Shrinking Glaciers

The Second Glacier Inventory of China shows that the glacial area has decreased from 59,425 to 51,840 square kilometers since 2002.  That looks like a 13 percent decrease in less than 12 years, depending on when the satellite images were taken.

Update (August 3, 2015):  Glaciers are melting at the fastest rate since record keeping began.

Update (November 27, 2015):  Glacier National Park may be glacier-free by 2050.

A Call for Justice Shouldn't Offend

All of us white people in the United States need to hear this--Cleveland Browns player Andrew Hawkins refuses to apologize for wearing a shirt protesting police violence.

I was taught that justice is a right that every American should have. Also justice should be the goal of every American. I think that’s what makes this country. To me, justice means the innocent should be found innocent. It means that those who do wrong should get their due punishment. Ultimately, it means fair treatment. So a call for justice shouldn’t offend or disrespect anybody. A call for justice shouldn’t warrant an apology. 

To clarify, I utterly respect and appreciate every police officer that protects and serves all of us with honesty, integrity and the right way. And I don’t think those kind of officers should be offended by what I did. My mom taught me my entire life to respect law enforcement. I have family, close friends that are incredible police officers and I tell them all the time how they are much braver than me for it. So my wearing a T-shirt wasn’t a stance against every police officer or every police department. My wearing the T-shirt was a stance against wrong individuals doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons to innocent people. 

Unfortunately, my mom also taught me just as there are good police officers, there are some not-so-good police officers that would assume the worst of me without knowing anything about me for reasons I can’t control. She taught me to be careful and be on the lookout for those not-so-good police officers because they could potentially do me harm and most times without consequences. Those are the police officers that should be offended. 

Being a police officer takes bravery. And I understand that they’re put in difficult positions and have to make those snap decisions. As a football player, I know a little bit about snap decisions, obviously on an extremely lesser and non-comparative scale, because when a police officer makes a snap decision, it’s literally a matter of life and death. That’s hard a situation to be in. But if the wrong decision is made, based on pre-conceived notions or the wrong motives, I believe there should be consequence. Because without consequence, naturally the magnitude of the snap decisions is lessened, whether consciously or unconsciously. 

I’m not an activist, in any way, shape or form. Ninety-nine times out of a hundred I keep my opinions to myself on most matters. I worked extremely hard to build and keep my reputation especially here in Ohio, and by most accounts I’ve done a solid job of decently building a good name. Before I made the decision to wear the T-shirt, I understood I was putting that reputation in jeopardy to some of those people who wouldn’t necessarily agree with my perspective. I understood there was going to be backlash, and that scared me, honestly. But deep down I felt like it was the right thing to do. If I was to run away from what I felt in my soul was the right thing to do, that would make me a coward, and I can’t live with that. God wouldn’t be able to put me where I am today, as far as I’ve come in life, if I was a coward. 

As you well know, and it’s well documented, I have a 2-year-old little boy. The same 2-year-old little boy that everyone said was cute when I jokingly threw him out of the house earlier this year. That little boy is my entire world. And the No. 1 reason for me wearing the T-shirt was the thought of what happened to Tamir Rice happening to my little Austin scares the living hell out of me. And my heart was broken for the parents of Tamir and John Crawford knowing they had to live that nightmare of a reality. 

So, like I said, I made the conscious decision to wear the T-shirt. I felt like my heart was in the right place. I’m at peace with it and those that disagree with me, this is America, everyone has the right to their first amendment rights. Those who support me, I appreciate your support. But at the same time, support the causes and the people and the injustices that you feel strongly about. Stand up for them. Speak up for them. No matter what it is because that’s what America’s about and that’s what this country was founded on.

Lima Call for Climate Action

It seems that a weakened agreement was reached for all nations to voluntarily announce emissions cuts.  But without concrete milestones, the aggregate cuts are likely to fall short of what's needed to hold warming to 2 degrees Celsius.  There's a split between what rich and poor countries want to see happen.

Also, a National Bureau of Economic Research paper says warmer temperatures slow productivity and a summary of the year's climate stories.

Update (December 18):  Recent pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions by Europe, China and the United States are not enough to keep warming within the 2 degree threshold.

Update (December 22):  Lindsay Abrams gives a climate change overview for 2014.

Update (December 24):  Joe Romm reminds us that although climate change in the works is irreversible, additional change is not unstoppable.

Update (December 27):  Rebecca Solnit sees hope in climate activism and writes that while the physics of climate change is inevitable, the politics are not.

Update (January 10, 2015):  Michael Klare warns that Big Oil isn't going down without a fight.

Wealth Gap

A Pew Research Center analysis shows that while median real net worth of all U.S. households declined by 40 percent from 2007 to 2013 ($135,700 to $81,400), the gap between white households and black or Hispanic households has grown.  White household wealth declined 26.3 percent.  Black household wealth declined 42.7 percent.  Hispanic household wealth declined 41.9 percent.

Update (December 15):  Tanvi Misra explains:

What’s driving the two ends of the wealth spectrum apart is that while white wealth is growing (albeit modestly), minority wealth is declining steeply. Black household net worth declined by 33.7 percent and Hispanic net worth fell by 14.3 percent between 2010 and 2013.

During the recession, black and Hispanic households took more out of savings to keep their families afloat, but they have not been to replenish that savings post-recession.

Update (December 21):  More from Pew:  the median wealth of upper income households is now 6.6 times that of middle income households.

Torture Report

The Senate Intelligence Committee released a summary of its investigation into torture committed by the Central Intelligence Agency in support of the "war on terror".  Those who carried out the crimes are condemning the report.  Anthony Romero of the ACLU suggests the best we may hope for is a set of pardons--no one would be held accountable, but formal pardons would acknowledge that crimes were committed.

Luke Brinker lists ten appalling findings:

1. The CIA misled executive branch officials, members of Congress, and the public about torture’s effectiveness.

2.  Interrogators would deprive some detainees of sleep for more than a week.

3. Detainees underwent waterboarding until they were unresponsive.

4. The CIA force-fed detainees through their rectums.

5. Interrogators threatened to harm the families and children of detainees.

6. An interrogator threatened to sodomize a detainee with a broomstick.

7. The chief of interrogations described one facility as a “dungeon.”

8. Agency interrogators forced detainees to stand on broken legs and feet.

9. Detainees experienced severe psychological problems.

10.  The CIA lied about how many detainees were in its custody.

Update (December 10):  I can barely bring myself to read much about it, but the crimes need to be reported.

Update (December 13):  Falguni Sheth reminds us that U.S. torture specifically targeted Muslims whether they were actually involved in terrorism or not.

Update (December 16):  Patrick Smith says its time to let go of the myths Americans believe about ourselves.

The myths are more than simply preposterous now. They grow dangerous in a world of rising aspirations and alternative poles of power.

We have shredded all claim to superior political, economic and social arrangements.

Update (December 22):  The New York Times calls for prosecution.

Mr. Obama has said multiple times that “we need to look forward as opposed to looking backwards,” as though the two were incompatible. They are not. The nation cannot move forward in any meaningful way without coming to terms, legally and morally, with the abhorrent acts that were authorized, given a false patina of legality, and committed by American men and women from the highest levels of government on down.

Starting a criminal investigation is not about payback; it is about ensuring that this never happens again and regaining the moral credibility to rebuke torture by other governments. Because of the Senate’s report, we now know the distance officials in the executive branch went to rationalize, and conceal, the crimes they wanted to commit. The question is whether the nation will stand by and allow the perpetrators of torture to have perpetual immunity for their actions.

And speculation about the contents of a classified, internal CIA report referred to as the Panetta Review.

Not Just For the Future

A study by Katharine Ricke and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institute for Science uses computer modeling to show that maximum warming from an emission of carbon dioxide occurs in about ten years.  The warming persists for over 100 years.  Emissions reductions matter to us now.

Temperature increase from an individual emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). Time series of the marginal warming in mK (=milliKelvin = 0.001 K) per GtC (=1015 g carbon) as projected by 6000 convolution-function simulations for the first 100 years after the emission. Maximum warming occurs a median of 10.1 years after the CO2 emission event and has a median value of 2.2 mK GtC−1. The colors represent the relative density of simulations in a given region of the plot.

Turn Down the Heat 3

The latest report in the series from the World Bank indicates that the world is already "locked in" to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above the pre-industrial level by mid-century.  There's a 40 percent chance of exceeding 4 degrees of warming by 2100.

Current warming is at 0.8°C above pre-industrial levels. CO2 emissions are now 60 percent higher than in 1990, growing at about 2.5 percent per year. If emissions
continue at this rate, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in line with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2°C would be exceeded within just three decades.

Large scale, irreversible changes in the Earth’s systems have the potential to transform whole regions. Examples of risks that are increasing rapidly with warming include degradation of the Amazon rainforest with the potential for large emissions of CO2 due to self-amplifying feedbacks, disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets with multi-meter sea-level rise over centuries to millennia, and large-scale releases of methane from melting permafrost substantially amplifying warming. Recent peer reviewed science shows that a substantial part of the West Antarctic ice sheet, containing about one meter of sea-level rise equivalent in ice, is now in irreversible, unstable retreat.

The buildup of carbon intensive, fossil-fuel-based infrastructure is locking us into a future of CO2 emissions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned, and numerous energy system modelling exercises have confirmed, that unless urgent action is taken very soon, it will become extremely costly to reduce emissions fast enough to hold warming below 2°C.

Gap vs GOP

The Emissions Gap Report 2014 from the United Nations Environment Programme sets a deadline of 2070 for net carbon dioxide emissions to reach zero and stay within the 2 degree Celsius limit on atmospheric warming.

Since 1990, global emissions have grown by more than 45 per cent and were approximately 54 Gt CO2e in 2012. Looking to the future, scientists have produced business-as-usual scenarios as benchmarks to see what emission levels would be like in the absence of additional climate policies, also assuming country pledges would not be implemented. Under these scenarios, global greenhouse gas emissions would rise to about 59 Gt CO2e in 2020, 68 Gt CO2e in 2030 and 87 Gt CO2e in 2050. It is clear that global emissions are not expected to peak unless additional emission reduction policies are introduced.

But, as Michael Klare points out, the new Congress isn't likely to pass any emission reduction policies.

With Republicans now in control, pro-carbon initiatives will be the order of the day in Congress. [F]or each modest step forward on climate stabilization, the latest election ensures that Americans are destined to march several steps backward when it comes to reliance on climate-altering fossil fuels. It’s a recipe for good times for Big Energy and its congressional supporters and bad times for the rest of us.

IEA Report

Oil prices always seem a bit of a mystery-even low prices can be a problem.  While some market manipulation goes on (previous post), a New York Times editorial indicates that several commodities are down in price due to slower economic growth.  U.S. consumers benefit now, but another world recession may be coming.

This year's report from the International Energy Association expects oil prices to continue to fall through 2015.  But Nick Cunningham notices that the long-term prospects are not so good. Demand for oil in 2040 is projected to be 104 million barrels per day (up from 90 million now) while oil shale and tar sands production is only expected to last about ten more years.  That puts the burden for increased production back on the Middle East--and Iraq was expected to pick up much of that.

IEA says oil and coal production will plateau by 2040 when energy supply will be roughly equal among low-carbon sources, gas, oil and coal.  Renewable sources are growing rapidly, but it doesn't seem like they could make up for any oil production shortfall.

“A well-supplied oil market in the short-term should not disguise the challenges that lie ahead, as the world is set to rely more heavily on a relatively small number of producing countries,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol. “The apparent breathing space provided by rising output in the Americas over the next decade provides little reassurance, given the long lead times of new upstream projects.”

Climate Strutting

The climate agreement between China and the United States might amount to something.  It's certainly a good way to tick off Republicans.  But Patrick Smith suspects that President Obama needed to show some kind of success at the summit.  This agreement helped overshadow the news of Chinese-Russian energy contracts--in the face of U.S. efforts to tank the Russian economy by getting the Saudis to increase oil production and lower prices.  Smith sees a lack of vision on the part of the U.S. regarding the decline of American dominance.

We can start to connect the stars . . . and identify the costs of a consistent pattern of destructive behavior on Washington’s part . . . [but being] [n]ostalgic for the period of primacy known as the American Century, the U.S. cannot accept its passing.

Update (November 28):  I suppose many factors are behind the drop in oil prices.  A Russian oil executive says the OPEC decision to maintain production in the face of dropping prices is an effort to drive American shale oil producers out of business.

Update (December 1):  This discussion suggests the Saudis may be trying to hurt both Russian and American producers--anyone with high marginal costs.

Update (December 4):  Russia is in a recession and more about the impact of falling oil prices.

Update (December 6):  The fracking boom may be coming to an end.

Update (December 13):  An Australian shale drilling company has gone bankrupt.

Update (December 15):  Winners and losers in the oil price drop.

Update (December 17):  The Russian ruble is crashing.

Update (December 18):  Apparently the ruble is stabilizing, but the Russian economy is heading for a recession.

Update (December 21):  Richard Heinberg gives his take--that demand is softening and low prices for oil should not be mistaken for resource abundance.

Update (December 31):  Dan Steffens speculates that Saudi Arabia may be putting pressure on Iran to end their nuclear enrichment program.  But eventually, low oil prices will hurt us all if it leads to supply shortages.  Also, Tom Whipple reminds us that peak oil hasn't gone away.

Update (January 10, 2015):  Robert James Parsons seems to suggest the China-U.S. climate agreement is essentially smoke and mirrors.

Update (January 11, 2015):  More speculation about why oil prices are dropping.

Update (January 28, 2015):  India and the United States also have a climate agreement.

Update (February 3, 2015):  Amid fracking industry layoffs due to falling oil prices, workers represented by the United Steelworkers Union have gone on strike.

Update (February 8, 2015):  The strike expands.

Update (February 9, 2015):  Michael Klare examines the prospects for continued low oil prices.

Update (September 12, 2015):  Fracking production is going down and it seems OPEC is succeeding in driving those producers toward bankruptcy.

Update (September 27, 2015):  More on the "fracking bubble".

Update (December 21, 2015):  Crude oil prices reach an eleven year low.

Update (December 30, 2015):  Maybe the Saudi strategy of trying to drive out high-cost oil producers isn't working so well.

Update (January 3, 2016):  From the podcast On Point, a discussion about oil prices. A new idea for me is the thought that if the Saudi's think oil might not be worth much in the future due to the need to move away from fossil fuels, then they have an incentive to produce as much oil as they can now for whatever price they can get. That's not to say there still aren't other motivations. I'm wondering if pushing other producers out of the market makes the development of alternatives even more urgent.

Update (January 16, 2016):  Michael Klare agrees that the Saudis are trying to drive unconventional oil producers out of the market and yet U.S. production is 9.2 million barrels per day--higher than a year ago. Klare describes the notion of peak demand for oil as the world shifts to renewable sources of energy. He expects the decline of oil to be accompanied by political turmoil.

Update (January 20, 2016):  David Dayen and Gail Tverberg examine the impact of collapsing oil prices.

Update (March 5, 2016):  Ben Walsh cites James Rowe re-enforcing the idea that the Saudis are selling what they can to avoid ending up with "stranded assets".

Update (March 9, 2016):  More from Michael Klare about the declining oil industry.

Update (September 15, 2016):  Angelo Young reports that at least 58 U.S. oil companies have gone bankrupt this year.

Update (September 28, 2016):  Looks like Saudi Arabia is changing course and plans to cut oil production to try to raise prices.

The decision at this week’s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Algiers to cut production was necessitated by Saudi Arabia’s tattered finances. The kingdom has the highest budget deficit among the world’s 20 biggest economies, it’s enduring a delay in its first international bond issue and now faces fresh legal uncertainty as the U.S. Congress voted Wednesday to allow Americans to sue the country for its involvement in 9/11.

Update (July 1, 2018):  Looks like Dear Leader thought he had an easy deal with Saudi Arabia to increase oil production by as much as 2 million barrels per day because "Prices to (sic) high!" But

A White House statement said instead that while King Salman bin Abdulaziz confirmed his country has the extra production capacity, the Saudis will “prudently” use it “if and when necessary to ensure market balance and stability, and in coordination with its producer partners, to respond to any eventuality.”

Ocean Acidity

Taro Takahashi of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University has published the most comprehensive map of ocean pH levels.  And according to a report from the U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity, the acidity of the ocean surface has increased about 26 percent since pre-industrial times.  The cost in lost ecosystem services could reach $3 trillion per year by 2100.

Do elections matter?  Only if you are concerned about the future of life on the planet.

Update (November 15):  An interview with author Gaia Vince about "the uncertain future of life on Earth".

Top Tenth Equals Bottom Ninety

A paper by Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman documents the declining share of wealth by the bottom ninety percent of U.S. families over the past thirty years while the top one tenth of one percent is now nearly an equal share.

Update (November 11):  The Saez/Zucman paper also finds wealth thresholds, averages, and share for segments of the population.

Aftermath

Any election is a mixed bag.  I'm reminded of the thought that unrealistic expectations are the major cause of unhappiness.  Analyses consider the roles of low voter turnout, bungled Democratic strategy, Republican manipulation, the record-breaking use of "dark money". Progress appears more likely at the local level.  Nationally, we are stuck in a cycle for who's in and who's out.  Andrew O'Hehir considers ways of breaking the cycle, but doesn't like what he sees.

How we might possibly get out of this mess has been the subject of considerable magical thinking on all sides. I’ll take these propositions one at a time, but here are the four big ones I see. First, there’s the idea that we’ll elect some president so charismatic and large-spirited and post-partisan that he or she will heal our wounds, reach from one fortified bunker to another and forge a new way of consensus or compromise. Yes, it’s the “transformational figure” fantasy, and you can stop laughing now. Or is that crying? Then there’s the alluring notion, extensively indulged in online comments forums, that one party will conclusively win the ideological debate and banish the other to near-permanent secondary status. (This sounds comical now, but remember that when Republicans won the House in 1994 they ended 40 uninterrupted years of Democratic majorities.) Next comes the allied but distinct notion that demographic change will doom one party to irrelevance, or force it to change into something unrecognizably different. (You get only one guess.) Finally, if we conclude that none of those things is likely to happen any time soon, we introduce a fourth possibility, the big unforeseen event that leads to implosion, collapse, transformation or revolution. That one sounds the most far-fetched, but it’s a little like Nietzsche’s proverb about the abyss: The longer you look at it, the more irresistible it becomes.

All those far-fetched possibilities, taken together, add up to a not-impossible medium-term future in which the United States either ceases to exist – an event, sad to say, that would be widely celebrated around the world – or becomes something very different from what it is now. If such a thing happened, it could go in all sorts of dreadful directions. But I’m honestly not sure it would be worse than the more plausible disaster scenario, the world-historical transformation that is already well underway.

That’s the one in which the United States is slowly bankrupted into permanent dependency by endless, secret foreign wars while tiny cadres of the ultra-rich squabble over control of the economy. Electoral politics is angrily contested over a narrow but contentious range of lifestyle issues, and drives away all but the most committed culture warriors on either side. Nothing is done about the warming climate, the poisoning of the air, water and soil, the elimination of biodiversity or the mass extinction of other species. Lost in our 14-hour workdays and our consumer bubbles of pretend affluence, we don’t really pay attention, although we’re sad about the pandas and the polar bears and we hope somebody will do something about it eventually. In due course the political stalemate between Republicans and Democrats stops mattering, stops existing and is gone with the wind.

Update (November 12):  It must be nice to get elected by running against all the problems you helped to create.

Update (November 23):  The prospects for future elections looks rather dismal.  One imagines that the lowest turnout in 72 years must be considered a great success by the party who benefits. Lynn Stuart Parramore considers how so many people are traumatized by modern life in America.

Trauma is not just about experiencing wars and sexual violence, though there is plenty of that. Psychology researchers have discussed trauma as something intense that happens in your life that you can’t adequately respond to, and which causes you long-lasting negative effects. It’s something that leaves you fixated and stuck, acting out your unresolved feelings over and over.

Trauma occupies a space much bigger than our individual neurons: it’s political. If your parents lost their jobs, their home or their sense of security in the wake of the financial crisis, you will carry those wounds with you, even if conditions improve. Budget cuts to education and the social safety net produce trauma. Falling income produces trauma. Job insecurity produces trauma.

What then, are we supposed to do with our anguish? Part of our despair comes from participating in a system that is so damaging to so many, so brutal to our natures, both the physical environment and our internal selves. I eat a tomato knowing that the person who picked it may well have been an abused undocumented immigrant. I use products like Google knowing that my personal information is being used for purposes of profit and control. I vote for a candidate knowing that inaction and betrayal are the likely outcomes of putting this person in power. I can’t get away from it.

I think we all have many selves, and I know that I have a self that is so angry and disgusted it simply wants to numb out, to immerse itself in the distractions of shallow consumer culture and look away from things it feels helpless to change.

In the act of writing to myself and to you, I am reminded that we are bound, and that even if a dark age is looming, we can still pass the light between us. I can't fool myself into thinking that the ogre is not coming — but walking to meet him together is much better than standing alone.

Update (December 6):  Anat Shenker-Osorio and Jeffery Parcher urge what might be called evidence-based activism.

We have a choice. We can continue to lament election results and the seeming lack of active constituency to make America less plutocratic or we can learn from hard data and reorient our efforts along lines we know will activate our base, persuade Americans in the middle, and call out those who profited from plunging us into recession and fight to keep clutching the spoils.

Update (January 4, 2015):  Sean McElwee says that a liberal resurgence requires the mass mobilization of voters, a stable of progressive leaders, and getting money out of politics.

Update (January 16, 2015):  People outside the United States are inclined to ask, "Is this country crazy?"  Yes.

Update (February 8, 2015):  Bill Curry says a progressive movement is more important than winning elections.

Groundwater Crisis

An article in Nature Climate Change describes the growing depletion of aquifers worldwide. Exceeding the rate of replenishment, in some cases due to drought, threatens agricultural production.

The ongoing California drought is evident in these maps of dry season (Sept–Nov) total water storage anomalies (in millimeter equivalent water height; anomalies with respect to 2005–2010). California’s Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins have lost roughly 15 km3 of total water per year since 2011 — more water than all 38 million Californians use for domestic and municipal supplies annually — over half of which is due to groundwater pumping in the Central Valley.

Changes in groundwater mass are tracked by NASA's GRACE satellite.

Update (June 28, 2016):  A study from Stanford shows nearly three times as much ground water in California's Central Valley than previously estimated. But it may be threatened with contamination from oil and gas drilling.

Eight Facts About Inequality

Pierce Nahigyen presents these facts about the United States:

1) 400 Americans have more wealth than half of all Americans combined. 

2) America has the second-highest level of income inequality, after Chile. 

3) The current state of inequality can be traced back to 1979. 

4) Non-union wages are also affected by the decline of unions. 

5) There is less opportunity for intergenerational mobility. 

6) Tax cuts to the wealthiest have not improved the economy or created more jobs. 

7) Incomes for the top 1% have increased (but the top 0.01% make even more). 

8) The majority of Congress does not feel your pain.

Update (October 25):  Along the same lines, Richard Escow lists seven ways the "American Dream" is coming to an end.

1. Most people can’t get ahead financially.

2. The stay-at-home parent is a thing of the past.

3. The rich are more debt-free. Others have no choice.

4. Student debt is crushing a generation of non-wealthy Americans.

5. Vacations aren’t for the likes of you anymore.

6. Even with health insurance, medical care is increasingly unaffordable for most people. 

7. Americans can no longer look forward to a secure retirement.

Update (July 17, 2015):  Larry Schwartz offers 35 facts about inequality. Just one example: Mean wealth for an American adult is between $250,000 to $300,000, but the median wealth is only about $39,000.

Inequality Still Rising

The Global Wealth Report 2014 from Credit Suisse shows that, by one measure (wealth to income ratio), wealth inequality is at the highest point since the Great Depression.  The report also says that the top one percent in the world own 48 percent of the wealth.

Update (October 25):  Lynn Stuart Parramore points out how the Credit Suisse report supports Thomas Piketty's contention that we're returning to a world of extreme inequality.

Update (November 7):  Paul Buchheit highlights five facts from the Global Wealth Databook 2014.

1. Each Year Since the Recession, America's Richest 1% Have Made More Than the Cost of All U.S. Social Programs

2. Almost None of the New 1% Wealth Led To Innovation and Jobs

3. Just 47 Wealthy Americans Own More Than Half of the U.S. Population

4. The Upper Middle Class of America Owns a Smaller Percentage of Wealth Than the Corresponding Groups in All Major Nations Except Russia and Indonesia.

5. Ten Percent of the World's Total Wealth Was Taken by the Global 1% in the Past Three Years.

Update (January 2, 2015):  An interview with Joseph Stiglitz on why the rich are getting richer and Paul Krugman worries about parallels to 1930s Europe.

Update (October 25, 2015):  Paul Buchheit again has five facts from the Global Wealth Databook 2015.

1. Of the Half-Billion Poorest Adults in the World, One out of Ten is an American

2. The Richest 1/10 of American Adults Have Averaged Over $1 Million Each in New Wealth Since the Recession

3. The US is the Only Region Where the Middle-Class Does Not Own Its Equivalent Share of Wealth

4. For a Full 70% of Americans, Percentage Ownership of National Wealth is One of the Lowest in the World

5. Only Kazakhstan, Libya, Russia, and Ukraine Have Worse Wealth Inequality than the United States

Ocean Warming Underestimated

Studies published in Nature Climate Change indicate that the upper layer of oceans in the Southern Hemisphere have been warming faster than previously suggested.

Update (October 13):  Joe Romm argues that the 2 degree Celsius limit on atmospheric warming is now even more urgent.  "It's worse than we thought."

Update (October 20):  Dahl Jamail has an overview of stories about how climate change has been underestimated.

Update (June 1, 2015):  Big changes are coming to the oceans.

Declining Wildlife Populations

The Living Planet Report 2014 from WWF shows that representative populations for over 3000 species have declined by 52 percent since 1970.

Update (October 29, 2016):  This year's report estimates an average loss of 58 percent since 1970.

Update (October 30, 2018):  And the new report states a loss of 60 percent in just over 40 years.

Update (September 10, 2020):  The Living Planet Report 2020 shows continued loss of wildlife.

The Living Planet Index (LPI), managed by the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) in partnership with WWF, tracks the abundance of 20,811 populations of 4,392 species across the globe. The latest version of WWF's flagship publication reveals that the LPI "shows an average 68% decrease in population sizes of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish between 1970 and 2016."

Update (September 13, 2020):  Matthew Rozsa quotes Jeff Opperman about the WWF report:

Our planet is sending alarm signals between recent wildfires, the COVID-19 pandemic, and other extreme weather events. We're seeing our broken relationship with nature play out in our own backyards. The steep global decline of wildlife populations is a key indicator that ecosystems are in peril.

Update (September 23, 2020):  Robert Hunziker also discusses the WWF report.

These warnings of impending loss of ecosystems, and by extension survival of Homo sapiens, depict a biosphere on a hot seat never before seen throughout human history. In fact, there is no time in recorded history that compares to the dangers immediately ahead. The most common watchword used by scientists is "unprecedented".

Heat Waves More Likely

A report published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society finds that "human-caused climate change greatly increased the risk for the extreme heat waves" investigated within the study. Human influence on other extreme weather events was less clear.

Don't Call it War

Nothing brings the country together like deciding we need to go overseas and kill some people. Chelsea Manning urges that we should exercise the discipline to let ISIS self-destruct.  But sanity is not a popular position in Congress.

Patrick Smith sees the incredible mess we have made in the Middle East as hastening the decline of the American empire.

There is next to no chance that Washington will “degrade and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State, to take Obama’s noted words for the mission. There is next to every chance that, as in Afghanistan and during Iraq Wars I and II, the military presence will win ISIS support because they speak for the perfectly well-grounded anti-Western resentment that spreads wide and deep across the Middle East.

It's an ugly situation largely of our own making.  It's as if Obama has no power to seek out any other path.  Hope fades.  And the discouragement over the fact that nothing ever really changes easily drives people, maybe especially younger people, away from the political engagement we desperately need.

White House attorneys ... can advance flimsy legal arguments for Iraq War III, but taking Americans into war without declaring one, without calling it one, without congressional approval and without public consent is illegal by any constitutional interpretation not intended to obfuscate. For Americans, this is as significant as the violence that is now to be inflicted in their names on innocent civilians in the Middle East.

Since we can no longer speak plainly of what we are doing, we export it from the language to the land — vast now — of the unsayable. To me this is an unmistakable expression of the burden of silent shame and a vaguely focused depression many, many Americans feel in the face of what is done in their names, even as they cannot articulate it.

A certain faith is required — a faith that something will follow this time, something one can assist in bringing forth. Ray McGovern, the honorable veteran of the CIA now an active opponent of our corrupted political culture, put it this way in a speech Alternative Radio recorded last autumn: We shift attention from the flooding rains to the building of arks.

Eleven billion

A report published by Science called "World population stabilization unlikely this century" gives an 80 percent chance for 9.6 to 12.3 billion people by 2100.  This contrasts with previous projections that had population stabilizing or peaking at around 9 billion.  Naturally, this complicates scenarios for carbon dioxide emissions and for food production.

Update (October 28):  A study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that various scenarios to reduce population have very little long-term impact.  This study projects a population of 10.4 billion by 2100.

Update (March 2, 2015):  The book Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot looks at the impact of human population on the planet.

Update (August 11, 2015):  A United Nations analysis projects 11.2 billion people by 2100.

Update (July 14, 2019):  A reminder from Stephen Corry that growing populations (such as in Africa) in and of themselves aren't the biggest problem.

[I]f overpopulation is a problem because it strains the world’s resources, then the first and most efficient way to address it is not in Africa at all, it’s to reduce consumption in the North, which currently uses far more than its share of resources. Secondarily, if rates of population growth continue to fall when standards of living go up, then the easiest way of addressing that – inside Africa – would likely be to stop the massive resource outflow from the continent, and ensure more of its vast natural wealth remains with and starts fairly benefiting its natural owners.

In other words, to address “overpopulation,” the richer countries must do two things – consume less and stop stealing Africa’s resources. Both imply less for the Global North, and of course that’s the real problem with my simplified explanation.

Moral Imperative

Economics is one aspect of preventing catastrophic climate change, but there are arguments for the ethics as well.  David Roberts paraphrases the choice outlined by White House science advisor John Holdren:

We will respond to climate change with some mix of mitigation, adaptation, and suffering; all that remains to be determined is the mix.

Suffering is, of course, the "do nothing" path.  And Roberts makes the case that while mitigation efforts benefit the entire world, adaptation only helps in a local sense.

[F]or every day mitigation is delayed, the need for adaptation grows, most especially in places that will depend on the ongoing largesse of wealthier nations to pay for it. That’s not a recipe for egalitarian outcomes.

In an interview, Naomi Klein sees the need to combine morality with self-interest:

It’s immoral to allow countries to disappear beneath the waves when we have the power to prevent that from happening. It’s immoral to leave our children a world that is depleted of life and fraught with intense dangers that are also preventable. But I also make the argument that the things we need to do to stop catastrophic warming, they underline how interconnected we all are. If you look at relationships between the global north and the global south for instance, you can make moral arguments for why we should have more aid going to developing countries, and those are good arguments. But what climate does is it also adds a self-interest to that, where it’s not only that there needs to be more equity between the global north and the global south, it’s that unless we do this, them we can be pretty much guaranteed countries like China and India will continue developing on a path that is going to destabilize the global climate system. So unless we embrace principles of climate equity, we’re all cooked. It’s both moral and it’s self-interested.

Joe Romm discusses the essential points from her book, This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs The Climate.

Because we have ignored the increasingly urgent warnings and pleas for action from climate scientists for a quarter century now, the incremental or evolutionary paths to avert catastrophic global warming that we might have been able to take in the past are closed to us. 

Humanity faces a stark choice as a result: The end of civilization as we know it or the end of capitalism as we know it. 

Choosing “unregulated capitalism” over human civilization would be a “morally monstrous” choice — and so the winning message for the climate movement is a moral one.

Update (September 24):  Lindsay Abrams investigates how inequality impacts international adaptation efforts.

Update (September 29):  Robert Jensen reviews Klein's book.

Update (October 24, 2015):  Jonathan Chait thinks Klein is offering dangerous advice.

Climate and Economy

A report from the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate called The New Climate Economy concludes that preventing a 2 degree Celsius rise in global mean temperature can be accomplished with about $4 trillion or about 4.5 percent more than projected energy spending.

Update (September 19):  Paul Krugman criticizes both those on the right who only seem to be defending fossil fuel interests, and those on the left who say the end of growth is the only effective climate action.

Climate despair is all wrong. The idea that economic growth and climate action are incompatible may sound hardheaded and realistic, but it’s actually a fuzzy-minded misconception. If we ever get past the special interests and ideology that have blocked action to save the planet, we’ll find that it’s cheaper and easier than almost anyone imagines.

But just because the economics are favorable, doesn't mean the political will is there.  Inequality comes into it simply due to the imbalance of political influence.  A net cost might be near zero, but leaving fossil fuels in the ground is going to a huge loss for someone.

Update (September 20):  Rebecca Solnit says that "only collective action can save us now".

Update (September 21):  About 300,000 in New York City at the People's Climate March with as many as a couple thousand other events in 166 countries.

Update (October 13):  A study from World Resources Institute also points to many economic benefits from combating climate change.

Rising Carbon Dioxide

The World Meteorological Organization reports that the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration averaged 396 parts per million in 2013.  The increase from 2012 to 2013 was the largest in nearly 30 years.  That seems to be due to not only greater emissions, but also reduced uptake in the biosphere.

Update (September 13):  More on the disruption of the carbon cycle.

Update (November 9, 2015):  The World Meteorological Organization says that the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration averaged 397.7 parts per million in 2014.

Losing Ground

A report from the Economic Policy Institute shows how rising income inequality in the U.S. costs most people money.  Real income has been growing faster at the higher end, which leaves the typical middle-class household worse off than they would have been.

Update (September 4):  A survey by the Federal Reserve reports that the top 3 percent earn 30.5 percent of all income and hold 54.4 percent of the wealth in the U.S.

Update (September 6):  Wealth trends from the Federal Reserve survey.

Update (October 11, 2015):  The tie between productivity and compensation was broken 40 years ago.

Climate Synthesis

A draft of the Synthesis Report for AR5 from IPCC gives the bluntest language yet for where we are at:

Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system.

Without additional mitigation, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally.

Update (August 27):  President Obama is seeking ways to reach a climate agreement without having to get the 67 votes needed in the U.S. Senate for a treaty.   It's pretty disgusting to have a political system where acting responsibly is practically impossible.

Update (August 29):  Republicans are already shouting "tyranny".

Update (November 2):  The Synthesis Report is now released.  According to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon,

Science has spoken. There is no ambiguity in their message. Leaders must act. Time is not on our side.

Update (November 3):  More about the report.  Joe Romm calls it "incredibly alarming--while at the same time . . . terrifically hopeful."

Update (November 15):  Gideon Polya describes how AR5 downplays the seriousness of climate change.

Financial Priorities

Paul Buchheit uses six numbers to give a quick overview of who benefits in the U.S. economy:

$220 Billion: Teacher Salaries
$246 Billion: State and Local Pensions
$398 Billion: Safety Net
$863 Billion: Social Security
$2,200 Billion: Tax Avoidance
$5,000 Billion: Investment Wealth

In other words,

$8,600 for each of the  Safety Net recipients
$14,600 for each of the  Social Security recipients
$27,333 for each of the  Pension recipients
$54,740 for each of the  Teachers
$200,000 for each of the  Tax Break recipients among the richest 1%
$500,000 for each of the  Investment Income recipients among the richest 1%