IEA Report

This year's report from the International Energy Agency forecasts that the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil producer.  This increased production seems largely due to the hydraulic fracturing of shale.  It's not clear how much of the potential will pan out or what the net energy return would be.

Of perhaps greater significance is a statement in the report that no more than one third of proven fossil fuel reserves can be consumed by 2050 if global warming is to stay below 2 degrees Celsius.  Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emissions grew by 2.5 percent in 2011.

Update (November 19):  Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed takes a critical view of fracking.

Update (November 22):  A report by PricewaterhouseCoopers concludes that staying below the 2 degree Celsius target requires 5.1 percent annual reductions in carbon emissions (relative to GDP) for the next 40 years.

Update (November 30):  Michael Klare points out that the US will be the top oil producer by default as Saudi and Russian production declines.

Update (December 3):  Robert Howarth argues that fracking will speed up climate change.

Update (April 1, 2013):  Brad Jacobson reports that shale gas production has been hyped and may not be sustainable.

Update (April 5, 2014):  Michael Klare gives examples of "carbon delirium".

Update (May 21, 2014):  Louis Sahagun reports that the U.S. Energy Information Administration has revised their estimate of the amount of recoverable oil from the Monterey Shale deposits in California.  The new estimate of 600 million barrels (about one month of U.S. consumption) is about 96 percent below a previous estimate of 13.7 billion barrels.  The Monterey formation contains two-thirds of the U.S. shale oil reserves.

Update (June 7, 2014):  IEA estimates that $48 trillion needs to be invested to meet growing energy demand by 2035.  Richard Heinberg points out that the oil industry is actually cutting back on investment because oil prices are too low to justify development of harder to reach sources.