Peak Oil

While the topic rarely shows up in the news, a theme issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society addresses The Future of Oil.  According to one of the co-editors, Richard G. Miller, a retired analyst with BP,

We are probably in peak oil today, or at least in the foot-hills. Production could rise a little for a few years yet, but not sufficiently to bring the price down; alternatively, continuous recession in much of the world may keep demand essentially flat for years at the $110/bbl price we have today. But we can't grow the supply at average past rates of about 1.5% per year at today's prices.

One of the studies in the theme issue by David Murphy of Northern Illinois University estimates the global EROEI for oil and gas production at 15.

... the minimum oil price needed to increase the oil supply in the near term is at levels consistent with levels that have induced past economic recessions. From these points, I conclude that, as the EROI of the average barrel of oil declines, long-term economic growth will become harder to achieve and come at an increasingly higher financial, energetic and environmental cost.

Update (January 20, 2014):  Nafeez Ahmed reports on the Transatlantic Energy Security Dialogue.  One troubling fact:  Despite a 200 to 300 percent increase of investment by the oil industry since 2000, oil supplies increase by only 12 percent.  It's a classic case of diminishing returns.

Update (January 25, 2014):  Fracking won't prevent peak oil.

Update (March 16, 2014):  Oil companies are being squeezed by the rising cost of oil production.

Update (March 28, 2014):  Matt Mushalik argues that the boom in U.S. shale oil production masks a plateau in world crude oil production going back to 2005.

Update (August 15, 2014):  Gail Tverberg explains twelve principles of "reaching limits in a finite world".

Update (September 9, 2014):  Richard Heinberg issues a reminder that peak oil is part of a constellation of problems related to unlimited growth.

Update (July 7, 2015):  Reflections on the end of oil.

Update (August 19, 2016);  Nafeez Ahmed explains that peak oil means increasing reliance on "crappy oil" during the transition to renewable energy--oil that is dirtier and more expensive to produce.

[I]f more and more energy is invested simply in the process of producing fossil fuel energy, then that higher energy input entails higher greenhouse gas emissions: an increased carbon footprint.

The shift to unconventional fossil fuels is therefore putting us on a collision course with the climate, which will “increase global greenhouse gas emissions even more than anticipated and counteract other decarbonisation endeavours.”

In the long-term, that means we’re increasing the risk of dangerous global warming. In the short-term, there’s a tangible impact right now: the economy. The more we rely on more expensive and lower quality energy to keep the economy moving, the slower the economy moves.

Update (July 2, 2017):  Sally Dugman offers a reminder that peak oil still matters.

[W]e collectively have to stop our delusions about perpetual economic growth and find another way to live from this point forward. We need to stop pretending that all is well because our myopic view of life shows no oil or other major shortfalls in the very near future.

Update (October 8, 2017):  Nafeez Ahmed analyzes China's impending peak in oil production.

China’s rapidly rising dependence on fossil fuel imports further suggests that after 2018, world oil markets will be increasingly strained by the country’s escalating demand. This could well be another potential major driver of a global oil squeeze in or after 2018, in a way that most mainstream forecasts have overlooked.

Update (November 20, 2018):  Ugo Bardi argues that the concept of peak oil is still useful despite decreased interest in recent years.

Update (July 24, 2019):  If true, these hidden little nuggets make renewable energy even more urgent: Saudi Arabia recently announced their largest oil field produces about three-fourths of what everyone thought, and the fracking industry has lost $280 billion dollars over the past 12 years.

Update (September 4, 2020):  Although U.S. oil production orginally peaked in the 1970's, fracking techology made the country the world's largest producer. But Antonia Juhasz reports the pandemic has hit the industry hard.

[O]il analysts Casey Merriman and Abhi Rajendran of Energy Intelligence expect a good deal of the US oil production cuts to be permanent. They predict that the country has reached peak oil production and will never return to the record 13 million barrels of oil per day reached in November 2019.

The pandemic has made painfully clear that there are two ways the age of oil might end. There’s the status quo path, in which we are so overcome by the disasters brought about by our oil reliance—calamities in the forms of war, political upheaval, and the climate catastrophes of worsening drought, floods, hurricanes, fires, and disease—that we are unable to consume oil. And there is a more intentional, thoughtful path, one that embraces justice, equity, and sustainability. If we take that route, the "end of oil" will be a commitment to live in peace with one another and the planet.