Fourth National Climate Assessment

Volume II is now released. The assessment is required every four years. Volume I was released last year. From the overview:

With substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., consistent with the very low scenario), the increase in global annual average temperature relative to preindustrial times could be limited to less than 3.6°F (2°C). Without significant greenhouse gas mitigation, the increase in global annual average temperature could reach 9°F or more by the end of this century.

Update (November 25):  If there are future historians, they will not look kindly on a Republican Party that shrugs off the urgency of climate change. Senator Jodi Ernst:

We know that our climate is changing. Our climate always changes and we see those ebb and flows through time.

Update (November 27):  So the Press Secretary complains that the climate assessment is based on models--it's not "data-driven". "It's not based on facts." So what facts from the future should we be using?

But really, we're just counting down the days to the end of all, listening to Dear Leader.

One of the problems that a lot of people like myself, we have very high levels of intelligence but we’re not necessarily such believers. You look at our air and our water and it’s right now at a record clean. ... As to whether or not it’s man-made and whether or not the effects that you’re talking about are there, I don’t see it — not nearly like it is.

Update (November 29):  A report published in The Lancet outlines the health impacts of climate change.

A rapidly changing climate has dire implications for every aspect of human life, exposing vulnerable populations to extremes of weather, altering patterns of infectious disease, and compromising food security, safe drinking water, and clean air.

Update (December 3):  Senator Bernie Sanders hosted a town hall presentation on climate change.

Update (December 5):  A report from the Global Carbon Project projects an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 2.7 percent this year--up from 1.6 percent last year. The leadership hasn't been there to cut emissions and promote ideas like a climate jobs guarantee.

Update (December 23):  Two studies conclude that there has been no statistically significant "pause" in global warming. According to Michael Mann:

There was a natural slowdown in the rate of warming during roughly the decade of the 2000s due to a combination of volcanic influences and internal climate variability, but there was no actual 'hiatus' or 'pause' in warming.

Update (January 16, 2019):  A report from Oil Change International shows that fracking will be a disaster for the climate.

Between 2018 and 2050, U.S. drilling into new oil and gas reserves could unlock 120 billion metric tons of new carbon pollution, which is equivalent to the lifetime CO2 emissions of nearly 1,000 coal-fired power plants. If not curtailed, U.S. oil and gas expansion will impede the rest of the world’s ability to manage a climate-safe, equitable decline of oil and gas production.

Standing Up to a Bully

Earlier this year, Michelle Wolf upset some people with sharp humor and so the White House Correspondents' Association decided to scrap having a comedian next year. Naturally, Dear Leader had to spew his idiocy--finding it easier to attack performers rather than murderous autocrats. And Wolf tweeted this response:

I bet you’d be on my side if I had killed a journalist.

Laura Bradley explains Wolf's further dig.

She added the hashtag "#BeBest," a sarcastic reference to [the First Lady's] anti-bullying campaign.

This is How Republicans Win

Stacey Abrams ended her campaign for governor of Georgia, but made no concession.

[M]ore than a million citizens found their names stripped from the rolls by the secretary of state, including a 92-year-old civil rights activist who had cast her ballot in the same neighborhood since 1968. Tens of thousands hung in limbo, rejected due to human error and a system of suppression that had already proven its bias. The remedy, they were told, was simply to show up. Only they, like thousands of others, found polling places shut down, understaffed, ill-equipped, or simply unable to serve its basic function for lack of a power cord. Students drove hours to hometowns because mismanagement prevented absentee ballots from arriving on time. Parents stood in the fitful rain in four-hour lines, watching as other voters had to abandon democracy in favor of keeping their jobs and collecting a paycheck. Eligible voters were refused ballots because poll workers didn't think they had enough paper to go around. Ballots were rejected by the handwriting police. Citizens tried to exercise their constitutional rights and were still denied the right to elect their leaders.

Under the watch of the now-former secretary of state, Democracy failed Georgia.

Update (November 27):  Abrams has filed a lawsuit over voter suppression in the 2018 election.

Update (November 29):  An additional lawsuit charges that Georgia's election system is unconstitutional.

Update (December 3):  Republicans have a new tactic:  Change the rules when you do lose an election.

Wisconsin Republicans moved quickly Monday with a rare lame-duck session that would change the 2020 presidential primary date to benefit a conservative Supreme Court justice and weaken the newly elected Democratic governor and attorney general.

Update (December 5):  They have no shame. And Wisconsin is not the only state involved. Stealing ballots isn't enough in North Carolina. And Michigan is trying "to gut a bill that would’ve raised the state’s minimum wage and given workers access to paid sick leave".

Update (December 7):  Scott Bateman illustrates how democracy works.

Update (March 22, 2019):  A Wisconsin judge has blocked a package of laws passed to weaken incoming Democratic officials after the 2018 election.

Update (July 14, 2019):  Even when Democrats control the entire state government, Republicans still find a way.

Update (August 30, 2019):  The House Oversight Committee is investigating an unusual pattern of undervotes in the Georgia Lt. Governor's election last year. Andrew O'Hehir explains that there's a typical "drop-off" in votes since people tend to be less interested in lower offices up for election. But, going against the trend, Lt. Governor had greater drop-off than lower contests. And:

An analysis by the Democratic data-tracking firm TargetSmart found that the drop-off "grew even more extreme in precincts with large African American populations".

Update (September 12, 2019):  The slimy North Carolina Republicans thought it would be clever to override a veto by scheduling a vote while most Democrats were at a 9/11 memorial.

In a stunning display of contempt for democracy, House Speaker Tim Moore, a Cleveland County Republican, called a surprise vote to overturn Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of the state budget just after a session opened at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday. Democratic lawmakers and the media had been told by Republican leaders that there would be no vote in the morning.

Update (June 13, 2020):  While other states seem to be figuring out how to expand voting by mail, Georgia had major problems with its primary this year. Andrea Young:

The ACLU warned that insufficient resources were allocated for polling places, machines, in-person election staff, and staff to process absentee ballots and that this would result in the disenfranchisement of voters in 2020. It gives us no pleasure to be proven right.

Whether it is incompetence or intentional voter suppression, the result is the same—Georgians denied their rights as citizens in this democracy.

And now Republicans are worried suppression will be "weaponized". 

Democratic turnout among white and black voters was high in this week’s elections, even in predominantly GOP precincts. They fear it could reach historic levels in November if Democrats manage to demonize Republicans as actively suppressing minorities from voting.

The Great War

President Emmanuel Macron marks the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I in Paris.

The traces of this war never went away.

The old demons are rising again. We must reaffirm before our peoples our true and huge responsibility.

Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism. Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism. In saying 'Our interests first, whatever happens to the others,' you erase the most precious thing a nation can have, that which makes it live, that which causes it to be great and that which is most important: Its moral values.

Update (November 14):  Dennis Morgan wonders if people really understand that war.

[T]he worst thing about World War I is that it led to World War II. It was not two wars – it was the continuation of the same, stupid, useless war that had no meaning, no virtue, and no heroics.

Update (January 30, 2019):  Michael Welton visits an exhibition about the war.

In Praise of Gridlock

While the Senate is a disaster, Democrats are projected to control the House. Governors are a mixed bag. Florida is awful, but in perhaps the most significant result, voting rights have been restored to ex-felons there.

Update (November 7):  It's important to recognize the good stuff. But Jonathan Cohn explains the uphill battle.

It’s no secret why Democrats nevertheless emerged with fewer Senate seats. The Constitution gives disproportionate power to small states in the upper chamber, which in the current political alignment means conservative-leaning states have extra representation. This is an ongoing problem that will undermine Democrats in the next election just as surely as it did this one.

A similar problem plagues the House, where the incoming Democratic majority is probably smaller than it might have been because of partisan gerrymandering. And the newly elected Democrats who won in Republican-leaning districts like Michigan’s 8th are sure to face difficult challenges winning re-election in two years. As gerrymandering expert Dave Daley told HuffPost recently, "If it requires a generational wave to give Democrats [the House], that’s a sign of just how powerful gerrymandering is, not a sign that it can be conquered."

Update (November 9):  It turns out the Senate may not be quite the disaster it seemed to be initially. Florida is heading to a recount and the Democrat in Arizona has taken the lead.

Update (November 11):  At 47 percent, the midterm election turnout was the highest since 1966.

And Andrew O'Hehir sorts through the punditry to find the most useful conclusions.

One of those is that American politics are highly dysfunctional and our society remains bitterly divided, and these problems will not be easy to solve. Another is that this week’s remarkable events mean something. If we give them water, oxygen and time to unfold, we may find out what.

Update (November 12):  Noah Berlatsky sees a long road ahead.

[Drumpfism] in 2018 received a check. But racism, sexism, conspiracy-mongering, lying and hatred ― in short, fascism ― remain for Republicans a viable electoral path. Defeating [Drumpfism] means outvoting fascism, and simultaneously changing the system so that outvoting fascism actually has an effect. To do both will require fighting for many years beyond 2018.

Meanwhile, the election of Kyrsten Sinema to the U.S. Senate is a very good sign.

Update (November 13):  It's very dangerous when candidates and national leaders charge "fraud" before all the votes are counted. Steven Huefner explains:

[I]t is beyond unseemly – indeed, it is downright destructive of public trust in our elections, and fundamentally inconsistent with the health of our representative democracy – for candidates to assert or imply that the reason that Election Night results have been changing in the past few days is because election officials have engaged in some sort of irregular or unlawful conduct to manipulate the results. For anyone who cares about democratic institutions, the responsible position is to let the counting proceed according to state law, and then if necessary to take advantage of recount, audit, and contest processes to ascertain whether any defects occurred in these processes.

The good news is that Judge Amy Totenberg ordered Georgia to delay certification so that provisional ballots can be reviewed properly. Republicans seem to assume that as long as they get close enough in an election, then they simply win no matter what process is in place--as shown by efforts to block Maine's ranked choice voting.

Update (November 14):  There are reports that Dear Leader is increasingly erratic since the election. Heather Digby Parton knows why.

He lost, and his followers will never see him the same way again.

Once a con man is exposed, he blows town and moves on to the next mark. But [Fuckface von Clownstick] is the president of the United States. He's trapped and he has nowhere else to go.

Update (November 18):  Paul Rosenberg argues the new Democratic House will get nowhere by "playing nice".

[W]hat Democrats can and should do instead [is push for] broadly popular proposals and [take] principled stands, to define in detail their own inclusive vision of what America can and will be.

Update (November 28):  The final races have been decided. The Senate stands at 53 to 47 for the Republicans, a gain of two. The House is at 235 to 200 for the Democrats, a gain of forty.

Update (January 7, 2019):  Ex-felons in Florida can begin registering to vote tomorrow.

Update (January 26, 2019):  Implementing expanded voter registration is still running into some problems in Florida.

Update (March 19, 2019):  Florida is still tinkering with the restoration of voting rights with a proposal to require the repayment of fines and fees which could impact over half a million potential voters.

Update (March 20, 2019):  Former Governor candidate Andrew Gillum is pushing a goal of 1 million new registered voters in Florida.

Update (March 22, 2019):  A study by the Associated Press finds that gerrymandering helped Republicans hold on to as many as 16 House seats in the 2018 election.

Update (April 25, 2019):  The Florida House did approve a bill requiring the repayment of fees before ex-felons are allowed to vote.

Update (June 28, 2019):  Governor Ron DeSantis signed the poll tax into law. Stephen Wolf explains the impact.

By demanding that citizens pay all court fines and fees, Republicans could effectively roll back most of the 2018 amendment. It’s unclear just how many people would have had their rights restored by the new amendment, but one analysis estimates Republicans’ actions could keep roughly four-fifths of them from voting—keeping up to 1.1 million more people permanently disenfranchised—all because they’re too poor to pay court costs. Black defendants in particular are considerably less likely to be able to pay off all their court costs than white defendants, according to one study.

Update (May 24, 2020):  U.S. District Court Judge Robert Hinkle ruled the Florida law unconstitutional.

The State of Florida has adopted a system under which nearly a million otherwise-eligible citizens will be allowed to vote only if they pay an amount of money. Most citizens lack the financial resources to make the required payment … This pay-to-vote system would be universally decried as unconstitutional but for one thing: each citizen at issue was convicted, at some point in the past, of a felony offense.