of warming by the end of this century, it will be at a rate that's about 100 times as fast.  Another way to visualize this change is to picture an ecosystem needing to move a yard per day to maintain similar conditions.  Many species would not be able to adapt to such rapid change.

Update (August 7):  State of the Climate 2012 from NOAA.

Update (August 10):  Michael T. Klare says the energy industry is not making any significant investment into renewable sources--the effort is going into developing unconventional oil and gas reserves.