Existential Threat

An article published in Nature states that civilization is in a climate emergency that requires urgent action.

[E]vidence is mounting that [tipping points in the Earth system — such as the loss of the Amazon rainforest or the West Antarctic ice sheet —] could be more likely than was thought, have high impacts and are interconnected across different biophysical systems, potentially committing the world to long-term irreversible changes.

[T]he clearest emergency would be if we were approaching a global cascade of tipping points that led to a new, less habitable, ‘hothouse’ climate state.

[C]ascading effects might be common. Research last year analysed 30 types of regime shift spanning physical climate and ecological systems, from collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet to a switch from rainforest to savanna. This indicated that exceeding tipping points in one system can increase the risk of crossing them in others. Such links were found for 45% of possible interactions.

Update (December 7):  Although the phrasing is disputed by some scientists, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warns that "the point of no return is no longer over the horizon, it is in sight and hurtling toward us".

Meanwhile, Robert Hunziker reports on research showing that melting permafrost has changed the Arctic into a net emitter of carbon dioxide.

Update (December 15):  COP25 ends with no new agreements and Greenland's ice loss is seven times as much as it was during the 1990s.

Update (December 24):  Robert Hunziker points to an article about the Amazon at a tipping point and notes that since the first of three droughts starting in 2005, the rainforest has been a net carbon emitter.

Update (December 30):  John Vidal looks back on a "lost decade" in terms of action on climate change. Also, Sarah Ruiz-Grossman and Lydia O’Connor list seven numbers (and one conclusion) to summarize the state of the climate.

The past five years were the hottest ever recorded on the planet
Four of the five largest wildfires in California history happened this decade
Six Category 5 hurricanes tore through the Atlantic region in the past four years
Arctic sea ice cover dropped about 13% this decade
Floods with a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year became a frequent occurrence
There were more than 100 “billion dollar” climate disasters, double from the decade before
Meanwhile, we pumped a record 40.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air in 2019
We’re ending this decade on track to warm a catastrophic 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century

Update (January 5, 2020):  David Roberts thinks we need to be honest with ourselves.

We’ve waited too long. Practically speaking, we are heading past 1.5˚C as we speak and probably past 2˚C as well. This is not a "fact" in the same way climate science deals in facts — collective human behavior is not nearly so easy to predict as biophysical cycles — but nothing we know about human history, sociology, or politics suggests that vast, screeching changes in collective direction are likely.

What bothers me about the forced optimism that has become de rigueur in climate circles is that it excludes the tragic dimension of climate change and thus robs it of some of the gravity it deserves.

That’s the thing: The story of climate change is already a tragedy. It’s sad. Really sad. People are suffering, species are dying off, entire ecosystems are being lost, and it’s inevitably going to get worse. We are in the midst of making the earth a simpler, cruder, less hospitable place, not only for ourselves but for all the kaleidoscopic varieties of life that evolved here in a relatively stable climate.

To really grapple with climate change, we have to understand it, and more than that, take it on board emotionally. That can be an uncomfortable, even brutal process, because the truth is that we have screwed around, and are screwing around, and with each passing day we lock in more irreversible changes and more suffering. The consequences are difficult to reckon with and the moral responsibility is terrible to bear, but we will never work through all those emotions and reactions if we can’t talk about it, if we’re only allowed chipper talk about what’s still possible in climate models.

Exceeding one [temperature threshold] does not in any way reduce the moral and political imperative to stay beneath the next. If anything, the need to mobilize against climate change only becomes greater with every new increment of heat, because the potential stakes grow larger.

[I]t should mean getting serious about adaptation, i.e., preparing communities for, and helping them through, the changes that are now inevitable.

[S]hrinking of empathy is arguably the greatest danger facing the human species, the biggest barrier to the collective action necessary to save ourselves. I can’t help but think that the first step in defending and expanding that empathy is reckoning squarely with how much damage we’ve already done and are likely to do, working through the guilt and grief, and resolving to minimize the suffering to come.

Profound Change

With the global mean temperature projected to increase as much as 3.9 degrees Celsius by 2100, the Emissions Gap Report 2019 indicates "greenhouse gas emissions must begin falling 7.6 percent annually by 2020 to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C by 2030".

It is evident that incremental changes will not be enough and there is a need for rapid and transformational action.

Update (November 29):  Alexander Kaufman summarizes seven recent climate reports.

1. Global temperatures are on pace to rise as much as 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century ― more than double what scientists project to be a safe range that remotely resembles our world today.

2. The top 10 fossil-fuel-producing countries are on track to extract 120% more oil, gas and coal than would be consistent with 1.5 degrees of warming.

3. The world’s biggest asset managers remain heavily invested in climate-polluting industries ― and do little if anything to convince those companies to change.

4. The insurance industry looks stunningly unprepared for the “extremely high” risks of climate change.

5. New investments in wind, solar and other renewable energy projects dropped sharply in the developing world last year. Coal, meanwhile, hit a record high.

6. China is building more new coal plants than exist in all of the European Union.

7. The vast majority of Americans want the federal government to do more to curb climate change and protect the environment.

And Carl Boggs examines the modern "grand illusion".

Somehow, against all logic, we have adopted a collective faith in the willingness of ruling governments and corporations to do the right thing.

Update (December 24):  Kyla Mandel uses 28 numbers to summarize the state of the planet this year. Just two:

99%: The chance that 2019 winds up in the top five hottest years ever recorded. According to NOAA data, this year will be either the third or second hottest year in human history.

1.71 degrees Fahrenheit: How much warmer July was compared to the 20th-century average temperature for that month, making it the hottest July ever recorded in human history.

Public Hearings

Televised testimony started today and perhaps the biggest news is the claim that Dear Leader "care[d] more about the investigations of Biden" than any policy regarding Ukraine.

And why was the president's personal lawyer involved at all? Republican counsel offers this defense:

[T]his irregular channel of diplomacy, it’s not as outlandish as it could be.

Update (November 14):  Eric Boehlert says the media don't make it clear just how radical Republicans have become in their defense of Dear Leader.

Most casual news consumers don’t know that Republicans have become detached from reality as they watch the hearings unfold. (I mean, Republicans sound convincing when they spout convoluted claims about Ukraine working to elect Hillary Clinton.) And that’s why it’s important that journalists do their jobs and spell out what’s truly going on, and not depend on the lazy both-sides crutch in order to avoid necessary truth-telling about the state of today’s GOP.

Update (November 15):  Marie Yovanovitch gave her public testimony during which Chair Schiff allowed her to respond to a tweet Schiff called "witness intimidation in real time by the president of the United States".

It’s very intimidating. I can’t speak to what the president is trying to do, but the effect is to be intimidating.

Add it the growing list of articles of impeachment. Amanda Marcotte notes that Dear Leader "hated her because he saw her as a woman who wanted to prevent crimes".

The issue here is that [Fuckface] is a corrupt criminal, not that he's an asshole. While he no doubt took pleasure in harming a woman, the bigger problem is why he was doing it, which was in service of a larger campaign to recruit corrupt Ukrainians to help him cheat in the 2020 election.

Update (November 20):  Lt. Col. Vindman says the investigations were to be regarded as an order, not just a request. And Gordon Sondland says members of the Administration knew about Fuckface's demands.

Everyone was in the loop. It was no secret.

Untold Suffering

An article published in BioScience with 11,258 scientist signatories from 153 countries issues a warning.

We declare clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency. To secure a sustainable future, we must change how we live. [This] entails major transformations in the ways our global society functions and interacts with natural ecosystems.

Recommendations include:

Use energy far more efficiently and apply strong carbon taxes to cut fossil fuel use
Stabilize global population – currently growing by 200,000 people a day – using ethical approaches such as longer education for girls
End the destruction of nature and restore forests and mangroves to absorb carbon dioxide
Eat mostly plants and less meat, and reduce food waste
Shift economic goals away from GDP growth

Update (November 17):  A report published in The Lancet describes the public health impacts of climate change.

Update (February 23, 2020):  A paper published in Nature Energy by Paul Griffin finds that extreme weather events pose a severe economic risk.

If the market doesn't do a better job of accounting for climate, we could have a recession—the likes of which we've never seen before.