Fourth National Climate Assessment

Volume II is now released. The assessment is required every four years. Volume I was released last year. From the overview:

With substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., consistent with the very low scenario), the increase in global annual average temperature relative to preindustrial times could be limited to less than 3.6°F (2°C). Without significant greenhouse gas mitigation, the increase in global annual average temperature could reach 9°F or more by the end of this century.

Update (November 25):  If there are future historians, they will not look kindly on a Republican Party that shrugs off the urgency of climate change. Senator Jodi Ernst:

We know that our climate is changing. Our climate always changes and we see those ebb and flows through time.

Update (November 27):  So the Press Secretary complains that the climate assessment is based on models--it's not "data-driven". "It's not based on facts." So what facts from the future should we be using?

But really, we're just counting down the days to the end of all, listening to Dear Leader.

One of the problems that a lot of people like myself, we have very high levels of intelligence but we’re not necessarily such believers. You look at our air and our water and it’s right now at a record clean. ... As to whether or not it’s man-made and whether or not the effects that you’re talking about are there, I don’t see it — not nearly like it is.

Update (November 29):  A report published in The Lancet outlines the health impacts of climate change.

A rapidly changing climate has dire implications for every aspect of human life, exposing vulnerable populations to extremes of weather, altering patterns of infectious disease, and compromising food security, safe drinking water, and clean air.

Update (December 3):  Senator Bernie Sanders hosted a town hall presentation on climate change.

Update (December 5):  A report from the Global Carbon Project projects an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 2.7 percent this year--up from 1.6 percent last year. The leadership hasn't been there to cut emissions and promote ideas like a climate jobs guarantee.

Update (December 23):  Two studies conclude that there has been no statistically significant "pause" in global warming. According to Michael Mann:

There was a natural slowdown in the rate of warming during roughly the decade of the 2000s due to a combination of volcanic influences and internal climate variability, but there was no actual 'hiatus' or 'pause' in warming.

Update (January 16, 2019):  A report from Oil Change International shows that fracking will be a disaster for the climate.

Between 2018 and 2050, U.S. drilling into new oil and gas reserves could unlock 120 billion metric tons of new carbon pollution, which is equivalent to the lifetime CO2 emissions of nearly 1,000 coal-fired power plants. If not curtailed, U.S. oil and gas expansion will impede the rest of the world’s ability to manage a climate-safe, equitable decline of oil and gas production.