Wednesday, January 27, 2016

End of a Movement?

Heather Digby Parton blows up a myth.
[T]he conservative movement is ... under pressure. They thought their years of carefully growing and indoctrinating the right wing of the Republican Party had resulted in a common belief in a certain conservative ideology, strategic vision and commitment to a specific agenda. It turns out that a good number of the people they thought had signed on to their program just wanted someone to stick it to ethnic and racial minorities and make sure America is the biggest bad ass on the planet — authoritarian, white nationalism. If you’ve got a man who will deliver that you don’t need ideology. And he doesn’t need democracy.
The mystery is why all these smart conservatives didn’t see this coming. They unleashed this beast a long time ago with the hate radio and the media propaganda and the ruthless politics. It was only a matter of time before it turned on them.
Update (February 21):  I think the Republican nomination was decided yesterday in South Carolina. Parton explains why.
It turns out that a good many members in good standing of the conservative movement don’t care at all about conservative ideology and never have.
The chattering classes like to say “the GOP base is frustrated because conservative leaders let them down ... .” This misses the point. They did let them down but not because they didn’t fulfill the evangelical/small government/strong military agenda. They let them down because they didn’t fulfill the dogwhistle agenda, which was always about white ressentiment and authoritarian dominance. [The nominee] is the first person to come along and explicitly say what they really want and promise to give it to them.
Update (March 6):   Leonard Pitts makes it clear the joke is on them.
The popular storyline goes that voters are seeking political outsiders this year in their frustration over a government where the legislative gears are frozen and nothing gets done. What that storyline forgets is that this gridlock was by design, that GOP leaders held a meeting on the very evening of the president’s first inauguration and explicitly decided upon a policy of non-cooperation to deny him anything approaching a bipartisan triumph.
Republicans and their media accomplices buttressed that strategy with a campaign of insult and disrespect designed to delegitimize Obama. With their endless birther stupidity, their death panels idiocy, their constant budget brinksmanship and their cries of, “I want my country back!” they stoked in the public nothing less than hatred for the interloper in the White House who’d had the nerve to be elected president.
And the strategy worked, hobbling and frustrating Obama. But as a bullet doesn’t care who it hits and a fire doesn’t care who it burns, the forces of ignorance and unreason, grievance and fear the Republicans calculatedly unleashed have not only wounded the president. No, it becomes more apparent every day that those forces have gravely wounded politics itself, meaning the idea that we can — or even should — reason together, compromise, form consensus.
Update (March 12):  Neal Gabler blasts mainstream media for being "shocked, shocked" that Republicans aren't a party that exudes decency.
[T]he real story – one the popularity of [the nominee's] candidacy has revealed and inarguably the biggest political story of the last 50 years — is the decades-long transformation of Republicanism from a business-centered, small town, white Protestant set of beliefs into quite possibly America’s primary institutional force of bigotry, intellectual dishonesty, ignorance, warmongering, intractability and cruelty against the vulnerable and powerless.
Update (March 17):  For his supporters who "want their country back" and in the words of the nominee himself, "It's payback time."
[H]is pettiness, his hurt ego, and his desire for revenge on those who [he] think[s] aren’t giving him his due is what compels his supporters to rally around him. A lot of his support comes from people who see themselves in him: People who believe they — white conservative Christians who shun city life — deserve to be at the center of American life and culture, but look out and see a world where the president is a black man from Chicago.
The modern conservative movement is filled with people who believe they are due deference from the rest of us but are getting mockery instead. The conservative media has stoked this narrative of cultural resentment for decades, too. “Liberal elite” is a common catchphrase on the right. Some might think that term is an economic one, but in reality, it’s a cultural one.
“[L]iberal elite” is a term of cultural resentment, rooted in a thwarted sense of conservative entitlement. It’s backed by this narrative that there once was a time when America was “great” because the culture was controlled by white Christians, but at some point, usually the 1960s, the undesirables — hippies, artists, people of color, secularists, feminists, gay people — started taking over. This sense that something has been stolen and needs to be taken back is the organizing narrative of conservative populism.
Update (March 20):  Sean Illing quotes two conservatives. Bret Stephens:
Liberals may have been fond of claiming that Republicans were all closet bigots and that tax cuts were a form of racial prejudice, but the accusation rang hollow because the evidence for it was so tendentious. Not anymore. The candidacy of [the nominee] is the open sewer of American conservatism…It would be terrible to think that the left was right about the right all these years.
And Max Boot:
I’m a lifelong Republican but [the nominee's] surge proves that every bad [thing] Democrats have ever said about GOP is basically true.
Update (March 29):  Charles Pierce considers how we got here.
For four decades now, ever since Ronald Reagan fed it the monkeybrains in the 1980 [election], hitching his party to the snake-oil of supply-side economics and to the sad remnants of white supremacy, often as expressed through an extremist splinter of American Protestantism, the Republican Party has been afflicted with the prion disease that now has blossomed into utter public madness. That's the story everyone [in the media] was too blind, stupid, or afraid to tell. You know who in the media really created [the nominee]? Anyone who laughed at Ronald Reagan's casual relationship with the truth and with empirical reality. Anyone who blew off Iran-Contra. ... Anyone who cast Newt Gingrich as a serious man of ideas. Anyone who cast Paul Ryan as an economic savant, that's who. Anyone who wrote admiring profiles of how shrewd Lee Atwater and Karl Rove were. Anyone who put Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck on the cover of national magazines based simply on their ratings. Anyone who put Matt Drudge on a public-affairs program. Anyone who watched the conservative movement, the only animating force the Republican party has, drive the party further and deeper into madness, they are the ones who share the blame. [The nominee] merely has taken the bark off ideas that were treated as legitimate for far too long by far too many people, most of whom don't really give a damn about the plight of the vanishing middle class except for its use as fuel for rage-based, self-destructive politics.
Update (April 29):  I'm just going to borrow this excerpt from Paul Krugman.
Both parties make promises to their bases. But while the Democratic establishment more or less tries to make good on those promises, the Republican establishment has essentially been playing bait-and-switch for decades. And voters finally rebelled against the con. [...] 
[The Republican] party has historically won elections by appealing to racial enmity and cultural anxiety, but its actual policy agenda is dedicated to serving the interests of the 1 percent, above all through tax cuts for the rich — which even Republican voters don’t support, while they truly loathe elite ideas like privatizing Social Security and Medicare. 
What [the nominee] has been doing is telling the base that it can order à la carte. He has, in effect, been telling aggrieved white men that they can feed their anger without being forced to swallow supply-side economics, too. Yes, his actual policy proposals still involve huge tax cuts for the rich, but his supporters don’t know that — and it’s possible that he doesn’t, either. Details aren’t his thing.
Update (May 6):  A lot of people call themselves conservative, but they aren't really concerned about the issues conservatives care about. Norm Ornstein explains.
When you look at populism over the longer course of both American history and other countries that have suffered economic traumas as a result of financial collapse, you’re gonna get the emergence of some leaders who exploit nativism, protectionism, and isolationism. They’re components — sometimes greater, sometimes lesser — that are baked into the process. So you’ve got a bit of that.
But if you forced me to pick one factor explaining what's happened, I would say this is a self-inflicted wound by Republican leaders.
Over many years, they've adopted strategies that have trivialized and delegitimized government. They were willing to play to a nativist element. And they tried to use, instead of stand up to, the apocalyptic visions and extremism of some cable television, talk radio, and other media outlets on the right.
And add to that, they've delegitimized President Obama, but they've failed to succeed with any of the promises they've made to their rank and file voters, or Tea Party adherents. So when I looked at that, my view was, "what makes you think, after all of these failures, that you're going to have a group of compliant people who are just going to fall in line behind an establishment figure?"
Cantor, McConnell, and others went out and really tried to fan the flames of Tea Party and populist anger, working it to their advantage in midterm contests. But what ended up happening was that they undermined their own authority.
When you basically move dramatically away from what we call the regular order, when you almost debase your own institutions — you’re gonna find an opening for somebody who’s never been a part of it and who can offer you very, very simplistic answers.
Update (July 23):  With the Republican nomination official, Heather Digby Parton says the collapse of the conservative movement is complete.
[I]t’s clear that the [the election] is not simply a matter of a charismatic con man dazzling a large number of Republicans into believing that he’s going to magically turn back the clock to a time that only existed in the imaginations of Hollywood screenwriters. It’s about the collapse of an ideological movement and a political party. The bottom has fallen out of an entire belief system. That’s where the darkness is coming from.
The last two decades have been disastrous for the conservative movement and not just because it “ran its course” or “matured.” The three pillars of conservatism, traditional values, free market economics and a strong national defense all failed and failed in rather spectacular fashion.
All that’s left of the “three-legged stool” of conservatism is the seat — racism, nativism and xenophobia. That’s what [the nominee] is running on. And it’s also failing. As you can see by the words of Ana Navarro or Ted Cruz, John Kasich or Jeb Bush or the whole staff of National Review, the party is splitting over that issue as well. The conservative movement as we’ve known it is disintegrating.
At this point there are no leaders who are untainted by hypocrisy and past mistakes, no new ideas, no “young guns.” The dark, dystopian vision we saw this week in Cleveland is all they have left. For the conservative movement it’s midnight in America.
Update (August 8):  Gary Legum doubts that Republican elites are going to make any progress reforming the party after the coming defeat this fall.
[T]he GOP’s voters have fallen for [neo-fascism], which has little use for ideology or policy. Mostly they are a seething mass of rage at undocumented immigrants, the Black Lives Matter movement, Islamic terrorists – whatever [the nominee] is telling them to be scared of at any given moment. They are unlikely to disappear after the election.
Update (August 23):  Heather Digby Parton continues to point out that the traditional conservative movement has lost its way to an "authoritarian white nationalist" voice.
Although the right-wing antecedents to [the Republican nominee] are not hard to find, nobody like him has ever come this far. The establishment is treading lightly, trying to keep a distance without angering his followers. And the movement that spent so many years creating and nurturing their ideology is very off balance. This is an insurgency they don’t control and it’s very difficult to see how they can reclaim their place in this carefully nurtured ecosystem when the man who leads it doesn’t know or care about their philosophy. And neither, it turns out, do his voters, most of whom have been voting Republican for years.
Update (September 25):  Parton writes often about how millions of GOP voters don't really care about movement conservatism and an interview with Samuel Goldman delves into that notion.
Most people just don't think very much about political philosophy. They vote one way out of habit or out of vague affinity. I think, by the way, that applies to Democrats too. I don't think there are so very many philosophical progressives out there. ... They pick the component they like and often ignore the rest or even are unaware or don't seem to perceive the tension between different elements of the package.
One of the difficulties is what you might call the [Republican nominee] bloc. I'm using this to refer to a silent majority that isn't a majority and is not particularly silent: whites, generally older, generally less educated, although of course with exemptions for all of those generalizations.
[This group] is a very, very awkward size. It seems to be somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of the electorate, which is big enough that it feels like a majority but small enough that it isn't actually a majority.
That's a very uncomfortable place to be, politically, because smaller groups I think come to appreciate, not immediately but eventually, that they have to compromise and form coalitions. Larger groups can just win.
But this group doesn't seem small enough to compromise or big enough to win. That makes people very angry. I think some of that anger is reflected not just in [the nominee's] campaign but in the sort of rhetoric you see around the rallies. And everyone has seen footage of people who are just hopping mad in a way that I suspect is alien not just to the journalists who cover them but also to movement conservatives who have claimed to speak for them in the past.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Declining Fisheries

A study published in Nature Communications finds that the fish harvest has been greatly under reported. Up to 30 percent more fish were caught than what was previously reported for a period of 60 years. Another report estimates that by 2050 the amount of plastic in the ocean will outweigh all the fish.


Hottest Year (Again)

As expected, 2015 is now confirmed as the warmest year in the temperature record. NASA announced that 2015 was 0.13 degrees Celsius warmer than 2014 (NOAA reports 0.16 degrees warmer). NOAA indicated 2015 was 0.9 degrees Celsius above the twentieth century average.


Update (February 5):  Three things to know.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Record Heat

I just want to preserve this for our local deniers.
Yakima in 2015 was hotter 
than the Dust Bowl
By Kate Prengaman, Yakima Herald-Republic

With five months smashing high temperature records in Yakima last year, it’s no surprise that 2015 was the hottest year on record for the region and for the state.
Last year’s average temperature of 50 degrees was 3.9 degrees above normal — breaking the record set during the Dust Bowl year of 1934 by 0.9 degrees, according to a new analysis from Washington State University. 
Washington is one of four states that had record-setting warm weather last year, along with Oregon, Montana and Florida.

Meanwhile, Idaho, California and Alaska recorded their second warmest years since 1895. 
The warmer-than-usual trend was even stronger in the Yakima region than the statewide average. Here, 2015 was 5.5 degrees above the normal of 49.7, according to National Weather Service data. 
Even snowy December was a few degrees above normal. High temperature records were set in February, March, May, June and October for the Yakima area and July just missed the record set in 2014.

“The consistency of the abnormal warmth throughout the year was remarkable,” WSU meteorologist Nic Loyd said in a news release
It’s just getting started, but so far temperatures have been much closer to normal in Yakima for 2016 — 28.8 degrees on average, compared to the normal of 29.1.

Update (May 2):  A follow-up story about April.
April in Yakima was warmest on record
By Rafael Guerrero, Yakima Herald-Republic

If April felt much warmer than normal, that’s because it was.

The National Weather Service announced Monday that last month was the warmest April on record in Yakima. The average temperature was 58.4 degrees, or 9.3 degrees above normal. The previous warmest April was recorded in 1977.

According to weather service data, only two days last month saw lower-than-normal daily high temperatures. The highest temperature was reported on April 20, when the Yakima Air Terminal station recorded a high of 88. New record highs were reported on six days last month.

High temperatures averaged 74.3 degrees, which was 10.5 degrees above normal. Low temperatures, meanwhile, averaged 42.5 degrees, which was 8.1 degrees above normal.

Friday, January 1, 2016

White Male Problems

I'm trying to brace myself for the next ten months. President Truman's characterization as the "guardians of privilege" (which I don't recall ever seeing before) never seemed so apt. But the conservative base is angry. They've been used for years in the interest of privilege.
In order to get lots of votes, they need more than just the rich voting for them. In order to get lots of poor and middle class people voting for a party advocating policies in direct opposition to the economic interests of the vast majority of people, they wave around social issues like a matador waves a cape in front of a bull. The wealthy can watch the culture wars play out from on high, laughing to themselves all the while. All of the fine hardworking Christian culture warriors are the peasants fighting for their king, who urges them to battle for god while being primarily concerned with maintaining a healthy flow of capital.
The base is angry that they've been betrayed by the Republican leadership in Congress over December's budget vote.
The “betrayal” in this case refers to the annual failure to end Obamacare and the continuance of the program for Syrian refugees. But the one item that has them apoplectic is continued funding for Planned Parenthood. And there’s good reason for the agitation: The social conservatives are in total revolt. And that is a big problem for the GOP, which depends upon the evangelical churches to get out the vote.
The anger spills over into the Republican primary where "establishment" candidates can't get traction. The base wants someone to wipe out the Obama years--they want revenge. According to a focus group conducted by Frank Luntz
Some still believe the president is not Christian. Many believe he does not love America. And just about all of them think he does not reflect the values the country was built upon.
Of course, this is delusional. Tom Gogola believes the United States really wasn't ready for our first black president.
The first year of Obama's presidency was dominated by efforts to hold off the collapse of the American economy and undo the damage wrought by the smirking failure who previously occupied the White House. As he rolls into his last year as president, Obama appears to have largely succeeded on that front, but you'd never know it.
Then as now, Obama and his accomplishments are drowned out by the pugnacity, the sneers, the lies and the anger that regularly emits from so-called victims of Obama's presidency and their enablers in the political-media establishment—blue-collar workers of the white persuasion left in a new-economy wilderness of shifting demographics. They are content to gloat about their anti-intellectualism as those voters continue to cling to the guns and religion that made them hate Obama in the first place.
A hatred based on lies means they're avoiding the underlying issues. The lunatic right hates that their's is a minority view now. Gary Legum calls them out.
It is not so much a belief that GOP elites in the Obama era have “sold them out” as it is a fear that GOP elites have “sold them out in favor of immigrants/Muslims/black people/moochers/political correctness/campus leftists/what-have-you.”
I’m talking about racism, of course. ...[W]e’re not talking about the type of racism that wears hoods and burns crosses on black families’ lawns. If anything, we’re talking about a racism more subtle and pernicious and backed into the structure of American society, a racism whose existence conservatives so often yadda yadda when the subject arises, a racism that we are forever exhausting ourselves just trying to prove to people ... that it exists.
As a white male, I feel comfortable saying that [wonder[ing] how white male became an accusation rather than a description] might have something to do with all the bad stuff white males have done for much of human history. Not that there hasn’t been good stuff. But when you have spent hundreds of years being the dominant force in nearly every facet of society, you have to expect a backlash as that society becomes more open and multicultural. You can take the accusation as a personal affront, or you can acknowledge that not every white man in history has been, to put it mildly, as awesome as you think you are. It’s a complicated history, but also it is really not.
Update (January 2):  If only a black man hadn't gone and got himself elected President, we wouldn't have all this racist backlash.