Peak Need for Farmland

"Peak Farmland" is the phrase used by authors from Rockefeller University's Program for the Human Environment to refer to the trend that less farmland will be needed to due higher crop yields and stabilizing populations.  They estimate that an area the size of ten Iowas could be taken out of production by 2060.

This phrasing isn't parallel to "Peak Oil" which refers to geological limits on oil production.

And the authors' assumptions seem troubling:  Can yields continue to rise if past results depended heavily on oil based fertilizers?  Biofuel production has already contributed to rising food prices -- is a slow rise in production reasonable in the face of peak oil?  Does it make sense to not factor in the impacts of climate change on food production?

It's not that I want to be pessimistic, but we need a realistic analysis for how issues like energy, climate, and food production intertwine.

Update (December 21):  Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services "documents how climate change is already causing rapid, massive changes."

Update (January 8, 2013):  More about the impact of climate change on food production.

Update (January 19, 2013):  New studies predict falling harvests and rising food price in the face of unchecked climate change.

Update (January 31, 2013):  World grain production and grain stocks dropped in 2012.

Update (April 20, 2013):  An overview of indications that climate change will create a global food crisis.

Update (November 1, 2013):  A report from the World Resources Institute finds that over one-fourth of the world's cropland is experiencing high water-stress.

Update (November 3, 2013):  More about water scarcity.

Update (January 12, 2014):  Peak water is the major constraint on food supplies.

Update (December 20, 2014):  A study published in Environmental Research Letters says that food production could decrease 18 percent by 2050.  Climate change could restrict water supply due to changing precipitation patterns.