Not Just For the Future

A study by Katharine Ricke and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institute for Science uses computer modeling to show that maximum warming from an emission of carbon dioxide occurs in about ten years.  The warming persists for over 100 years.  Emissions reductions matter to us now.

Temperature increase from an individual emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). Time series of the marginal warming in mK (=milliKelvin = 0.001 K) per GtC (=1015 g carbon) as projected by 6000 convolution-function simulations for the first 100 years after the emission. Maximum warming occurs a median of 10.1 years after the CO2 emission event and has a median value of 2.2 mK GtC−1. The colors represent the relative density of simulations in a given region of the plot.