Unraveling

The annual Arctic Report Card from NOAA paints a grim picture. 

Another ramification of the dramatic warming of the Arctic is that permafrost is now releasing more greenhouse gases, like methane, which is 100 times more potent of a greenhouse gas than CO2, during the winter. The report notes that this is happening now at a rate faster than that at which plants can absorb the gas during the summer, which means the Arctic has now become a net source of heat-trapping pollution.

Update (December 18):  More from Andrea Thompson.

Update (January 7, 2017):  An interview with Jennifer Francis from the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University about arctic records. And Joe Romm discusses the global loss of sea ice.

Systems with amplifying feedbacks tend to have tipping points beyond which change is irreversible. In the case of the great polar ice sheets that will drive catastrophic sea level rise and ultimately inundate every major coastal city, we appear to be dangerously close to such tipping points.

Update (July 16, 2017):  "Arctic Heat Is Becoming More Common and Persistent".

Since 1979, the number of warm events has doubled and the number of days with mild air has tripled. There are now 21 days of mild weather at the North Pole in an average winter compared to just seven mild winter days at the start of record keeping.

Update (December 20, 2017):  This year's report card finds that "the region is now definitively trending toward an ice-free state".

Shortly after the beginning of the 21st Century, the Arctic began an environmental transition so extensive that it caught scientists, policymakers, and residents by surprise. The extent and duration of these transitions define the New Arctic, characterized by the lowest winter maximum in sea ice cover on record for 2017, the persistent and record warming of sea surface temperatures across the Arctic, and the downward trend in total ice mass of the Greenland ice sheet, just to name a few.

Update (December 12, 2018):  This year's report card finds that melting at both poles has been worse than previously thought. It notes that 95 percent of the Arctic's oldest ice has melted in the past 30 years.

Update (December 13, 2019):  This year's report card continues the bad news.

The Arctic could be releasing upwards of 600 million tons of net carbon per year, the report finds, potentially putting the region alongside Mexico, Canada, and South Korea as one of the world’s largest contributors to atmospheric CO2.

Hard Rain

Is Bob Dylan's poetry still relevant? Absolutely.

Update (June 7, 2017):  Dylan's recorded Nobel lecture.

Russian Hack

The Washington Post reports the CIA conclusion that Russia was acting on behalf of the Republican nominee. But does it matter? Heather Digby Parton notes that FBI director James Comey's letters swung enough late-deciding voters to shift key states.

It is very hard to escape the conclusion that Comey knew exactly what he was doing. If the Russians didn’t give us [the Republican nominee], the FBI director did.

Update (December 17):  Oh, good, the FBI now agrees with the CIA assessment. That should take care of the problem.

Update (December 18):  Andrew O'Hehir thinks we may not know all the machinations behind this year's election for a long time. And that's not our biggest problem.

Those who want to argue that American democracy is perfectly OK and the Democratic Party is perfectly OK, for example, can cherry-pick whichever marginal factors they prefer. If the only reason Hillary Clinton lost the election to a moronic demagogue and professed sexual predator was because of Russian sabotage, then there’s no reason not to keep on running candidates like her into the indefinite future.

Update (June 7, 2017):  While the hard left is highly skeptical, a leaked NSA document seems to show actual interference.

Update (July 2, 2018):  Looks like Russia had something to do with the British referendum on the European Union.

Update (July 3, 2018):  This is interesting.

The Republican-run Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday repudiated [Fuckface von Clownstick's] denials that Russia interfered to help his 2016 campaign. But the release of the report—at around 3pm, just before the July 4 holiday—suggests that the Senate Republicans are eager to keep their differences with [Dear Leader] out of the sunlight.

The report endorses the January 6, 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment, or ICA, finding Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 with the goals of undermining Americans' faith in the democratic process and denigrating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The assessment also concludes that Russia "developed a clear preference for" [Orangeman].

Update (July 4, 2018):  It should be noted that the House Intelligence Committee reached a different conclusion than the Senate committee and that the House has been pressuring the Department of Justice to disclose information about informants. Now Marcy Wheeler has disclosed that she is one of many sources the FBI generally seeks to protect.

The Republicans' ceaseless effort to find out more details about people who've shared information with the government puts those people in serious jeopardy.

I'm speaking out because they can't — and shouldn't have to.

It infuriates me to observe (and cover) a months-long charade by the House GOP to demand more and more details about those who have shared information with the government, at least some of whom were only trying to prevent real damage to innocent people, all in an attempt to discredit the Mueller investigation.

Update (July 28, 2018):  Timothy Summers analyzes how Russia's hacking activities worked.

Update (December 20, 2018):  In an interview with Chauncey DeVega, Kathleen Hall Jamieson says it it probable, but not certain, the Russians swung the 2016 election.

The Russians were able to change the climate of communication for some voters and members of the public through social media in ways that disadvantaged Hillary Clinton. The Russians were able to change the media agenda and questions asked during two presidential debates in ways that disadvantaged Hillary Clinton. The Russians and their disinformation campaign may have influenced a consequential decision by James Comey to make public the reopening of the FBI investigation into the Clinton email server on Oct. 28, 2016, in ways that decisively impacted the election.

Update (July 27, 2019):  The Senate Intelligence Committee has produced a report:

[T]he first section of its report on 2016 Russian interference, which found that hackers likely tried to access election systems in all 50 states, confirm[s] widespread fears that America’s election system may not be secure from attack.

Not to worry.  The Major Leader is all over it.

Mitch McConnell blocked two election security measures on Thursday, arguing Democrats are trying to give themselves a "political benefit."

Update (September 29, 2019):  Among the conversations the White House has kept hidden:

[During a 2017 Oval Office meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak], [Dear Leader] purportedly said he was not concerned about Moscow's meddling in the United States' 2016 presidential election because the U.S. has done the same abroad.