Canada's Summer

The wildfires in Canada burned 18.5 million hectares or about 71,000 square miles--an area the size of Washington State.

As of early October, 18.5 million hectares had burned across the country, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre Inc. Preliminary estimates from Natural Resources Canada show emissions from those fires amounted to roughly 2,400 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent – more than triple the 670 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent reported as Canada’s total emissions for 2021 in the most recent National Inventory Report.

Carbon Dioxide Concentration Highest in 14 million years

An article published in Science finds that 420 ppm of carbon dioxide corresponds to when the Earth was as much as 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer.

Too Little and Too Much

Robert Hunziker quotes an estimate of $200 trillion needed to achieve zero emissions by 2050. Meanwhile, the "production gap" is expected to be twice the level of fossil fuels by 2030 than what would be consistent with the 1.5 degree warming limit.

Increasing Rate of Warming

An article published in Oxford Open Climate Change called "Global warming in the pipeline" finds that the 

decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050.

Lead author James Hansen: 

The 1.5-degree limit is deader than a doornail. And the 2-degree limit can be rescued, only with the help of purposeful actions.

Uncharted

An article published in BioScience updates "vital signs" for the planet. There are now 20 of 35 at record extremes.

The effects of global warming are progressively more severe, and possibilities such as a worldwide societal breakdown are feasible and dangerously underexplored.

[W]e advocate for reducing resource overconsumption; reducing, reusing, and recycling waste in a more circular economy; and prioritizing human flourishing and sustainability. We emphasize climate justice and fair distribution of the costs and benefits of climate action, particularly for vulnerable communities. We call for a transformation of the global economy to prioritize human well-being and to provide for a more equitable distribution of resources. We also call to stabilize and gradually decrease the human population with gender justice through voluntary family planning and by supporting women's and girls' education and rights, which reduces fertility rates and raises the standard of living.

Missing the Present

This year is likely to be the warmest on record--exceeding the years 2016 and 2020. Berkley Earth estimates there is a 55 percent chance the temperature anomaly for 2023 will reach 1.5 degrees Celcius.

And as Émile Torres points out, this summer will be among the mildest for the rest of our lives.

In a few decades, we'll look back on 2023 as the calm before the storm, when life was still fairly normal. Our children may even remember this year with nostalgia, as a fading glimpse of a world they never got to know — one marked by relative stability rather than environmental chaos and catastrophic collapse. For all the horrors of this summer, we should perhaps take a moment to appreciate it, because this may be as good as it gets moving forward.

Climate Deaths

A study published in Energies estimates the toll from future warming.

Several studies are consistent with the "1000-ton rule," according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter.

Hottest Month (Yes, So Far)

The Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that last month is the warmest on record by a wide margin.

July’s global average temperature of 16.95 degrees Celsius (62.51 degrees Fahrenheit) was a third of a degree Celsius (six tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) higher than the previous record set in 2019.

The month was 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times [and] 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.3 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than the average July from 1991 to 2020.

Days in July have been hotter than previously recorded from July 2 on.

Update (September 6):  The World Meteorological Organization announced that this summer was the warmest for the Northern Hemisphere. 

Last month was not only the hottest August scientists ever recorded by far with modern equipment, it was also the second hottest month measured, behind only July 2023.

Update (October 9):  And now the record for the largest monthly anomaly.

Last month's average temperature was 0.93 degrees Celsius (1.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1991-2020 average for September. That's the warmest margin above average for a month in 83 years of records kept by the European Space Agency's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Copernicus calculated that the average temperature for September was 16.38 degrees Celsius (61.48 degrees Fahrenheit), which broke the old record set in September 2020 by a whopping half-degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit).

Update (November 10):  Climate Central reports that the twelve months from November 2022 to October 2023 were the warmest in recorded history. 

[A]verage global temperatures during that period were roughly 1.32º Celsius (2.4º Fahrenheit) above preindustrial averages. As a result, roughly nine out of ten humans alive experienced at least 10 days over the past 12 months during which high temperatures would have been unlikely if not for climate change.

 

Hottest Day ... So Far

The global mean temperature measured 62.62 degrees Fahrenheit on July 3 exceeding the previous record of 62.46 degrees set in August 2016. I would guess this record will be broken in considerably less than seven years.

One reason is that the carbon dioxide concentration in Mauna Loa was 424 parts per million in May. 

That’s more than 50% higher than before the industrial era began roughly 250 years ago and 3 parts per million higher than what federal scientists counted in May 2022. It represents the fourth-largest annual increase since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration started its tally 65 years ago.

This trend is pushing the Arctic toward ice-free summers as soon as the 2030s. 

The loss of summer sea ice would trigger a feedback loop known as "Arctic amplification" with the dark ocean absorbing more solar heat and causing additional planetary warming.

And the emergence of the El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean only intensifies extreme weather events.

The effects of El Niño tend to peak during December, but the impact typically takes time to spread across the globe. This lagged effect is why forecasters believe 2024 could be the first year that humanity surpasses [warming of] 1.5 degrees Celsius. Global average temperatures in 2022 were 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer when compared to the late 19th century.

Update (July 5):  Well, that was fast.

On Tuesday, the global average temperature peaked at a new all-time high of 17.18 degrees Celsius [62.92 degrees Fahrenheit] as regions worldwide—from Asia to Africa to the U.S. South—reeled from dangerous heatwaves.

Update (July 6):  Apparently, Wednesday tied Tuesday's record. Brian McNoldy:

It's so far out of line of what's been observed that it's hard to wrap your head around. It doesn't seem real.

Update (July 7):  The new (unofficial) record, set Thursday, is 63.01 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Update (July 15):  No new global records yet, but the southwest U.S. is blazing.

Nearly a third of Americans were under extreme heat advisories, watches and warnings. The blistering heat wave was forecast to get worse this weekend for Nevada, Arizona and California, where desert temperatures were predicted to soar in parts past 120 degrees Fahrenheit (48.8 degrees Celsius) during the day, and remain in the 90s F (above 32.2 C) overnight.

Phoenix marked the city’s 15th consecutive day of 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) or higher temperatures on Friday, hitting 116 degrees Fahrenheit (46.6 degrees Celsius) by late afternoon, and putting it on track to beat the longest measured stretch of such heat. The record is 18 days, recorded in 1974.

Update (July 26):  World Weather Attribution claims that this month's record heat would be "virtually impossible" in the absence of anthropogenic climate change. 

Update (September 10):  Phoenix continues to set new heat records for 110 degree Fahrenheit days.

[Saturday] was the 54th day this year that the official reading at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport made the mark, eclipsing the previous record of 53 days set in 2020.

In July, Phoenix also set a record with a 31-day streak of highs at or above 110 F (43.3 C). The previous record of 18 straight days was set in 1974.

Too Late?

Paul Rosenberg has published a series of three articles focused on author Peter Turchin and his book, End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. Turchin argues the United States is entering a period of crisis that is part of a cycle typical for many countries through history. 

Rosenberg recalls a quote from Amanda Littman and offers serveral resources that give him reason for hope.

I think that democracy is at a breaking point. If we can get through the next couple of years, the next three years, then the next five years after that are going to be unbelievably good.

Of course, it hardly seems likely the U.S. can truly prove to be "exceptional" and avoid the fate so many other societies have encountered. And yet, we need to try.

Safe and Just

A paper published in Nature finds that the Earth system is in dire condition.

We propose [Earth system boundaries] for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice). ... Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs ... are already exceeded.

Lead author Johan Rockström:

This means that unless a timely transformation occurs, it is most likely that irreversible tipping points and widespread impacts on human well-being will be unavoidable. Avoiding that scenario is crucial if we want to secure a safe and just future for current and future generations.

Stan Cox notes that technology simply can't ensure that "safe and just" future.

In the quest for sufficient mineral resources to make green dreams come true, affluent societies will become more dependent on an even more technologically complex, even more physically vulnerable energy supply as they exploit the resources of the global South. Those promoting this quest are all too aware that we are bursting through our planet’s ecological and resource limits.

The alternative to a voracious, high-energy, self-sabotaging economy would be one that provides for just enough material production to equitably ensure a decent, satisfying life for all.

In coming decades, it will be essential that communities across the nation and world find a way to sustain a decent life amid ecological breakdown, in a future they themselves didn’t create.

Update (September 14):  An article published in Science Advances finds that six of nine planetary boundaries have been exceeded and two others are heading the wrong way.

Johan Rockström:

We are in very bad shape. We show in this analysis that the planet is losing resilience and the patient is sick.

The Source of Mental Illness

Bruce Levine questions the "medical model" of mental illness--does that approach really help people with their difficulties or does it work to the benefit of those who control society?

While researchers have not linked any psychiatric condition to neurobiological variables, there are many links between these conditions and socioeconomic variables. Results from a 2013 national survey, issued by the U.S. government’s Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), provide extensive evidence that unemployment, poverty, and involvement in the criminal justice system are highly associated with depression and suicidality.

Moreover, in the late 1990s, the Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) study revealed a powerful relationship between childhood trauma (including physical and emotional abuse) with later adult emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances. An alienating and dehumanizing society such as ours that creates extensive anxiety, powerlessness, resentment, and rage is a society that creates adults who, in their interactions with children, have little frustration tolerance; and this lack of frustration tolerance makes abuse and trauma of children more likely—resulting in the adverse childhood experiences that create later adult emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances.

The ruling class could not care less whether psychiatric treatment consists of bloodletting, lobotomy, electroshock, SSRI antidepressants, or psychedelic microdosing. As long as the "ruling idea" of society is that our emotional difficulties and behavioral disturbances are caused by our medical defects, this keeps us diverted from just how much shit we have to eat in order to survive and how extraordinary our good luck need be for us to find joy.

As Marx stated, "The ideas of the ruling class are in every epoch the ruling ideas," and you would have to be an especially stupid member of the ruling class not to see the value of the "ruling idea" that emotional suffering and behavioral disturbances are the result of medical individual defects—and not the result of a society that is a good deal for the ruling class but is alienating and traumatizing for many of the rest of us.

Which Narrative?

Also discussed in our group, "A Vast Experiment" by Elizabeth Kolbert which ends with:

Climate change isn't a problem that can be solved by summoning the "will." It isn't a problem that can be "fixed" or "conquered," though these words are often used. It isn't going to have a happy ending, or a win-win ending, or, on a human timescale, any ending at all. Whatever we might want to believe about our future, there are limits, and we are up against them.

Kolbert isn't for despair, but I think she aims for a balance between unwarranted optimism and demotivating pessimism. There are countless videos proclaiming the next "breakthrough" technology. But it will take a collective effort to figure out the least damaging path forward.

Indictment

More than five years after the story broke, Fuckface von Clownstick will be charged with crimes related to the payoff to Stormy Daniels. CBS News has confirmed the news with a lawyer for the former guy.

Dear Leader is not happy.

Within minutes of the news breaking, [he] posted a lengthy statement on his Truth Social account, which appeared to have been written in advance. The ex-president described the indictment as "political persecution and election interference" and suggested it would help him win the 2024 presidential election.

If it helps his popularity, then he should welcome a downpour of indictments!

Update (March 31):  CNN reports there are 34 counts in the indictment. The speculation is that it includes more than just the Daniels case.

Heather Digby Parton agrees that this probably does help win the nomination.

It may have been possible for someone to challenge Trump unless he was indicted at which point the whole party has to circle the wagons to defend him. That's how perverse the Republican Party has become.

Update (April 4):  The Biggest Loser pleaded not guilty to 34 counts of falsifying business records. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg:

Under New York state law, it is a felony to falsify business records with intent to defraud and intent to conceal another crime. That is exactly what this case is about. Thirty-four false statements made to cover up other crimes. These are felony crimes in New York no matter who you are.

May this only be the beginning. 

This case is about fraud, but Amanda Marcotte points out that "how men treat women tells you a great deal about their character".

[O]ne sure thing we all knew about [Fuckface] was that he didn't believe a woman had a right to say "no" to him. Over the next four years, he proved that this entitled attitude was not limited to sex or women. Trump doesn't think anyone has a right to say "no" to him. Not the president of Ukraine. Not various public officials he leaned on to break the law. And, ultimately, not the American people.

When voters told [him] they preferred Joe Biden, he treated voters like he does a woman who declines his sexual attention. He tried to force himself on the country anyway.

Update (April 5):  Areeba Shah reports that claiming false legal expenses on a tax return may be the crime that nails Fuckface. Shah quotes John Kaley and Catherine Ross.

Lying to affect an election would be extraordinarily difficult to prove. Every politician and every statement would come under scrutiny. It would become a war among the political parties with few survivors. False documents are much easier. It's either true or false.

The state tax violation is a more straightforward and easier case to make. It is implied in the statement of facts – particularly [regarding] the payments to Cohen reflecting a joint intent that he falsely report the reimbursement as income and providing him with funds to cover that cost. It should not matter that Cohen paid money in. He filed a false tax return.

Update (July 5):  I forgot to note here that Dear Leader became the first former president to be indicted in federal court last month. And there's so much more to come.

Special counsel Jack Smith hasn't been resting on his laurels since he dropped 37 federal charges on [Fuckface]. Smith is also probing [The Defendant's] role in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and his reported attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. That effort appears to be homing in on two areas in particular: the effort to have "fake electors" try to cast Electoral College votes for [the loser] and the fundraising effort that raked in boatloads of cash in the weeks after the election.

Update (August 1):  It's the Big One:

And in an interview with Chauncey DeVega, Kenneth McCallion suggests Dear Leader will need to cut a deal to stay out of prison. We can hope that means dropping out of the presidential race.

The final nails are being put in the coffin and [Fuckface] is trapped inside. [He] can bang away all he wants, but he is not getting out of this one. All of his crimes have been "unforced errors" brought on by his inflated ego and monumental hubris. He has been doing this his whole life, and always managed to a Houdini-like escape. But justice has finally caught up with him, and if he doesn't realize this, he will very soon.

Update (August 2):  Nick Visser lists seven key points in the indictment:

1. [The Defendant] knew his claims were false but spread them anyway to create an "intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger".

2. The indictment identifies six co-conspirators.

3. People in [The Defendant's] orbit repeatedly told him there was no evidence of voter fraud.

4. [The Defendant] acknowledged claims about election fraud and voting machines pushed by a co-conspirator sounded "crazy".

5. [The Defendant] pressured the Justice Department to support him and threatened to remove those who refused to go along with his plan.

6. [Vice President] Pence's notes helped the special counsel craft his case.

7. [The Defendant] waited and watched on TV as his supporters stormed the Capitol.

I'd like to add that the fake electors scheme was still being pursued even after Congress reconvened following the attack on the Capitol.

Update (August 6):  In case we forgot who we're dealing with, this the Defendant's post after his arraignment for the latest indictment:

IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU.

Update (August 14):  Thirteen more counts in Georgia for a total of 91. And there are 18 co-defendants. 

[T]hey knowingly and willfully joined conspiracy to unlawfully change the outcome of the election in favor of [Fuckface]. That conspiracy contained common plan and purpose to commit two or more acts of racketeering activity in Fulton County, Georgia, elsewhere in the State of Georgia, and in other states.

David Badash quotes the New York Times: 

The indictment laid out eight ways the 'enterprise' obstructed the election: by lying to the Georgia state legislature, by lying to state officials, by creating fake pro-Trump electors, by harassing election workers, by soliciting Justice Department officials, by soliciting Vice President Mike Pence, by breaching voting machines and by engaging in a cover up.

Update (August 15):  Liz Skalka and Daniel Marans list eight key points in the Georgia indictment:

[The First Defendant] had lots of help in his quest to undo Biden's win, prosecutors allege.

The indictment isn't limited to only what prosecutors contend happened in Georgia.

It cites the election workers who received death threats after [the First Defendant] shared a story falsely accusing them of election fraud.

[The First Defendant's] tweets are in there.

The numbers were all bullshit.

[John] Eastman allegedly admitted that he knew his plan violated the law.

Lying is a big part of the conspiracy theory allegedly led by [the First Defendant] — but not all of it.

Some of the alleged crimes continued well into Biden's presidency.

Also, Jacob Fischler has compiled a timeline for all the criminal activities and legal actions.

Update (August 17):  Amanda Marcotte responds to the ususal Republican whining.

If you actually reads Fani Willis' indictment, or even a decent summary, it becomes clear that she's charging these people with "organized crime" because, well, they conspired with each other to commit a big crime, which is pretty much the definition.

[I]t's so aggravating to hear Republicans disingenuously accuse Democrats of "criminalizing politics." Oh, hell no. [Dear Leader] did that, when he made it clear that being a loyal Republican means being ready and willing to commit crimes for the boss, or at least to dishonor yourself by pretending you were looking the other way and didn't see anything.

Survival Guide for Humanity

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published the AR6 Synthesis Report. Warming stands at 1.1 degrees Celsius and the report claims there is still a chance to limit it to 1.5 degrees, though probably with a "temporary" overshoot.

There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.

Matt McGrath and Georgina Rannard report further:

The authors say that they are optimistic that dramatic changes can be achieved rapidly, pointing to the massive falls in the price of energy made from solar and wind.

They also argue that changes driven by consumers in terms of diet, food waste and switching to low carbon transport can achieve significant cuts in emissions from many sectors.

But the report also acknowledges that in addition to getting to net zero emissions as soon as possible, large scale use of carbon dioxide removal technology will be needed.

Update (March 21):  Nick Visser offers five key points in the report:

1. Climate change has already wreaked havoc on the planet.

2. Every bit of warming matters.

3. The impacts of climate change are and will continue to be severe.

4. The warmer the world, the more animal species at serious risk.

5. There is a window to act, but it’s small and getting smaller.

 Update (March 22):  Can satire save us?

Retribution

The rematch is going to get ugly. The fascist tendencies in more than one candidate aren't subtle anymore.

In 2016, I declared: I am your voice. Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed: I am your retribution.

Update (July 5):  Amanda Marcotte explains why no other candidate can defeat Dear Leader in the primary. 

What MAGA voters love about [him] is not that he's "tough," which would be laughable since he's actually a big old crybaby.

They view him as a punishment to inflict on the rest of the country. MAGA may stand for "make America great again," but in reality, it's a movement focused solely on inflicting pain.

[H]is indictments and other reminders of his criminality only increase GOP support. ... MAGA voters are unmoved when reminded [Fuckface] will struggle in a general election. It's really not about winning elections for them, either. It's about making the process of having an election as miserable as possible.

[Chris] Christie's words about how [The Defendant] "doesn't give a damn about the American people" don't matter to the MAGA base. They know he's speaking the truth about [von Clownstick's] views. It just happens that GOP voters also do not give a damn about the American people.

Update (July 6):  Marcotte also notes that modern Republicans are not just out to destroy democracy--they were more than happy to promote disinformation through a fake social media account.

For [MAGA] conservatives, it's not even really so much about lying as it is waging war on the concept of truth itself. The goal isn't to fool people, so much as it is to deprive truth of all social value. They want a world where what they want to believe is "true" and what is actually true is not relevant.

The Choice

We have a split Congress and face the prospect of a presidential rematch next year. President Biden managed Republican hecklers reasonably well during his State of the Union speech. And in response, Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders said,

The dividing line in America is no longer between right or left.  The choice is between normal or crazy.

She should know, and we're pretty sure which side she's on. 

90 Seconds to Midnight

Russia's war has brought us closer than ever. Emile Torres comments:

I've wondered how many near-misses there may have been during the Ukraine war, especially since Putin put his nuclear forces on "high alert," that we won't learn about for many years (if we ever do). How close have we come to the brink without realizing it? It remains entirely possible that a mistake, tomorrow or next week or next month, could start World War III.

This is the world we now live in, and it's why the warnings behind the Doomsday Clock are nothing to sneeze at. And we haven't even gotten to climate change ...

Evaggelos Vallianatos notes that U.S. actions shouldn't be overlooked as a contributing factor.

[G]uests in the doomsday clock ceremony denounced Russia but said nothing about America funding the war in the Ukraine that could explode into a doomsday war. This is disturbing. After all, these doomsday clock scientists should not allow narrow nationalistic feelings to confuse them about the high moral ground they espouse for the abolition of their handiwork, nuclear weapons. Taking sides diminishes their standing, and that of the importance of the iconic doomsday clock.

Robert Hunziker quotes Julian Cribb on the bigger picture.

We humans are facing the greatest emergency of our entire million-year existence. This is a crisis compounded of 10 catastrophic risks, each of our own making. These threats are deeply interconnected and are now arriving together. However, their collective scale is so vast and their relationships so complex that few yet understand the peril they place us in.

The Past Eight Years are the Warmest

The Copernicus Climate Change Service announced 2022 as the 5th warmest year on record globally.

The annual average temperature was 0.3°C above the reference period of 1991-2020, which equates to approximately 1.2°C higher than the period 1850-1900.

An expected shift to the El Niño pattern would likely make this year even warmer.

The observed warming trends persisted in 2022 despite three consecutive years of La Niña, a climate pattern marked by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean, which tends to suppress warming across the world.

And ocean heat content set another record for the fourth year in a row. 

[T]he oceans are growing more stratified, meaning warm and cold water masses aren't mixing as easily and are instead getting stuck on top of one another, like layers in a cake. Stratification can make it harder for heat, oxygen and vital nutrients to be transported throughout the water column. That can damage marine ecosystems and trap heat near the surface of the water, where it can then proceed to further warm the atmosphere.